[ Global Times special correspondent Cheng Shijie Global Times Reporter Hu Bobo] The latest report released by the State Bank of India (SBI) on the 3rd showed that according to the current economic growth rate, India will become the world's third largest economy in 2029. The report predicts that India's GDP (GDP) will surpass Germany in 2027 and is likely to surpass Japan in 2029, achieving its goal of entering the "top three in the world". Just last Friday, Bloomberg reported that according to GDP statistics released by International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Indian economy surpassed the UK in the last quarter of 2021 and continued to expand its leading position in the first quarter of this year. It has now become the fifth largest economy in the world after the United States, China, Japan and Germany. This news inspired Indian public opinion. For a time, entrepreneurs and politicians posted articles on social media to "sing" India's economic achievements. But some economists say that whether India's high economic growth can continue remains to be further observed.
rushes from fifth to third? Data from
IMF shows that after correction, India's nominal GDP in the first three months of 2022 was US$854.7 billion, while the UK's data for the same period was US$816 billion. In addition, the UK's GDP shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2022, which will further widen the gap between the two sides. Meanwhile, the pound exchange rate for pound fell 8% this year against the Indian rupee. The IMF predicts that India's GDP will continue to surpass the UK in 2022. If India can maintain its current momentum, its economic scale will exceed the UK by 2027.
The Economic Research Department of the State Bank of India believes that India has adopted a successful economic development strategy since 2014, and is likely to surpass Japan to become the world's third largest economy in 2029. Arvind Velmani, former chief economic adviser of the Indian government, also supported this analysis conclusion. He said that by 2030, India will become the third largest economy after the United States and China.
excited arguments
Many Indian entrepreneurs, politicians and media are delighted that India's GDP exceeds that of the UK. A large part of this is that Britain was once the suzerain of India. Anand Mahenda, chairman of India's Mahenda Automobile Group, said without hesitation on social media: "The cause and effect are unhappy! This news will make every Indian who is struggling to feel relieved."
Indian BJP official Twitter posted on the 3rd, saying, "The changes in the Modi government have made India achieve the goal of becoming a 5 trillion dollar economy. Beyond the UK to become the fifth largest economy in the world, India's economic growth is a glorious example!" Indian Finance Minister Sithalaman was excited by this statistics. She said that India is the fastest growing economy in the world, and its economic growth rate will remain in double digits, and the possibility of India falling into a recession is zero. The Finance Minister's Office also posted on social media at the first time, saying, "Ten years ago, India ranked only 11th among global economies, and now it has become the fifth largest economy after the United States, China, Japan and Germany." Indian Foreign Minister Su Jiesheng praised India for its "huge social transformation" and said, "India is ready to usher in a growth and recovery of 7% to 8%. Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry Official Subramaniam believes that in accordance with the vision formulated by Prime Minister Modi , India will become the world's second largest economy by 2047. He said, "It is hard to imagine how far our economy will develop in 2047, because it changes very quickly. India's total economy once accounted for 25% of the world's total economy. As India's economy grows, we will regain that position."
Can India do it?
However, Indian Congress leader Shahi Tharur believes that India should not be blinded by the "economic achievements" in front of it. He said, "The reason why I am cautiously optimistic about (statistical results) is that India is still a country with an extremely large population base. We need to benefit more people from the economic dividends brought by GDP growth." The Hindu newspaper said that the per capita GDP of India is still low, the manufacturing growth rate has slowed down, and there is also a large trade deficit.From these detailed data, we can still see the hidden concerns about India's economic development. Economists have also expressed concerns about whether the continued high growth will be achieved. Bibeck Debrouy, chairman of the Indian Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, said that although the growth rate of 7%-7.5% does not seem too high, historical data shows that maintaining such a growth rate for a long time is a difficult task. In the past 30 years, India has only once GDP has increased by more than 7% for five consecutive years.
Al Jazeera previously published a commentary article that the epidemic pressure in India has eased, agriculture and manufacturing performed well, and India's economy has grown rapidly, but there are still hidden worries behind this. The report believes that due to the long-term slowdown in India's economy, the statistical base is low, it is not surprising that the growth rate has risen sharply, and whether the subsequent growth rate can continue this trend remains to be seen.
US rating agency Moody's has also recently lowered its economic growth expectations. The company believes that India's GDP growth rate in 2022 will drop to 7.7% from 8.3% in 2021 and will further decline to 5.2% in 2023. Some economists believe that rising interest rates and slowing down in the global economy will have a negative impact on India's domestic economic activity.
