has been concentrated in the three major stock indexes of A shares , which started at the end of last year, for more than four months. So far, not only has the pullback not yet been in place, but the decline is getting stronger and stronger, especially the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index have repeatedly hit new lows. Speaking of the reasons for the sharp drop in A-shares in this round, we have everything we say, but it seems that we can't explain the main reason, and the reason we say is difficult to convince.
Next, I want to compare the Shanghai Composite Index html February K trend chart from April 2017 to the present with US Dow Jones Index html February K trend chart (as shown below) to find some hidden problems, and hope to find the main reasons for this round of Chinese stock market crash:
April 2017 to the present Shanghai Composite Index Monthly K trend
April 2017 to the present US Dow Jones Index Monthly K trend
April 2017 to the present US Dow Jones Index Monthly K trend
1, what problems can be explained by comparing the Shanghai Composite Index with the monthly K trend chart of the US Dow Jones Index?
① The Shanghai Composite Index is undergoing violent oscillation, while Dow Jones Index is undergoing minor oscillation. Through comparison, it is obvious that the Dow Jones Index is doing smoothly, while the Shanghai Composite Index is doing bumpy. No wonder our big A-share investors are stumbling all the way, and they can't escape the ending of losing by buying ten or losing nine out of ten.
② From the results, the Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated sharply since April 2017, and the index has fallen slightly by 4.2%, indicating that investors have worked hard for five years and still have to lose money to make a name for themselves. From April 2017 to the present, the Dow Jones Index has been rising almost along a 30-degree elevation angle, with rising by as high as 42.5%. It can be said that the money-making effect is full of money. The money is easy and so good! This shows that the Dow Jones Index is very suitable for long-term holdings and can make money steadily. Even if you hold the shares for five years, you can still make a profit of 42.5%. You can really make money while you are lying down!
③ The Shanghai Composite Index has not only fluctuated violently since April 2017, but also has two relatively large pullbacks: the first round of large pullbacks ended from February 2018 to January 2019, and the continuous pullbacks fell for two years (note that it was two years) , with a drop of as high as 29.9%. The second round of significant pullback has not ended since January 2022. It has been continuously pullbacks for nearly four months, and the decline has reached 16.2% (it has not stopped falling) . Since the first round of reversal has been in two years, it is no wonder that many people still think that they are still far from the bottom. This is called habit!
The Dow Jones Index has been basically calm from April 2017 to the present, with only one three consecutive months of correction during this period, from January 2020 to March 2020, with a drop of up to 23.2%, which was a bit fast, but by August 2020, it rose back within five months after the sharp drop. It is obvious that the Dow Jones Index's sharp decline can be repaired quickly!
2. Through the above comparison, we will find the main reasons for the decline of our A-shares in this round:
① Some people say that our A-shares in this round of decline is a valuation. I am a little unbelievable, because the valuation of , like , the US stock , can the rise in , the valuation is low? Why don’t they have to kill the valuation?
② Some people say that our A-share market decline this round is due to a reasonable pullback after a two-year bull market that began in January 2019. I still find it difficult to agree with it, because although they have a round of corrections in the bull market like the US stock market, they have been in a five-year bull market from January to March 2020, it is not because of the sharp rise in the bull market, but because of the rapid decline caused by the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in the United States. Even if the Dow Jones Index started in January this year, it also saw a pullback, but can that be considered a pullback? At most, it can only be considered an oscillating market. The problem is that our A-shares have fallen by 4.2% in five years, and it is said that the bull market has risen by too high and it will be a correction, while the US stock market has risen by 42.5% in five years, and their correction is just an oscillation? Is it fair?
③ Recently, some people said that our A-share market decline this round was affected by the hike of interest rates in USD this year.I don’t like to listen to this, because the US dollar rate hike is an American business, and the US stock market should fall first if it should fall! Why is our A-share market first falling, and it is a big drop?
will not be mentioned. The above reasons are all artificial inferences that are self-deceiving. Moreover, people deceive themselves are deceiving others, but our self-deception is deceiving ourselves!
is comfortable and beneficial. Friendly reminder: I wrote this article just to hope that my compatriots, when analyzing some problems in our country, dare to compare them with other countries, and treat them equally, and don’t always look for our own faults! Our A-share market has not only become famous, but also has a serious oversold and . Why are there so many compatriots still bearish on our A-share market?
