CCTV News reported on March 21 that Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the compromise clauses in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will be decided by the Ukrainian referendum, including Crimea and Donbas . My first feeling when I saw this news was that Zelensky should not be underestimated. His move was extremely sophisticated. But when you think about it again, the experienced actor behind the actor always makes the clown deeply unable to extricate himself. According to the latest poll data, 93% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine can win the Russian-Ukrainian war. 89% of the people opposed signing a peace agreement without the Russian army completely evacuating Ukraine. Although there are constant rumors that Zelensky has left Ukraine, it is undeniable that every time Zelensky's video speech propaganda still arouses the confidence of a large number of Ukrainian people. The referendum move seems to be Zelensky showing signs of bowing his head and surrendering, but in fact it is posing a problem for Russian President Putin.
▲Zelensky threw out a "referendum" to make a clever move
First of all, Zelensky cleared his political responsibility by throwing a referendum and ensuring his own political security. It is important to know that among the conditions proposed by Russia at present, Crimea and Donbas are involved in sovereignty and territorial integrity, and are the most sensitive. Any Ukrainian political leader who dares to sign such a traitorous treaty will inevitably be kicked out of power and nailed to the pillar of shame. Of course, Zelens basics dare not take this risk. If the referendum decides to accept these Russian conditions, it has nothing to do with Zelens basics.
Secondly, Zelensky threw the problem to Russia, because logically speaking, the method proposed by Zelensky has no reason to refute. After all, Russia has always claimed that it has the local people-oriented foundation for fighting Ukraine. However, if Russia agrees to the referendum, there are two risks. The first risk is that the result of the referendum is unfavorable to Russia. What should I do? Should we continue to fight or stop special military operations? If it is necessary to recover the will of the Ukrainian people, even if Zelensky stepped down and replaced him with a leader, he would still fight the Russians to the end, and the battle would be endless; the second risk is that if a referendum is to organize a referendum, there will be a ceasefire, but the current battlefield situation is beneficial to Russia. If the battle is stopped, a massive aid from NATO will flow in, and it will be difficult for Russia to fight again. But what if Russia does not agree to the referendum? This obviously does not conform to the war justice it claims, so the only answer Russia can now give to Zelensky's statement is to refuse to respond.
▲Putin must find a Ukrainian politician who can sign a treason
Speaking of this, the situation is actually very clear. Russia cannot occupy Ukraine for a long time, but Russia needs another Ukrainian politician who is recognized by the Ukrainian who is willing to sign a peace treaty with them. At present, although Zelensky meets the previous condition, he does not meet the second condition. This man is now making refusal to the end every day, and he is also proposing ridiculous conditions for 500 billion in war reparations at the negotiating table. He is obviously extremely stubborn and doesn't want to talk about it at all. So, Russia is really in a dilemma in Ukraine now.
Now some online military strategists have been discussing what the Russian army is about to capture Mariupol , then go north to join forces with the Russian army heading south from Kharkov , and encircle the main force of the Ukrainian army, and then force Zelensky to surrender or sign.There is actually a problem with this view. It is only a matter of time before Mariupol was conquered, but it is not realistic to encircle the main force of the Ukrainian army in the north and south: Sun Tzu's Art of War is well stated, and if it is ten, it will be attacked if it is twice. Even if these two Russian troops meet, the total number is only tens of thousands. The Ukrainian army has tens of thousands of people in eastern Wu. If it is still on the plain, isn't it purely funny? Moreover, once the mechanized troops of tens of thousands of people enter the hinterland of eastern Ukraine, the logistics line pressure will increase several times, and the maneuvering speed of troops lacking food and oil will slow down. It is difficult to catch up with the Ukrainian army, which is mainly light weapon and is very familiar with the local terrain and geography. It would be great if it could not be consumed by guerrilla warfare. Just look at the equipment thrown by the Russian army from the direction of Belarus.
▲Captation of Mariupol cannot bring victory
Therefore, even if the Russian army captures Mariupol, it cannot play any decisive role in the entire battlefield situation. The Ukrainian army will never surrender just because it lost a coastal city. The main force of the Ukrainian army cannot be surrounded. If neither side compromises, the Russian-Ukrainian war can only be Syrian 2ization, becoming a long-term heavy security and economic burden for Russia.
Some military fans also believe that the Russian army can use tactical nuclear weapon to quickly resolve the war. In fact, this is not the case. First of all, the decision to use tactical nuclear weapons on cities requires a huge political cost. In particular, most Ukrainian cities are Slavs , who are Russian brothers. Killing so many civilian compatriots is unacceptable in the hearts of Russian and lose the justice of the war. Secondly, cities that are bombed by tactical nuclear weapons will become nuclear-contaminated areas, and the Russian army cannot enter, and such cities cannot be taken down by the Russian army; thirdly, the Ukrainian army's attack on the Russian army is mainly concentrated on the logistics line, and it is a raid war mainly carried out by guerrillas. Such scattered tactical units will not have much effect in using tactical nuclear weapons.
So what will the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war? Can peace be achieved only when the Ukrainians are completely exhausted? The next year is destined to be a year of turbulent international storms.
