China News Service, Beijing, August 24th. Title: The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been in half a year, and the five major variables have affected the trend
Author Gantian
It has been half a year since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, and there is still no sign of a ceasefire so far. However, this is known as the "largest geopolitical crisis in Europe since World War II" has completely changed the world situation: the economies of many countries have not yet emerged from the shadow of the epidemic, and are facing inflation, supply chain disruptions and energy crisis. The West and Russia are in a state of turbulence, tearing apart the already fragile international security pattern.
disputes continue. It is generally believed that the originally planned "lightning raid" operation is likely to last for several years. The upcoming winter may become a "key node" of conflict, and among them, five major variables may affect future trends.
Data map: On March 1, local time, two explosions occurred near the TV Tower in Kiev, Ukraine. Ukrainian emergency department said the explosion killed five people. The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs said that the broadcast of Ukrainian TV Channel 24 and 1+1 TV Channels will be affected.
lasted for half a year
Whether the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered a new stage
08 Since August, artillery shells have been falling near the Zaporo thermonuclear power plant in Ukraine, causing concerns among many parties about the risk of nuclear disasters. As early as March this year, the Russian army claimed that it had controlled the Zaporother Nuclear Power Plant , but the artillery fire has not stopped for several months, as if it is impossible to see the microcosm of the dawn of a ceasefire.
htmlOn February 24, since Russian President Putin announced a special military operation in Donbas , at the end of March, Russia claimed that the first phase of the military operation was basically completed and would focus on "liberation" the Donbas region in Ukraine. As the Russian army advances step by step, in July, Russia has completely controlled Lugansk in eastern Ukraine, and Ukraine admits to its loss.Unlike the Russian army that seeks to "steady and steady", the Ukrainian army has recently shifted its offensive focus to the southern front and has repeatedly announced that it is planning a large-scale counterattack.
Crimea military base and ammunition depot have been attacked, and Ukraine has not officially acknowledged its responsibility, but Zelensky shows that the war "starts from Crimea and will end in Crimea."
The British Ministry of Defense predicts that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will soon enter a "new stage", forming a front line of about 350 kilometers extending from near Zaporoze to Khlsong .
. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the five major variables may have an impact on the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
variable 1: Lingdong is coming to
climate, and is expected to become one of the key variables soon.
Recently, Ukraine has "released" many times, hoping to achieve at least one tactical victory before winter. Yermak, director of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, also pointed out that Ukraine must make substantial progress before winter, otherwise the Russian army will have more time to stabilize the battlefield situation and it will become more difficult for Ukrainian troops to counterattack.
After all, Moscow once defeated the army of Napoleon and Hitler with the cheers of "General Winter". Now, energy weapons are in hand, and they have "carried natural gas" many times to attract European countries.
Although Europe follows the United States' energy sanctions on Russia, at present, it is more of a "backlash" of sanctions. Energy bills in many countries soar, and people are worried about winter heating.
How much energy does the troubled European countries still have to support Ukraine?
Bloomberg said bluntly, "No matter what indicator (measurement) is used, Putin is winning the energy war."
variable 2: inflation test
The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict is also exacerbating the risk of global inflation, laying "hidden dangers" for future changes in the situation.
International grain prices and crude oil prices fell in August, but the gradual cooling of the commodity market was not quickly reflected in the cost of living for the people. Inflation rates in some countries are still setting new highs in decades.
Data released by the European Bureau of Statistics on August 18 showed that the inflation rate of euro zone 19 countries in July was 8.9%, setting a new record high.
At the same time, global food supply is facing uncertainty.Although Russia and Ukraine rarely reached a food transport agreement, and ships carrying hundreds of thousands of tons of Ukrainian agricultural products were shipped out from Black Sea , it is obviously not enough to solve the global "hunger".
UN Secretary-General Guterres stressed that at present, Russia's fertilizer and agricultural exports still face "blocks".
analysis pointed out that the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has hit the world economy that has not yet emerged from the impact of the new crown epidemic. In addition, relevant sanctions have pushed up prices in Europe and the United States. The pressure on residents' purchasing power of inflation is testing the support of countries for Ukraine.
On June 18, 2022, Ukrainian soldiers used the M777 howitzer provided by the United States to fire at the Russian military positions.
Variable 3: Western military aid
Under the heavy pressure, how much actual aid can the United States and the West provide to Ukraine?
Western media are not very sure of this, because the Western camp that was originally grouped together is now "dividing".
On the one hand, the United States is still taking the lead in "making fire", including providing about $10 billion in military support to Ukraine. Polish and Baltic countries also continue to advocate full support for Ukraine.
In comparison, many European countries have some "deficiency". France and Germany, in particular, seem more eager to reach a quick solution through negotiations.
The "Tracking of Ukraine" database under the Kiel World Economic Research Institute in Germany also shows that in recent months, aid to Ukraine has plummeted, and in July, no new bilateral military aid commitments were provided to Ukraine.
Koffman, director of the Russian research project at the US Naval Analysis Center, believes that European aid may have reached its limit, which will force Ukraine to "ammunition diet."
Data picture: A Russian soldier guards the Zaporo thermonuclear power plant area.
variable 4: nuclear disaster risk
From Chernobyl to Zaporo thermonuclear power plant, the shadow never dissipates. Recently, the attention around nuclear disaster has once again heated up, and leaders of Britain, France, Germany, the United States and other countries have urged all parties to maintain military restraint.
, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, has been under the control of Russia for a long time, and Ukrainian technicians are responsible for the operation. However, the two sides have been repeatedly raising the offense and defense of nuclear power plants, from real guns to "information warfare".
According to Ukraine's statistics, the Russian army has regularly shelled nuclear power plant areas, and due to Russian attacks, multiple radiation monitoring sensors around the spent fuel storage facilities of the nuclear power plant were damaged. Zelensky also specially added a "fire", saying that if a nuclear disaster occurs, the entire Europe will be affected.
The Russian army issued a statement claiming that the Ukrainian army used artillery and other to attack nuclear power plant areas many times, and questioned that Ukraine used it as a bargaining chip for seeking Western support. Because some diplomats have suggested that the nuclear attack is regarded by Western countries as one of the "red lines" of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, "unless it is crossed, there is no intention to take further action."
So, will a disaster happen more terrible than Chernobyl nuclear accident ?
At present, preventing the situation from escalating is still the primary choice for all parties to the conflict. UN Secretary-General Guterres went to Ukraine to mediate consultations. French President Macron also spoke with Putin on this, and the latter agreed with the French side's suggestion to send the International Atomic Energy Agency expert team to the nuclear power plant.
Data map: On March 29 local time, the delegations of Russia and Ukraine started a new round of face-to-face negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey. The picture shows Turkish President Erdogan's speech before the negotiations.
Variable 5: People's hearts are against
In the eyes of some foreign media, the biggest "variable" next may lie in the attitude of the people of Western countries.
Some people who originally supported Ukraine have now become "fatigue" with the conflict. Among them, a survey conducted in 10 European countries showed that 42% of respondents believed that the government paid too much attention to Ukraine compared to its own troubles.
accompanied by it, diplomats and observers have noticed that some Western countries have avoided specific measures against Ukraine because they are worried about getting "cold support from the people" and are even increasingly reluctant to openly oppose Russia.
However, cooling down on public opinion does not mean that the conflict ends.Analysts believe that given the very contradictory positions of all parties, there is still no solution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Moscow political analyst Karachev pointed out that since neither side seems to consider a ceasefire, "the war may last for several years." It remains to be seen how the game between great powers will bring about one and another. (End)
