Titanium degree chart news·The 52th issue
Planning and production｜Titan Media Visual Center, edited by｜Liu Meilan, drawing｜Chu Yanmo
Recently, Beijing has issued catering consumption coupons to consumers across the city, with a total of 100 million yuan. Once the consumption coupons are launched, they have caused a surge in popularity, and many consumers say they need to set an alarm clock to grab coupons. In order to activate the consumer market, many places have recently issued consumption coupons to stimulate the economy. It is estimated that the government's 1 yuan consumption subsidy can drive new consumption of more than 3.5 yuan on average. Consumption coupons can stimulate consumption in a short period of time, improve merchants' business conditions, and help economic recovery.
So, what "strange tricks" have been used in various places to stimulate consumption? Titanium Media·Titanium Photo News The latest issue will show you the arrival of billions of consumption coupons. How to leverage market consumption?
National consumption coupon issuance
According to incomplete statistics from Titanium Media·Tidium Degree Chart, since July, a total of 21 provinces and cities across the country have planned to issue consumption coupons, with the amount of issuance ranging from one million to hundreds of millions. As of July 20, the total amount of distribution was nearly 1.8 billion yuan. Among them, provinces and cities with a total amount of over 100 million account for nearly 40%. Shandong Province will issue 200 million home appliance coupons and 200 million passenger car consumption coupons in succession; Zhejiang Ningbo and Jinhua will also issue 300 million and 100 million consumption coupons respectively.
consumption coupons support consumption are becoming more and more extensive, covering various fields such as supermarkets, catering, cultural tourism, home appliances, automobiles, etc. Among them, tourism and catering are the main areas of benefit. Tourism consumption coupons are issued the most times, with nearly 60% of provinces and cities being issued; followed by catering consumption coupons, which 11 provinces and cities have already or will be issued. In the fields of home furnishing, sports and e-commerce, consumption coupons are issued fewer times. From this we can see that consumption coupons mainly focus on industries that are more affected by the epidemic. The past and present life of
consumption coupons
consumption coupons are not new products. Domestic and foreign governments have introduced consumption coupon policies many times to stimulate the economy.
According to statistics from Titanium Media·Tidium Dimensions, from 1929 to 1933, in order to reverse the sluggish economic trend caused by the economic crisis, some countries tried to subsidize residents' basic living consumption in the form of "coupons". In 1999, in order to stimulate consumption, the Japanese government issued "regional revitalization coupons" with a total value of more than 600 billion yen to specific groups. This consumption coupons led to an additional 202.5 billion yen, which did have a certain increase in consumption on Japanese consumption in the short term. Looking back at our country, after the 2008 financial crisis, China began to try the consumption coupon system. In 2008, Chengdu issued consumption coupons to people in need. In 2009, Hangzhou City issued consumption coupons with a total amount of hundreds of millions of yuan.
During the epidemic, consumption coupons have become one of China's measures to promote consumption. On February 13, 2020, the Macau government stated that it would issue electronic consumption vouchers with a face value of 3,000 Macau dollars to each Macau residents; in March, Jinan issued 20 million yuan in cultural and tourism consumption vouchers. Since then, due to the impact of the epidemic, many provinces and cities in China have announced the issuance of consumption coupons. In addition to China, countries such as Singapore , Thailand also issue consumption coupons of different types and amounts.
Since the epidemic, many places in China have participated in the "consumption coupon issuance relay race". Judging from the time of issuance of consumption coupons, from the first quarter of 2020 to the present, provinces and cities have issued consumption coupons in each quarter. The quarter when consumption coupons were issued was the second quarter of 2020, and the least was the first quarter of 2020. By comparing and analyzing the number of new confirmed cases of the epidemic in each quarter with the number of consumption coupons issued in each quarter, the fastest-growing number of consumption coupons issued were the second quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2022. This time point is highly correlated with the time of the outbreak of the epidemic. It can be seen that the issuance time of consumption coupons is generally chosen as the post-epidemic recovery period.
In terms of the amount of consumption coupons issued, consumption coupons with an amount of less than 10 million are issued in each quarter, accounting for 45%. In only three quarters, consumption coupons of more than 1 billion were issued, accounting for only 3.4%. It can be seen that consumption coupons are more inclined to be issued in small amounts and multiple times.How effective is the consumption coupon to boost economic benefits?
How much energy is a consumption coupon? Most of the consumption coupons are discounted. Taking the consumption coupons of "50 yuan off for purchases of 150 yuan" as an example, of the 150 yuan consumption amount, 50 yuan increased by government expenditure, which is equivalent to the government using 50 yuan to drive 3 times consumption growth. The "3 times" is leverage ratio .
consumption coupons are leveraged. From the overall economic perspective, the use of "leverage" can increase consumption amount, expand consumption demand, and drive supply growth. According to , the leverage ratio of consumption coupons can generally reach 3.4 to 5.8 times, which means that the consumption subsidy of 1 yuan can drive the new consumption scale of 3.4 to 5.8 yuan. Based on this calculation, the nearly 1.8 billion yuan consumption coupons issued after July 2022 may drive a consumption scale of 6.1 to 10.5 billion yuan.
not only boosts the economy, but also has a certain impact on the recovery of merchants' revenue. From the perspective of merchant size, the smaller the company, the more benefit it is. According to of the China Academy of Finance and Ant Group Research Institute, merchants with annual sales of less than 300,000 yuan will be divided into small and micro enterprises, and 87% of consumption coupons will flow to small and micro enterprises. Taking one week as the time dimension, compared with the week before the coupon, the operating turnover of small-scale merchants increased the most month-on-month, an increase of 6.6 times, while the increase multiples of medium and large-scale merchants gradually decreased.
On the other hand, consumption coupons also have a leverage effect. For consumers, cash can be deducted when purchasing goods using consumption coupons, which is equivalent to a decrease in the price of the goods. Therefore, they have more motivation to increase consumption and increase their willingness to consume.
write-off rate, as the main "KPI" of consumption coupons, is a key variable to measure the effectiveness of consumption coupon issuance, that is, the proportion of use of consumers after obtaining consumption coupons over a period of time. The write-off rate exceeds 90%, which means that for every 10 consumption coupons are issued, more than 9 are used.
According to the write-off rate of 21 cities we counted, the write-off rate in various places is basically between 50% and 100%, and the write-off rate of nearly 60% of cities is above 70%. From the viewing period, the write-off time of cities within two weeks accounts for nearly 43%. It can be seen that consumption coupons do play a role in leveraging consumption.
How important is boosting consumption to economic recovery and development?
consumption has become the "ballast stone" to stabilize China's economy. Final consumption expenditure accounts for China's GDP, and has increased year by year in the past 10 years and has remained firmly at more than 50%, which shows that consumption can be both stable and drive the economy, and economic stability also depends on consumption stability. Therefore, it is crucial to boost residents' willingness to consume and promote the recovery of residents' consumption.
Retail sales of social consumer goods reflect people's living standards and consumption purchasing power. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the average annual compound growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 2020 and 2021 was 4.0%, a significant decrease from the annual growth rate of 8.0% in 2019 before the epidemic. In the past year, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has dropped significantly. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods fell to negative value from March to May 2022. The epidemic suppressed consumption and domestic consumption was sluggish. Therefore, by issuing consumption coupons, it is urgent to stimulate and stimulate consumption and promote economic growth. Is issuing consumption coupons really useful for social retail sales? In 2020, China Securities Research Institute calculated the driving effect of the issuance of consumption coupons nationwide on social retail sales.
Zhongtai Securities estimates that the decline in social retail sales in 2009 compared with 2008 under the subprime mortgage crisis was measured as a reference. It is estimated that if consumption coupons are not used, the year-on-year growth rate of national retail sales in 2020 was about 2.3%. Assuming that the national consumption coupons are 80-360 billion yuan, according to the 10-15-fold leverage range, the annual social retail growth rate corresponding to the 80-360 billion yuan consumption coupons is 4.2%-15.4%, which is at least 1.9 percentage points higher than that without using consumption coupons.
In addition to issuing consumption coupons, many Western countries have adopted the practice of directly sending cash subsidies to residents during the epidemic. It was originally in mid-February 2020. Italy decided to give wage subsidies to corporate employees during the epidemic, with a maximum subsidy of 1,000 euros.
Then why did our country choose to issue consumption coupons? According to experts, if you choose to pay money directly, first of all, whether the residents receive this money is to consume or store it is entirely up to themselves. In the general environment of the epidemic, many people prefer saving rather than consumption. Distributing cash may be difficult to achieve the effect of stimulating consumption and boosting the economy.
. Since consumption coupons usually have clear and short service life, they have a more obvious role in promoting consumption; secondly, based on their own economic status and industrial development, various places can release targeted specific consumption coupons, and the issuance methods are more flexible and diverse, time-consuming and wider, and the social impact is wider. Thirdly, electronic consumption coupons can track the issuance, collection and verification of consumption coupons in real time, which helps to dynamically adjust and optimize the issuance method, so that consumption coupons can cover and benefit more residents; finally, consumption coupons play a key role in areas that are more impacted by the epidemic, helping to guide residents to consume more in these areas, improve merchants' business conditions, and promote the economy back on track.
In this way, "issuing coupons" is more suitable for national conditions than "issuing money", and the effect of consumption coupons on the short-term economic recovery is more obvious.
Data source: Titanium Media Kegubao, China Securities Research Institute, Ant Group Research Institute, Soochow Securities Research Institute, China Statistical Yearbook, National Bureau of Statistics, Public Reports compiled
