Honduras The general election on November 28 has ended. According to Taiwan's "Central News Agency" citing Reuters on the 29th, the preliminary vote results of the Honduras National Election Commission showed that 40% of the votes have been issued, and the wife of former Honduras President Seraya and the 62-year-old candidate for the "Freedom Rebuilding Party" Hiomara Castro won 53.5% of the votes; the candidate for the right-wing ruling party "National Party" Asvra won 34%. Siomara Castro has announced his victory. She told supporters: "We won! We won! Today the people uphold justice. We reverse totalitarianism."
The Taiwan authorities are in a state of anxiety in the past two days, and various media in Taiwan are also staring at the election results in Honduras. You may have some questions. Why did a country that has rarely been heard of in mainland China before, and many people don’t even know where Honduras is? Why did it attract the attention of the Taiwan authorities and various people?
Hunduras is a small Central American country. Its general election is not about most mainlanders except scholars who study international politics and Taiwan issues. However, it is very different for Taiwan. It is one of the only 15 "diplomatic countries" that Taiwan currently has. If one is lost, it will become 14, and it may also trigger the domino effect . Because after all, in the past few years, Taiwan’s “diplomatic state” has had a domino effect. In just over five years since Tsai Ing-wen came to power, Taiwan has lost seven "diplomatic countries". These 7 "diplomatic countries" are: Sao Tome and Principe , Panama, Dominican , Burkina Faso , El Salvador , Solomon Islands and Kiribati .
The reason why Taiwan authorities and various media in Taiwan are concerned about the Honduras election is also because Honduras opposition candidate Shiomara Castro declared on September 5 that if he wins the election, he will seek to establish diplomatic relations with mainland China.
Honduras is a poor small Central American country with a population of 9.4507 million (2020), an area of 112,500 square kilometers, and in 2020, the per capita GDP2,575 US dollars (international exchange rate). Last year, the national public debt of had exceeded US$13 billion, reaching 55% of GDP, of which the foreign debt quota was as high as US$8.45 billion. This also means that Honduras will repay its debts with more than 30% of its national budget. However, due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, Honduras' GDP fell by 9% in 2020, and the national economy continued to be weak and has not recovered yet.
Honduras' neighbor El Salvador and China have achieved cooperation after the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2018, which will have a profound impact on Honduras. At present, Honduras' politics and all sectors of society regard El Salvador as a model, believing that establishing diplomatic relations with China will also inject a booster into Honduras' reform and development.
In the three years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Xafran, the total trade volume between the two countries reached US$1.11 billion in 2020, of which El Salvador exported to China was US$172 million, an increase of 51.6% year-on-year. Sausage specialty products such as sugar and coffee have gradually become well-known in the Chinese market. During the raging COVID-19 pandemic, when the global vaccine shortage was short, Chinese vaccines arrived in El Salvador, injecting impetus into Saskatchewan's epidemic prevention work. El Salvador's Ambassador to China Alvarez said, "The first one willing to provide us with vaccines is China. Chinese vaccines have been vaccinated throughout the country and have been well received by all sectors of society. China's vaccines are safe and effective, and the people of El Salvador are very satisfied."
As a neighboring country, Honduras was in short supply at the time. Under such a situation, if Honduras wants to develop the economy and improve people's livelihood, it needs to rely on external forces. Establishing diplomatic relations with China is undoubtedly the wisest choice.
Currently, Castro, who won the Honduras election, hopes to establish diplomatic relations with China, but there are still two major obstacles. One is that Taiwan will increase its "financial aid" diplomacy, and the other is the interference of the United States.
It is reported that before the Honduras election, a delegation of Assistant Secretary of State Nicholas, the US State Department's Western Hemisphere Affairs Bureau, visited Honduras and put naked pressure on the candidates of the Hong Kong two factions.Afterwards, US State Department officials claimed: "We have made it clear to all the major (presidential election) participants in Honduras why we think the relationship between Taiwan and Honduras is very important." "We want to see that ("Taiwan-Hong Kong relations") continue. We have directly told the two main candidates."
After the Honduras election, whether the winning Castro will establish diplomatic relations with mainland China as mentioned earlier is still worth paying attention. But one thing is certain that the Taiwan authorities, which blindly seek "Taiwan independence", will inevitably become narrower and narrower in the future. Taiwan independence will be a dead end. The tricks of the Jin-York diplomacy will be despised. China's economic achievements and the "Belt and Road" will inevitably bring good development opportunities to friendly countries.
We hope that the leaders of Honduran can recognize the general trend and abandon the dark and turn to the light!
