Pre-market market trends
1. On October 13 (Thursday) U.S. stock Before the market, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose together. As of press time, Dow futures rose 1.02%, S&P 500 index futures rose 0.98%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.72%.
2. As of press time, Germany DAX index rose 1.48%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.47%, France CAC40 index rose 0.87%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.80%.
3. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 0.32% to US$87.55 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose 0.32% to $92.75 per barrel.
Market News
β market continues! The CPI expectation difference tonight will still dominate the US stock and bond market. The correlation between the S&P 500 index and the widely-watched Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index has jumped to its most negative correlation since 2015. Better-than-expected economic data has intensified expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement a destructive rate hike in , which will cause the stock market to fall to a bear market low. Similarly, U.S. Treasury bonds are still affected by macro data such as employment and manufacturing, and the negative correlation between this asset class and the above-mentioned Citigroup Index is also expanding. The Citigroup Economic Accident Index is an indicator to observe and quantify the current economic status. When it is a positive number, it means that the actual economic situation is better than people's general expectations, and a negative value indicates that it is less than expected. With economic data dominating the US stock market, the CPI data to be released on Thursday is of great importance. If the data is too hot, it is very likely to put the Fed's fourth rate hike by 75 basis points, causing stock markets to fall into chaos again.
Shell (SHEL.US) clarifies false rumors, saying that Norwegian natural gas supply is normal. Earlier on Thursday, the Norwegian Nyhamna processing plant was rumored to have a supply threat, but Shell then clarified that the natural gas supply was normal. Earlier reports pointed out that Norwegian police were summoned to the Ormen Lange gas facility to investigate possible threats, but said no abnormalities were found. European authorities are particularly nervous about news about natural gas supply due to the recent explosion in Russia's Nord Stream pipeline. A spokesman said that earlier, Shell Norwegian received a notice from the police that the situation was unknown near the Nyhamna plant." "As a preventive measure, personnel from the natural gas plant were evacuated and Shell's emergency response organization has also been mobilized."
Saudi said OPEC + oil production cuts were purely out of "economic considerations", and the IEA accused it of causing global economy to fall into recession. Saudi Arabia issued a statement on Thursday, refusing to accept criticism that its oil production cuts "is not based on facts", saying that the reduction in oil production is in the interests of consumers and oil-producing countries, and said that OPEC+'s decision was adopted through consensus and considered To balance supply and demand, it aims to curb market volatility. Earlier, OPEC+ said last week that it would cut its daily oil production target by 2 million barrels. In response, International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that OPEC+'s decision to cut oil production could push oil prices to levels that led to the global economy in recession. Large cuts in OPEC and oil supply increased global energy security risks, and the resulting price level rise in market volatility. Oil prices may be a turning point for the global economy, which is already on the brink of recession.
Moody's chief economist: U.S. inflation will halve to 4% in six months. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi told media on Wednesday that U.S. inflation will be halved within six months. "The U.S. CPI will be reduced from more than 8% now to nearly 4%. "He pointed out that the premise that oil prices remain at current levels, supply chain problems continue to ease and car prices begin to decline. "The real difficulty is returning to the Fed's target from 4%. As far as CPI is concerned, the upper end of this target may be 2.5%. Therefore, the last 1.5 percentage points decline will take some time because it involves inflation in the service industry and, in turn, wages and labor markets. "Overall, Zandi believes the Fed's austerity policy is putting the economy on track. He predicts high prices should fall back to a level that is enough to prevent the economy from falling into recession.
New Eagle King Kashkali: The threshold for the Fed's policy shift is very high, and it is far from this level now. Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkali said on Wednesday that the threshold for the Federal Reserve to transform monetary policy is very high due to the continued strong potential inflation. He said that the Fed will reverse the ongoing interest rate hikes if the economy declines sharply or the Fed believes inflation will fall very quickly. Kashkali believes: "For me, the threshold for this change is very high because we haven't seen much evidence that potential inflation such as service inflation, wage inflation, and labor market are slowing down." Regarding the policy turn, Kashkali said: "I think we still have a long way to go from this step. I think it's more likely that we will raise interest rates to a certain level of more than 4%, maybe 4.5%. Then pause for a while and wait for austerity to play a role in the economy."
stocks news
Delta (DAL.US) Q3 revenue increased by 11% from the same period in 2019, and capacity is expected to recover by up to 92%. Delta Air Lines' Q3 revenue was US$13.975 billion, an increase of 11% over the same period in 2019, with market expectations of US$12.892 billion; net profit was US$695 million, compared with US$1.495 billion in the same period in 2019, with market expectations of US$1.043 billion; diluted earnings per share was US$1.08, compared with US$2.31 in the same period in 2019, with market expectations of US$1.62. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Delta expects total revenue to increase by 5-9% from the same period in 2019, operating margin to 9-11%, earnings per share of $1.00-1.25, and adjusted net debt to approximately $22.5 billion. Capacity is expected to return to 91% to 92% of 2019 levels in the fourth quarter, and non-fuel unit cost is expected to rise 12% to 13%, up 10 percentage points from the previous quarter.
BLK.US)Q3 asset management scale fell by 16% year-on-year, and net profit fell by 16%. BlackRock's total revenue in Q3 was US$4.311 billion, a year-on-year decline of 15%, and the market generally expected to be US$4.228 billion; Q3 net profit was US$1.406 billion, a year-on-year decline of 16%. BlackRock's diluted earnings per share was $9.25, compared with $10.89 in the same period last year, with a general market expectation of $7.07. Q3 operating profit was US$1.526 billion, down 21% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 35.4% compared with 38.3% in the same period last year.
TSMC (TSM.US) Q3 gross profit margin exceeded 60%, and net profit soared by nearly 80% year-on-year. TSMC's net revenue in the third quarter was NT$613.14 billion NT$3, compared with NT$414.67 billion in the same period last year. increased by 347.9% year-on-year, compared with NT$534.14 billion in the previous quarter, up 14.8% month-on-month. Net revenue in Q3 was equivalent to US$20.23 billion, while TSMC's previously expected revenue range was US$19.8 billion to US$20.6 billion. The net profit in Q3 was NT$280.87 billion, compared with NT$156.26 billion in the same period last year, an increase of 79.7% year-on-year and 18.5% month-on-month. The diluted earnings per share in Q3 was NT$10.83 compared with NT$6.03 in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 79.8% and a month-on-month increase of 18.5%. TSMC's Q3 gross profit margin exceeded 60%, reaching 60.4%, compared with 59.1% in the previous quarter (Q2) and 51.3% in the same period last year.
Lucid (LCID.US) Q3 produces 2,282 cars, and is expected to achieve production guidance in 2022. Lucid produced 2,282 cars in the manufacturing plant in , Arizona, in the third quarter, more than three times the output in the second quarter, and delivered 1,398 cars during the same period, in line with the company's expectations. In addition, the company believes it is expected to achieve the guidance previously provided to produce 6,000 to 7,000 vehicles in fiscal 2022. It is understood that the company's original production guidelines were 1,2000 to 1,4000 cars. As of press time, the stock closed up 3.48% on Wednesday to $13.09. It is worth mentioning that Lucid will announce its third-quarter results after the market on November 8, 2022.
Microsoft (MSFT.US) pointed the finger at Sony (SONY.US) in response to the investigation by British regulators into the acquisition of Actvision Blizzard (AVTI.US). UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) will officially launch a second phase of Microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard. The merger between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard is a "game-changing merger."Microsoft said the CMA directly adopted Sony's complaint without conducting a "proper" critical review, and the decision erroneously relies on Sony's selfish statements that seriously exaggerate the importance of Call of Duty to it and ignore Sony's clear competitive response capabilities. Sony's PlayStation has dominated the market for more than 20 years, and this dominance will be challenged if only one game is lost, which is obviously unreliable.
Sony (SONY.US) and Honda Motor (HMC.US) will start selling electric car in 2025. Sony Honda Mobility, a joint venture between Sony and Honda Motor, will enter the high-end electric vehicle market and start sales in 2025. Sony Honda Mobility CEO Yasuhide Mizuno said Thursday that the company will first deliver electric vehicles to the U.S. market in spring 2026 and to the Japanese market in the second half of 2026, and will consider entering the European market next. In addition, the company will produce electric vehicles at Honda's North American factory and mainly purchase raw materials in North America. Sony expects the collaboration will give it decades of expertise in auto manufacturing, sales and services, while Honda seeks to leverage Sony’s knowledge on entertainment, networking and autonomous vehicle sensors.
Important economic data and event prediction
Beijing time 20:30: The US September CPI annual rate has not been adjusted quarterly (%), and the number of people who requested initial unemployment benefits in the week ending October 8 (10,000).
Beijing time 23:00: U.S. EIA crude oil inventories changed (10,000 barrels) in the week ending October 7. API crude oil inventories for the week, released early Thursday morning, recorded an increase of 7.05 million barrels, the largest increase since the week of April 8, 2022, with an expected increase of 1.75 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.77 million barrels.
Performance Forecast
Before Friday trading: JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US), Morgan Stanley (MS.US), Wells Fargo (WFC.US), Citigroup (C.US), United Health (UNH.US)
