QUESTION
Direct News: We see that the Kuomintang primary election polling assignment has entered the 5th day and will be over the day after tomorrow. What kind of observations do you have about the final election results?
ANSWER
Special Commentator Liu Heping: In fact, I have always believed that among the several candidates of the Kuomintang, Han Kuo-yu has the greatest chance of winning. So, judging from the various signs currently revealed, Han Kuo-yu's victory is already determined.
First of all, the polls conducted by many institutions on the island recently showed that Han Kuo-yu will not only defeat , Guo Taiming, , but also the leading range is widening.
Secondly, Han Kuo Yu's primary election opponent Terry Gou's recent actions are becoming more and more intense and more emotional. This can also be seen from another perspective that Guo Taiming's choice is already in a bad situation.
There is also a saying that the duck prophet is warm in spring. Wang Jinping, who is proficient in human relationships and is good at observing political trends, has stopped dating Guo Taiming these days, but has had a passionate fight with Han Kuo-yu and respected each other as guests.
QUESTION
Direct News: Guo Taiming said that his polls have suddenly declined recently because the DPP and green camp supporters are manipulating the Kuomintang’s primary election and entrusting votes to Han Kuo-yu. What do you think about this?
ANSWER
Special commentator Liu Heping: 's allegation is somewhat "false" and does not make logical sense.
First of all, there is no motivation to entrust Han Kuo-yu to get votes. For the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen, Han Kuo-yu is not only difficult to fight, but also is the most difficult opponent. I believe that they have experienced Han Kuo-yu's excellence from the "nine-in-one" election at the end of last year and several recent campaign events.
Secondly, from a common sense, the purpose of the green camp's ticket entries is definitely to influence the results of the Kuomintang's primary election. Most polls in recent years have shown that Han Kuo-yu is ahead of Terry Gou, but the only difference is that the lead is different. In this case, the Green Camp can only change the results of the Kuomintang’s primary election by quoting to Terry Gou. In this case, the Green Camp will not only not change the results of the primary election, but will further encourage Han Kuo-yu to lead.
In addition, from a realistic perspective, almost all polls show that Han Kuo-yu's supporters are almost all pan-blue people, while Terry Gou's supporters overlap with Ko Wen-je and Tsai Ing-wen, with most middle voters and pan-green voters. These seem to show that the Green Camp is more likely to send votes to Terry Gou.
It is worth noting that since Terry Gou’s accusations do not conform to common sense and logic, why should he say so? If you just look for a step forward for your defeat and find some face, it is human nature and understandable. If you are looking for excuses for the next election of the party, the problem will be more complicated.
QUESTION
Direct News: That is to say, Terry Gou angrily criticized the Kuomintang Central Committee, and cried and persuaded Han Kuo-yu to withdraw from the election, and promised that he would hand over the baton to Han Kuo-yu after four years of work. What do you think?
ANSWER
Special commentator Liu Heping: I think that Guo Taiming handed over the baton to Han Kuo-yu four years later. Not many people will believe this statement, and Han Kuo-yu will not believe it even more. Because the Kuomintang is already a modern political party, whether it is the alternation of power or the acquisition of relevant qualifications, it must be elected. Besides, even if Han Kuo-yu gave it to Terry Gou, it doesn’t mean that Terry Gou will definitely be able to defeat Tsai Ing-wen. Even if he defeated Tsai Ing-wen and tasted the taste of power, whether Guo Taiming would give up his qualification for re-election and hand over the baton to Han Kuo-yu is a big question mark.
However, Terry Gou’s recent performance has reflected that he has both anger and resentment in his heart. The anger was mainly aimed at the Kuomintang. He believed that since I, Terry Gou, had borrowed money to the Kuomintang and saved the Kuomintang organization, the organization should help me settle Han Kuo-yu, press Han Kuo-yu as the mayor of Kaohsiung , and then let me, Terry Gou, representing the Kuomintang, choose.Only in this way can we achieve what Terry Gou said to be win-win. Guo Taiming's resentment came for Han Kuo-yu. I promised to increase investment in Kaohsiung and I am very interested in you Han Kuo-yu. Why can't you Han Kuo-yu give in to me in the primary election?
Of course, Guo Taiming cried and persuaded Han Guo to withdraw from the election, mainly not for Han Guoyu, but for Han fans, who were making the final call and playing the tragic card to Han fans, hoping that Han fans could abandon Han and join Guo.
However, from Terry Gou’s recent scolding and crying, we can see that Terry Gou is indeed very serious about this election. But if you are afraid of things in the world, you will be too persistent and you will be able to take it and can't let it go. This is also the reason why the outside world is worried that Terry Gou will leave the party and run for election after the primary election failed.
QUESTION
Direct News: Guo Taiming also criticized the Kuomintang Central Standing Committee member Yao Jianglin yesterday, saying, "If I had not borrowed money, you could still be the Central Standing Committee member with peace of mind." At the same time, he also pointed the artillery fire at the island entrepreneurs led by Tsai Yanming and , saying that once Han Kuo-yu is elected, he will let Tsai Yanming be the chairman of the Kuomintang. What do you think about this?
ANSWER
Special Commentator Liu Heping: In fact, since the Kuomintang carried out the major reforms, the party chairman has been elected by one party member and not assigned by one person, so this accusation by Terry Gou is not valid. However, it is understandable that Terry Gou has complaints about Want Want Group and Tsai Yanming, the actual controller of the China Times. Because since Terry Gou announced his participation in the Kuomintang's primary election, the China Times has fought with him. This also made Terry Gou's primary election deteriorate to some extent into a game between the two major capitals of Hon Hai Group and Want Want Group, and split the entrepreneurs on the island into two major camps of the support and the anti-Guo faction. This should be something Guo Taiming didn't expect.
As for the relationship between Terry Gou and the Kuomintang, it has become distorted because of this primary election. Terry Gou indeed borrowed money to the Kuomintang when the Kuomintang was in the most difficult time, and thus gave it kindness to the Kuomintang. I think it is precisely because of this reason that the Kuomintang has been grateful and made an exception to help Terry Gou solve the issue of qualifications for election. It is also the reason why Ma Ying-jeou, Wu Dun-yi and Samaritan Long Bin support Guo to run for election. However, Terry Gou kept making this matter come out and bask in the sun. This practice damaged the Kuomintang and also hurt Terry Gou's own image. I think, in the final analysis, behind this is actually the trouble of not distinguishing between human relationships and public and private affairs.
Why did Terry Gou’s choice and his relationship with the Kuomintang come to this point today? I think personality determines destiny and has a lot to do with Terry Gou’s personal self-righteous personality. Terry Gou's domineering and overly emotional character will make some voters feel too depressed, and on the other hand, it will make some voters feel unreasonable and insecure.
QUESTION
Direct news: Regarding the media asking if they would leave the party and run for election, Terry Gou said that he would make a decision until next Monday's primary election results come out. How do you understand this?
ANSWER
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I personally prefer to believe that this should be a method of voting urged by Terry Gou, which means that he should use this statement to imply that voters on the island, if you do not vote for me, then I will have the possibility of leaving the party and running for election, and the Kuomintang will have the possibility of division. Therefore, whether to vote for me is up to you.
However, I think that Mr. Guo’s statement is a confusion. Not only will it not have the effect of urging votes, but it will arouse more voters’ disgust and thus not vote for him. Because for pan-blue voters, especially deep blue voters, they will believe that Terry Gou is disloyal to the Kuomintang and has no sense of the overall situation; for some middle-aged voters, they will think that Director Guo is threatening himself.
As for whether Terry Gou will leave the party and run for election in the end, I personally believe that Terry Gou, who was born in a businessman, should not make judgments based on right and wrong and value, nor will he make judgments based on the needs of the Kuomintang. Moreover, the weak Kuomintang Central Committee can no longer control the strong Terry Gou, and he will only make judgments based on the gains and losses. If the final poll results show that Han Kuo-yu beat Terry Gou, then Terry Gou, who has no hope of winning the election, may retreat. On the contrary, if the polls between the two sides are not big and Terry Gou is just a small loss, then he is very likely to have another bet.
QUESTION
Direct News: There are media reports on the island that Terry Gou has been in contact with his son Guo Shouzheng , and may join forces to run for the election. Terry Gou himself also said that he will start to reorganize the third force after the primary election. What do you think about this?
ANSWER
Special Commentator Liu Heping: is still the same sentence. What determines whether Guo Taiming will run for election after leaving the party is not moral pressure, but a trade-off between gains and losses. As long as he has the opportunity to win 2020, it is not ruled out that Terry Gou will have the idea of cooperating with Ko Wen-je to run for the election. However, the biggest obstacle facing Guo Taiming and Ko Wen-je to cooperate in the future is also the issue of distribution of power and interests, that is, who will be the boss and who will be the second, and who will be the matchmaker. With Mr. Guo’s domineering personality, he is absolutely impossible to be the second child.
In addition, Terry Gou and Ko Wen-je cooperated to run for election, and he also faced another problem, that is, Ko Wen-je’s own wishes. Although Ke Wenzhe claims to be a representative of white forces, that is, the middle forces, as we all know, his real political stance is green, and he agrees with and supports the DPP. Under such circumstances, Ko Wen-je and Terry Gou may have an impact on the election situation between the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen. This is something that Ko Wen-je has to worry about.
Source: Shenzhen Radio and Television Direct News, Author: Liu Heping
