[Global Market Quotes]
The United States released September CPI data, and core CPI unexpectedly hit the fastest year-on-year growth rate in 40 years. The market fully priced interest rate hikes in November 75 basis points, and even a 100 basis point expectation was reappeared.
[Macro News]
US core inflation hit a 40-year high in September. The probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points rose to 99.2%
US CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year, higher than the market's expectations of 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.3%; September CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, twice the market's expectations of 0.2%, and significantly higher than the previous value of 0.1%. After excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 6.6% year-on-year in September, not only higher than the market expectations of 6.5% and the previous value of 6.3%, but also hit a new high since August 1982; the core CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month, higher than the market expectations of 0.4%.
According to CME " Fed Observation": the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points to the range of 3.50%-3.75% in November is 0.8%, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 99.2%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 0%; the probability of raising interest rates by December is 1.0%, the probability of raising interest rates by 125 basis points is 27.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 150 basis points is 71.5%.
Biden :CPI report shows progress in fighting inflation
Biden issued a statement saying that today's CPI report shows that we have made some progress in fighting inflation, although there is more work to be done. Fighting against inflation remains the top priority.
ECB Management Committee Kazaks: 75 basis points should be raised in October
ECB Management Committee Kazaks said that the ECB should raise interest rates by 75 basis points in October, and then another big rate hike in December. The European Central Bank's rate hikes should slow down, but may be supplemented by other measures, such as reduction of the balance sheet .
Media said British officials are trying to reverse Prime Minister Tras' tax cut plan, pound pound and British debt soared
Later on Wednesday, the Bank of England purchased 4.56 billion pounds of bonds, the largest round of emergency purchases so far. The British Chancellor said that if the Bank of England's debt purchase plan ends on Friday, the hard-hit pension funds cannot close their positions and raise cash before the weekend, causing turmoil in the UK market next week, the British government is preparing to blame the Bank of England Governor Bailey. At present, the Bank of England is not giving in to the deadline for bond purchases. If pension funds collapse completely, it may intensify market volatility, the pressure on the British government to adjust its tax expenditure plan will also increase.
Saudi said the United States demanded that oil production cuts be postponed until after the midterm elections White House said that production cuts are by no means economic considerations
Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a rare long statement, defending OPEC+ production cuts "pure" is based on economic considerations, and hinting that the United States recommends that production cuts be postponed until after the midterm elections. The White House publicly refuted that the production cuts are by no means supported by all member states and have nothing to do with market fundamentals. International oil prices stopped falling for three consecutive days, rebounding from a weekly low of more than 2%.
IEA monthly report: lower global oil demand growth expectations in 2022 to 1.9 million barrels/d
IEA monthly report: OPEC + production cuts may lead to soaring oil prices and global economy recession. Global crude oil demand is expected to decrease by 340,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2022. Lower global oil demand growth expectations in 2022 to 1.9 million barrels per day. The global oil supply forecast for 2022 is cut by 200,000 barrels per day to 99.9 million barrels per day. The 2022 oil demand forecast was cut by 10,000 barrels per day to 99.6 million barrels per day. Global oil demand growth is expected to be 1.7 million barrels per day in 2023.
IEA: OPEC+ production cuts may push the global economy into recession
0 The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that the economy continues to deteriorate, coupled with the rise in oil prices caused by OPEC+ production cuts, is slowing global oil demand. With the impact of continued inflationary pressure and interest rate hikes, rising oil prices may become a turning point for the global economy, which is already on the brink of recession. This terrible warning from the IEA underlines its division with Saudi Arabia. The IEA said the actual production cut could be around 1 million barrels per day, rather than the 2 million barrels per day announced by OPEC+.Capacity restrictions in other OPEC members mean that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will bear most of the production cuts, and new sanctions on Russia by G7 and EU may further tighten global supply.
Gazette: Repair of "North Stream" will last for more than one year
Gazette Corporation President Miller said on the 13th local time that in order to repair the damaged pipeline of "North Stream", most of the pipelines may need to be replaced, and the repair work will last for more than one year.
Secretary-General of OPEC will visit Algiers from October 15 to 17 to discuss global oil issues
OPEC official statement: Secretary-General of OPEC will visit Algiers from October 15 to 17 to discuss global oil issues and medium- and long-term prospects.
The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached a six-week high
The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States to October 8 recorded 228,000, the highest since the week of September 1, 2022. Part of this is due to the surge in unemployment claims in Florida after Hurricane Ian. Hurricane Ian destroyed homes and businesses in the area, which is probably one of the biggest losses in U.S. history.
30 more than 130 yuan to lower the first home provident fund loan interest rate
According to Securities Times , recently, the housing provident fund policy in various places has been continuously optimized. At the same time, after the Central Bank of China decided to lower the interest rate for the first personal housing provident fund loan on September 30, many places have issued documents to implement the policy starting from October 1. According to incomplete statistics, more than 30 other places have begun to implement new loan interest rates, namely, the interest rates of the first personal housing provident fund loan for less than 5 years (including 5 years) and above 5 years have been lowered to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively, and the interest rates of the second personal housing provident fund loan remain unchanged. Galaxy Securities research report believes that the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans has been lowered for the first time since 2015 and has been at a historical low. Combined with the opening of the downward space for mortgage interest rates, the loose cycle of real estate credit has begun.
[Industry News]
National Energy Administration : From January to September, the whole society's electricity consumption increased by 4.0% year-on-year
Data released by the National Energy Administration showed that from January to September, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 6493.1 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. By industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry is 85.7 billion kWh, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry is 423.64 billion kWh, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry is 113.79 billion kWh, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents is 103.31 billion kWh, an increase of 13.5% year-on-year.
Russia said the agreement on Russia's grain and fertilizer exports has not been implemented at all
According to CCTV News, Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov said on the 13th local time that the food agreement on lifting restrictions on exports to Russia has not been implemented at all, and Russia's fertilizer exports are still hindered.
Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange : The trading margin standard for thermal coal futures 2310 contract is 50%
After research and decision, the relevant matters of thermal coal futures 2310 contract are now announced as follows, the trading margin standard is 50%, and the increase and fall limit is 10%. If the trading margin standards and limit limit ranges implemented in accordance with the rules are higher than the above standards, they will still be implemented in accordance with the original regulations. The maximum number of positions opened by non-futures company members or customers in a single day is 20 lots.
China Iron and Steel Association: In early October, the social inventory of steel materials was monitored for
In early October, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel materials in 21 cities was 9.03 million tons, an increase of 510,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 6.0%. Inventories rose for the first time after 100% of the year; an increase of 1.15 million tons from the beginning of the year, an increase of 14.6%; a decrease of 2.09 million tons from the same period last year, a decrease of 18.8%.
China Steel Association: In early October, key statistics on steel production of steel enterprises decreased by 9.19% month-on-month on the same period of 2.2
China Steel Association: In early October 2022, key statistics on steel enterprises produced a total of 21.0775 million tons of crude steel, 19.116 million tons of pig iron, and 20.1712 million tons of steel.Among them, the daily output of crude steel was 2.1077 million tons, a decrease of 1.11% month-on-month; the daily output of pig iron was 1.9116 million tons, a decrease of 2.16% month-on-month; the daily output of steel was 2.0171 million tons, a decrease of 9.19% month-on-month (affected by factors such as the principle of Ansteel Group's ERP and the centralized storage of some enterprises at the end of the month, the steel output in this tenth was a significant decrease compared with the previous tenth; excluding relevant influencing factors, the daily output of steel was 4.3% lower than the previous tenth).
India's September palm oil imports were 1171913 tons higher than 994997 tons in August
Market news: India's September palm oil imports were 1171913 tons, higher than 994997 tons in August. India's soybean oil imports in September were 261,815 tons, up from 244,697 tons in August. India's sunflower oil imports in September were 159,810 tons, up from 135,308 tons in August.
Singapore fuel oil inventories fell 2.698 million barrels to a four-week low of 20.201 million barrels
Singapore Enterprise Development Authority (ESG): In the week ended October 12, Singapore fuel oil inventories fell 2.698 million barrels to a four-week low of 20.201 million barrels. Singapore's medium distillate stockpile rose by 309,000 barrels to a three-week high of 8.139,000 barrels. Singapore's light distillate stocks rose by 375,000 barrels to a seven-week high of 16.577 million barrels.
Citi : In the case of a large amount of aluminum surplus, the ban on LME can limit the decline of aluminum
Citi: The recent rebound in aluminum prices may fade, because in the current market environment, the ban on LME will not affect the supply and demand balance. In the case of a large excess of aluminum, the LME ban can limit the decline of aluminum. It is expected that the silver price will fall to $17-18/ounce in the next six months, and then rise to $22/ounce.
Private exporters report export sales of 264,000 tons of soybeans to China
US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data, private exporters report export sales of 264,000 tons of soybeans to China, export and sell 242,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, and deliver the goods in the 2022/23 market year. The market year for US soybeans begins on September 1.
[Today's follow]
9:30 China's September CPI annual rate
10:00 China's September trade account (billion yuan)
20:30 USDA releases weekly export sales report
20:30 US September retail sales monthly rate
