On May 10, South Korea, South Korean President Yoon Seo-yeol attended the inauguration ceremony. Photo/Visual China
Reporter of this magazine/Cao Ran
In the face of the danger of bomb threat, South Korea's new President Yoon Seo-yeol completed an inauguration ceremony that emphasized innovation, unity and freedom.
Facing more than 40,000 viewers, the conservative and progressive camp torn apart in the general election two months ago showed a rare reconciliation. Former Presidents Moon Jae-in and Park Geun-hye attended the ceremony together. Yoon Seo-hye bowed to Moon Jae-in's departure car and then officially moved into the office of the former Ministry of Defense building in Yongsan. South Korea Presidential Office Since then, I have bid farewell to the Blue House years of more than 70 years. In the evening, the heads of five major consortiums in South Korea were invited to attend the inauguration dinner of the new president for the first time, showing a new picture of political and business revitalizing the economy. On the same day, Yoon Seo-yeol also received blessings from US President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio ...
But on the other side, Yoon Seo-yeol's inauguration day was not calm. On May 10, the first diplomatic decision issued by the new South Korean government was to call on the UN Security Council to hold an emergency meeting to discuss North Korea's recent ballistic missile test. Earlier in the early morning, Yoon Seo-yeol chose to listen to a security briefing in the underground fortifications of the former Ministry of Defense to learn about North Korea's military trends and the deployment of South Korea's military.
"While North Korea's nuclear weapons plan poses a threat to us and Northeast Asia security, the door to dialogue will remain open." Unlike the positive reconciliation signal released by Moon Jae-in five years ago, Yoon Seo-hyun sent a promise similar to former US President Trump at the inauguration ceremony: "If North Korea really starts the process of denuclearization, we are ready to cooperate with the international community to propose a bold plan that will greatly strengthen North Korea's economy and improve the quality of life of its people." He also said that South Korea "must play a greater role in expanding freedom and human rights", implying that it will restart the "North Korea human rights" issue shelved by the former government.
At the same time, a diplomatic, security and unified affairs team that is completely different from the former government also started working on May 10.
The old friends team
Yin Xiyue's five-year presidential term begins with the underground bunker at the New Presidential Palace in Longshan. At around 0 a.m. on May 10, in the underground fortification of the former Ministry of Defense called the National Crisis Management Center, Yoon Seo-young listened to a security briefing from the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the South Korean Army on North Korea's military trends and the combat readiness of the South Korean army. Subsequently, 33 bells rang in Seoul's iconic ancient building, Puxin Pavilion, announcing that the new government began to perform its duties.
Listening to security briefings is the "first thing" for successive South Korean presidents to take office. But unlike Yoon Seok-young, former presidents Moon Jae-in and Park Geun-hye answered calls from senior military officials at home, and Lee Myung-bak and were also listening to briefings in the election office. As early as four days before taking office, when the underground fortifications of the new Presidential Palace had not been renovated, Yoon Seo-yeol held the first high-level meeting of the new team to "assess the security status of the peninsula" here as a preview of the new government's national security meeting.
The one sitting next to Yoon Seok-yeol in the basement is his elementary school classmate Kim Sung-han, followed by Yoon Seok-yeol’s senior Kwon Nye-seok when he was studying at the School of Law of Seok-yeol, Park Jin, the old senior of Yoon Seok-yeol and Kwon Nye-seok, Kim Sung-han’s old colleague Kim Tae-hyo, and Kim Tae-hyo’s old colleague Lee Jong-seok. South Korean media believe that it is these Yoon Seok-yeol's "old friends" that have created the attitude of the new president who has no foreign affairs experience to "attention special attention" to security affairs.
In 1980, sophomore Yoon Seo-yeon participated in a mock trial of the "Gwangju Incident" on campus, and insisted on sentenceing the then president to life imprisonment of Chun Doo-hwan, and was famous on campus. At that time, Kwon Nin-se-zheng was in his junior year. After that, the two prepared for the prosecutor exam together. Involved by the mock trial incident, Yoon Seo-yeol was able to join the Suwon Local Procuratorate for nine years and became a junior of Quan Ningshi. Since then, they have all held important positions in the Seoul Higher Procuratorate and the Ministry of Justice.
In 2002, Kwon Ng-se, who obtained a master's degree from Harvard Kennedy School of Government Management, returned home and was recruited by the National Party. He was elected as a member of Congress in Seoul and met Park Jin, a senior at the School of Law and Kennedy School of Law. Starting from 2002, both of them were re-elected for three consecutive terms in Seoul, and supported Park Geun-hye to take office in the 2004 leadership change of the Great National Party. Park Jin, who was a diplomat, immediately became the first chairman of the International Committee of the National Party during the Park Geun-hye administration.
At the same time, Kim Sung-han, who received a Ph.D. in political science from Hotel University at Austin, is teaching at the Institute of Diplomacy and National Security (IFANS) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Due to his close policy views, he and Kim Tae-hyo, who works at the institute, gradually became important advisers to the foreign policy of the Great National Party.
In 2007, after Lee Myung-bak became the presidential candidate of the National Party, Park Jin served as the chief adviser on diplomacy, unification and security affairs of his campaign team, and presided over the handover of relevant departments after Lee Myung-bak won the election. After two conservative governments, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, Park Jin served as chairman of the Congressional Foreign Affairs, Trade and Unification Affairs Committee, Kwon Ng-se was nominated by Park Geun-hye as ambassador to China, Kim Sung-han became deputy minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Kim Tae-hye was appointed as diplomatic strategy secretary of the Diplomatic Security Office of the President's Office.
The National Defense Strategy Secretary who worked in the security room with Kim Taehyo at the time was professional officer Lee Jong-seok who was the deputy director of the Policy Planning Department of the Ministry of National Defense. South Korean media revealed that in addition to his colleagues with Kim Tae Hyo, Lee Jong-seok also has a "very close" friend, Kim Yong-hyun, senior at the Army Non-commissioned Officer School. After Yoon Seok-yeol won the election, Kim Yong-hyun was nominated for the new president's chief of security.
Kuen Qizhi, president of the Korean-China Friendship Association, who has served in the Blue House for a long time, introduced to " China News Weekly " that among these people, Kim Sung-han and Kwon Ng-seok, who have the longest relationship with Yoon Seok-yeol, are the new president's real "core think tank" in diplomacy, security and unification affairs. In June 2021, after Yoon Seo-hyo, who had no political experience, announced that she could run for president, she first recruited Kim Sung-han and Kwon Nye-se to the core team. Kim Sung-han was called Yoon Seok-yeol's "diplomatic security tutor" by Korean public opinion, and was fully responsible for the handover of diplomatic, security and unified affairs of the new and old governments.
On April 10, Yoon Seo-yeol (Chinese) announced the nomination of the first batch of cabinet members of the new South Korean government in Seoul, South Korea. Photo/Pengpai Image
Kwon Ki-sik pointed out that Moon Jae-in's chief diplomatic adviser later served as the head of the National Security Office, but Yoon Seok-yeol reduced the high-level structure of the presidential office from the past "3 chief secretary and 8 chief secretary" to "2 chief secretary and 5 chief secretary" in the name of "reducing the presidential office and returning the government to the cabinet". As one of the "Two Directors", Kim Sung-han's status in the Presidential Palace has improved even more. Kim Sung-han's old colleague Kim Tae-hyo was appointed as the first deputy director of the National Security Office, which also broke the tradition of the first deputy director of the National Security Office in the Blue House era being a military official, and also demonstrated Kim Sung-han's "right to speak" in personnel.
Kuen Ningshi was appointed as the vice chairman of Yoon Seo-yeol's presidential handover committee because of his rich experience in Congress. He was once regarded by the outside world as a potential candidate for the secretary-general of the Presidential Office. On April 12 this year, Yoon Seo-young visited former President Park Geun-hye after winning the election. Kwon Ng-seok was the only person to accompany the transfer committee to attend. Eventually, he was nominated as a candidate for Unification Minister.
In addition, Park Jin first became the foreign policy adviser in Yoon Seo-hye's campaign team second only to Kim Sung-han, and was later nominated as Foreign Minister . Lee Jong-seok first served as the Foreign Security Committee member of the President's Handover Commission, and later became the nominee of the Minister of National Defense. The outside world predicts that the aforementioned five people and the unnominated president of the National Intelligence Agency will form the basic team of the Yoon Seo-yeo era South Korea's National Security Conference. Kim Sung-han's Gory University alumnus, former ambassador to the United States, Kim Sung-han's old colleague, former deputy foreign minister Kim Kyu-hyun, etc., are also considered to be likely to hold the remaining important positions in diplomatic, security and unification.
Background for studying in the United States
Such an "old friend team" is not the norm in Korean politics. When Moon Jae-in took office as president in 2017, the selected National Security Office Director Zheng Yiyong, Foreign Minister Kang Kyung and , and National Situation Dean Xu Xun were all professional civil servants, and most of them were experts in North Korea and South Korea affairs. Today, Yoon Seok-yeol's team is almost all politicians. Kim Sung-han, Kwon Nye-se, Park Jin, Kim Tae-hyo and Lee Jong-seok all came from conservative constituencies and were all "old" with the new president. There are no experts in North Korea affairs among them, but they all have backgrounds in studying in the United States.
Kuan Qizhi pointed out that Yoon Seok-yeol is the only person who has won the president without a congressional election since this century, and the current Congressional majority is a common Democratic Party in the progressive camp. Therefore, it is not surprising that he needs experienced assistants to strengthen communication with Congress. Nam Sung-wook, a professor at Goryeo University and former director of the South Korean National Security Strategy Institute, pointed out to China Newsweek that Yoon Seo-yeol believes that Moon Jae-in's diplomatic security team is too focused on "north-south relations" and ignores South Korea-China, South Korea-US, and South Korea-Japan affairs, so there are also directional adjustments in the candidates.
Among its team, except for Kwon Ng-seok who served as ambassador to China, Kim Tae-hyo, who graduated from Cornell University, is one of the few experts among the senior think tanks in Seoul who strongly advocates the "constructive relationship" of South Korea and Japan. After Yoon Seok-hyo made a remark that “ Japanese Self-Defense Force can enter the Korean Peninsula in an emergency”, South Korean media found that as early as 2012, Kim Tae-hyo was severely criticized by the government and the opposition for publishing papers on relevant positions.
However, although it is emphasized that "new balance" is maintained among relevant countries in Northeast Asia, Yoon Seo-yeol attaches the most importance to improving the relationship between South Korea and the United States. A member of Yoon Seok-young's handover revealed to the media that the reason why Lee Jong-seok was reused was that "there was a good relationship with the US." Lee Jong-seok received his PhD in Political Science from , Tennessee State University, for his paper on the topic of "Korea-US Alliance". During Park Geun-hye's administration, Lee Jong-seok was promoted to lieutenant general and was once responsible for the reform of the command of the South Korean and US coalition forces.
In addition, Yoon Seok-hye nominated Prime Minister Han De-soo has also served as ambassador to the United States, and Kim In-chul, the deputy prime minister and minister of education, has served as the president of the Fulbright Korea Alumni Association for a long time. Kwon Ki-sik pointed out that in addition to the importance of South Korea-US relations itself, the personal tendency of the South Korean president will largely affect the direction of diplomacy, security and unified policies for a period. Moon Jae-in has always had the "Crystal Ball Dream" of "returning to the North", while Yoon Seok-yeol has the "White House Complex". When planning the new presidential palace, he did not hide his "pro-American" ruling style and required that the office and surrounding railings should also learn White House .
Some analysts believe that Yoon Seo-yeon has no political experience and no political team, which is also the reason why he hastily appointed such a "inclined" team. A person from the Handover Committee revealed to the media that important candidates such as the Minister of Justice may even be "temporary replacement".
Yoon Seok-yeon's foreign policy team member Kim Hongjun told China Newsweek that the new president's diplomatic security handover team began to operate at the end of March. The foreign policy of the current government must be reviewed one by one to put forward the new government's vision, policies and action plans, including new policies for specific countries and regions. The time of this process was quite tight, and Jin Shenghan himself often worked until the early morning of the next day.
However, the politicized and private team has made South Korean government and opposition question the sincerity of the new government's "co-governance". The 18 nominees for the cabinet ministers have been announced, including Yoon Seo-yeol and Kwon Ng-seok’s old prosecutor’s colleagues, Minister of Justice Han Dong-hoon, Yoon Seo-yeol’s high school and college junior and nominee for the Minister of Interior and Security Lee Sang-min. Meanwhile, Yoon Seok-hyuk promised to "nominate several young ministers in their 30s" during his campaign, but the youngest candidate is 49 years old, and the rest are almost all Yoon Seok-hyuk's contemporaries. In addition, even the candidates for ministers recommended by different factions in the conservative camp were not considered by Yoon Seok-yeol.There are members of the common Democratic Party, so they questioned: "Is it appointing all friends as ministers to be president?"
In response, Yoon Seok-yeol explained that he "does not look at his background, but only values professional ability." Zhang Ji-won, the head of the president, defended his age issue: "It takes time to be proficient in national unity, diplomacy, economy, and trade issues? Age is a symbol of experience." Regarding the "American background", Yoon Seok-yeol emphasized that "speaking fluent English and having international work experience" can lead government governance to modernization and internationalization.
At the inauguration ceremony on May 10, Yoon Seo-yeol walked onto the rostrum and received the bouquets from the "Gwangju Girl" representing the progressive camp and the " Daegu Boy" representing the conservative camp. This specially designed link echoed his subsequent speech calling for "unity between the government and the country". But Kwon Ki-sik believes that Yoon Seo-yeol nominated senior government candidate has damaged the expectations of the Democratic Party of Congress for his cooperation. As of May 9, only five nominees in its new administration team passed the Congress vote, and two other nominees announced their resignation due to attacks from the progressive camp. Whether Yoon Seok-yeol's diplomacy, security and unification team can be in place as expected remains to be seen.
Policy to North Korea
"I believe everyone has realized that the current situation on the peninsula has deteriorated." On May 2, South Korean Foreign Minister nominee Park Jin, who just returned from a visit to the United States, said in a congressional question. When the Democratic Party MP asked him if he said that "Moon Jae-in's government created conditions for North Korea's provocation", the foreign minister-in-chief replied: "The North Korean policy that relies on North Korea's goodwill is difficult to succeed."
Privately, Yoon Seok-yeo's camp even called the policy toward North Korea's past five years "submission diplomacy", believing that Moon Jae-in cannot attract North Korea to return to the denuclearized negotiating table. Since the North Korean and US leadership meeting in Hanoi, Vietnam broke down in February 2019, the North Korean and US sides have been in a deadlock on whether to lift some sanctions first" or "promote denuclearization first". In order to maintain the situation on the peninsula and promote the recovery of dialogue, the Moon Jae-in government has always refused to deploy more anti-missile systems in South Korea, , refused to touch on the "North Korea's human rights issue", and has repeatedly sought to reduce joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States and break through sanctions restrictions on economic cooperation between the north and the south.
US North Korean expert Mark Barry pointed out to China Newsweek that the embarrassing position of the South Korean government on the North Korean issue is due to its inability to break through US restrictions and must seek a strategy to coordinate with Washington. While emphasizing that "no conditions are set for opening contact" with North Korea, the Biden administration has always adhered to the position of "denuclearization first and then lifting sanctions". Goldberg, the new US ambassador to South Korea, recently emphasized that "a tough stance must be maintained for denuclearization", which has led to the "first step" problem that has never been solved.
Against this background, the Yoon Seo-yue administration tried to establish a new "principled" framework based on the Biden administration's policy toward North Korea, namely "a comprehensive sanctions and pressure, dialogue and persuasion methods to guide North Korea towards the path of denuclearization." On a practical level, Yoon Seo-yeo government proposed not to seek changes to international sanctions before progress is made in denuclearization, nor to consider negotiating the Declaration of End of War.
Bari believes that compared with the active temptation of the Moon Jae-in government, Yoon Seo-yeo government's policy toward North Korea is essentially to retreat, trying to guide or force North Korea to take the "first step". However, this does not mean a retreat to the point where Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye were hostile to North Korea, nervous and even military conflicts occurred during their reign. The most important evidence is that the new president nominates Quan Ningshi as the Minister of Unification.
When Yoon Seok-yeol won the election, some conservative people were looking forward to the new government's re-arrangement of the unified ministry. After the 2007 general election, the Lee Myung-bak handover committee listed the abolition of the Ministry of Unification as one of the policy plans. Although the final result was "refrigeration", it also made the Ministry of Unification inaction for two consecutive governments since then, and was regarded as a "accumulative problem" by the Moon Jae-in government, who took office in 2017. After the resumption of the North and South Korea meeting in 2018, the Blue House and the National Intelligence Agency 3 took over the Ministry of Unification to lead the dialogue process.South Korean media reported that before and after this election, the economic and trade departments within the government also hope to "take away" institutions such as the North Korea-South Korea Cooperation Fund from the Ministry of Unification.
But in Yoon Seok-yeol's view, the Ministry of Unification not only cannot be reorganized, but also needs to add more important tasks. Unlike Park Jin's statement on Moon Jae-in's policy toward North Korea, Kwon Ng-se emphasized in his congressional questioning that his mission is to "coordinate the consensus policy toward North Korea" to increase the sustainability of unified affairs. South Korean media analyzed that this is in line with Yoon Seo-yeol's recent statements about the Constitution. When visiting Incheon , he emphasized that "peaceful reunification is the presidential obligation stipulated in South Korean Constitution , and is the goal and value of the country." This reflects that "as a constitutional expert, he himself adheres to the path of peaceful reunification."
Therefore, although the Moon Jae-in government is criticized in terms of rhetoric, at the practical level, the new government has left a window for a consensus policy toward North Korea. Unlike the North Korea-South Korea cooperation agreement reached after the Lee Myung-bak government came to power, the defense minister nominator Lee Jong-seok has publicly confirmed that the military cooperation agreement to build a buffer zone reached by North Korea and South Korea during the Moon Jae-in era will be retained after review and "no abolition is advocated."
Lee Jong-seok also confirmed that the new government will choose to inherit at least two North Korean policies from the outgoing Moon Jae-in government: to work hard to ease tensions with North Korea and cooperate to restore the remains of South Korean and American soldiers who died during the Korean War. In addition, the transfer committee, which participated in various factions in the conservative camp, did not mention "re-deployment of THAAD " in the 110 policy plans released in the final release, which also showed that Yoon Seo-yue's team had made some coordination within the camp on a consensus policy toward North Korea.
Professor at Goryeo University and former director of the South Korean Institute of National Security Strategy Nam Sung-wook told China Newsweek that based on various factors, Yoon Seo-yeol's policy toward North Korea is likely to depend on North Korea's next response to the fine-tuning of South Korea's new government policy. "He expressed his position: denuclearization is an urgent task. Once North Korea's denuclearization makes progress, he will seek economic cooperation. Without denuclearization, it is actually difficult to carry out economic cooperation under UN sanctions against North Korea."
Some analysts pointed out that the direction of two specific issues is worth noting whether the new government's policy toward North Korea can maintain the current overall stability of the peninsula. First of all, Lee Jong-seok has made it clear that the suspension of large-scale joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States during the Moon Jae-in period was "a thing that needs improvement." Secondly, the Moon Jae-in government has not joined the co-sponsors of the United Nations Human Rights Resolution since 2019, but the new government plans to participate in the North Korean human rights resolution as a co-sponsor when it comes to power and build the "North Korea Human Rights Foundation" that was actually shelved by the Moon Jae-in government. It is still unknown whether the Congress led by the Common Democratic Party can alleviate the impact of the new policy on North Korea-South relations.
