Yesterday to today, the most discussed thing among asset management friends is how long the overseas market will fall. Listening too much always makes me wonder if they suffer from US stock anxiety disorder. . . Bloody storms are not the norm. There are many people who want to copy the bottom of overseas assets. Today we will talk about our thoughts.
A typical view we hear:
The core assets of the US stock market fell very cheaply. This valuation is much cheaper than some leading domestic companies. I want to buy at the bottom of , which means Apple , Nvidia , AMD, etc.
But our ideas are different. According to objective data observation, the US stock market has indeed fallen for one year and rise for several years in the past 20 or 30 years. In the year of decline, there will be good returns. If you buy cheaply and lowly, you will definitely make money in the long run. This is nonsense. The difficulty lies in whether it is really low enough now? If you buy a 20% trap, your mentality will easily explode. Although it is very low, you can't hold it. You can buy it yourself.
This morning, a friend threw a picture to me and said that the US stock market should do this. . .
The trend of this picture can be directly responded, it is impossible! If the market really follows the chart from 1928 to 1932, it would have fallen by 90%, but the influence of the US stock market at that time was not as strong as it is today.
In the current global financial market, the US stock market is the largest stock liquidity reservoir, with a large number of sovereign funds and pensions in it. There are many people who want to buy at the bottom. If the money goes too much, the 90% drop will not happen again. If it really appears, the money may be of no use. . .
Here we use a Goldmoney picture to let everyone feel what level of this wave of US stocks is? In the chart below, you can clearly see that the decline rate is more than 1929 and 1987, but the amplitude is still far from the two.
The current market decline rate cannot find a precedent in the US stock market, so how can we refer to it?
At this time, we have to take out the 2015 GEM chart . Why use this chart? It is because the trading volume of the GEM is large enough, and a market with a large enough trading volume can convey sufficient effective information. There is no liquidity plate, and it is easy to do the rise and fall, and there is no reference significance. We have posted the chart of the GEM before, and today I updated it again:
with the top position of the GEM at 100%. Nasdaq is superimposed, and only look at the percentage of the decline. The x-axis is the timeline after overlapping, and the vertices of both sides overlap at the T position, which is the effect above.
The current state of the United States is similar to that of A-shares in 2015. In the past, many of the US stock repurchase bull + dividend bull were actually due to the low financing cost and the debt repurchase was completed. This invisible leverage is very terrible and hurts the corporate department.
core conclusion - This picture tells us that in the later stage of the first wave of decline, even if it is indeed very urgent, it is almost in place. 10-15% downward is the limit. This is a typical example of liquidity collapse + market sentiment collapse in comparison with the domestic leverage bull in 2015.
The decline of US stocks is a factor of liquidity and sentiment, which are both short-term factors and there are solutions. However, the damage from long-term and fundamental factors cannot be solved in the short term, and may even be real damage that is difficult to solve. is mainly reflected in the decline in consumer demand in overseas markets.
We have mentioned a idea in the previous article:
pay more attention to industries related to domestic demand, and look at companies that are completely self-sufficiency and are not affected by the outside world. Correspondingly, industries such as electronics will suffer heavy losses because there is too much external demand. These are the hardest hit areas affected by overseas YQ. The closure of stores in Apple is a proof.
Take ZTE, which recently made headlines as an example. Its revenue in 2018 was 85.51 billion yuan, of which the revenue from overseas reached 31.07 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 36.3%. If the friction of other factors is added, the damage to this fundamental is very huge.
In today's highly globalized economy, the impact of demand contraction is not isolated. The contraction of demand in several important countries will be transmitted to almost all countries, causing the shrinkage of global total demand far greater than the direct impact of a single economy. In addition to the representative electronics industry, many industries will be affected.
As an observation dimension, you can directly look at the scale of exports in various industries in China. Huatai Securities has made relevant data statistics and calculations. From the industry perspective, it is the following picture.
Specifically for the business of listed companies, we focus on companies that account for a high proportion of overseas businesses and mainly have physical demand. These companies are prone to triple kills of emotions, liquidity, and fundamentals in the current environment, so we should be more careful.
The data used here is the 2018 annual report data, because the quarterly report data released by listed companies is relatively simple, and many have not announced the specific proportion of overseas business, and most companies have not yet published the 2019 annual report. When the annual report is disclosed, we can update this data for everyone.
Finally, let me say more: In the case of a relatively decline in external demand, economic policies may tend to stimulate domestic demand. If domestic demand starts to be repaired, those companies that can be self-sufficient and not affected by the outside world, especially those that have fallen similarly before, will have some highlights. This is a way of exploration.
—————————
1) Today, an expert said that given the good safety, clear efficacy, and accessible drugs, after the scientific research and development team organized experts to fully demonstrate, it has been officially recommended to the medical treatment team and it is recommended to include the diagnosis and treatment plan as soon as possible. Falpiravir is a broad-spectrum antiviral drug developed by Japan's Fuji Company. Currently, only , Haizheng Pharmaceutical, , has a production batch number in China. But in the evening, the shareholders of Haizheng Pharmaceutical issued an announcement on reducing their holdings. . .
2) Philippines stock market is closed indefinitely, foreign exchange and bond markets are suspended; Belgium and Italy have issued short selling bans; French Finance Minister Le Maire: France will ban short selling for 24 hours. He also said that enterprises may be nationalized to protect them if necessary.
3) Microsoft announced that it will immediately close all its stores around the world, but will provide online services.
4)JD.com announced the repurchase of US$2 billion in stock.
5) According to foreign media calculations, since the US stock market began to fall into a bear market on February 19, the stock portfolio of "Stock God" Buffett has lost about US$80.2 billion, a drop of 32%. The market value of Buffett's portfolio has fallen by $71.3 billion, a 29% drop in the year to date. During the same period, the S&P 500 index fell 26%.
Welcome to follow the official account Brick Moving Group (ID: banzhuanxiaozu)
