Whenever the stock market is not good, bonds naturally become the favorite of low-risk investors.
Investing in bonds is indeed lower than investing in stocks, but it does not mean that there is no risk in bond investment. Friends must also correctly understand the risk of bonds when investing in bonds or bond funds.
last issue "Big Names View" In the fixed income department of Mingya Fund, Ms. Yang Juntong talked with everyone about bonds and bond funds, and also mentioned that the risks of bond investment mainly come from two aspects: default risk and interest rate risk.
Today, Ms. Yang Juntong will continue to visit the "Financial Pioneer" column of China Transportation, Radio and Television Station, Yangtze River Delta Frequency, and discuss with you in depth the risks in bond investment.
guest introduction PROFILE
Yang Juntong
Mingya Fund Fixed Income Department
10 years of experience in the financial field
10 years of experience in the financial field
focuses on macro and credit bond research
The following is the essence of the interview. Let’s take a look~
01
host: How to judge the risk of bond default?
Yang Juntong: When we analyze the credit risks of bonds, we usually analyze from three dimensions: macro , meso and micro .
First of all, the judgment of at the macro level is very important, that is, the analysis of the entire economic fundamentals of , including whether is in a period of development or recession, monetary policy , and whether fiscal policy is loose or tightening.
Judging from the historical global bond default situation, there is a relatively clear negative correlation between the default rate of bonds and the economic fundamentals.
If the entire macro environment is in a time when the credit environment is relatively poor, the bond default rate will be relatively high. We will recommend adopting some relatively defensive investment strategies, such as investing in bonds with higher credit ratings, shortening duration, etc.
The meso-level is industry analysis , which can start from the perspectives of the life cycle of the industry, the internal competitive landscape of the industry, the characteristics of supply and demand, industrial policy , etc.
The corresponding business models, development methods, and fund operation characteristics of different life cycles in the industry will be quite different.
When analyzing the industry, we usually make a horizontal order, which industries or which bonds in the industry have relatively higher risks. When investing, you may need to avoid or require higher risks. , which has higher risks.
02
host: After talking about the macro and meso-level levels, then, the micro-level analysis is an analysis of a single enterprise, right?
Yang Juntong: Yes. For the analysis of corporate fundamentals, we usually use a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis to judge .
Quantitative analysis examines business risks http://www..
combined with operating risks and financial risks analysis, a judgment on the overall strength of an individual enterprise can be drawn.
First of all, qualitative analysis, that is, analysis of the business situation of the company, its importance may be as important as quantitative analysis or even more important.
The specific analysis includes the external environment in which the company is located, the competitive position in the industry, the upstream and downstream situation, etc.
To give a simple example, for example, a company is from the highway industry, we usually think that the qualifications in this industry are relatively good.
Because it has stable cash flow income, but if the company only has one road or one bridge, the risk may be relatively high. If its road and bridge are overhauled, or there is a diversion highway or railway next to its road and bridge, it may have a great impact on the company's future cash flow.
So for such companies with relatively high business concentration, the risks are relatively high.
Another example of the corporate competition pattern, such as the upstream enterprises of the three major operators, that is, the provider of communication equipment.
They generally make good profits, but the downstream is relatively strong. At this time, we must pay special attention to the collection of accounts receivable of the enterprise, that is, how long does it take for downstream operators to pay the cash for the equipment payment to it.
03
host: Let me introduce quantitative analysis to you again.
Yang Juntong: Quantitative analysis is mainly the analysis of financial data and financial indicators .
In fact, there is another very critical factor before calculating these financial indicators, and it is necessary to evaluate the quality of the report.
Everyone knows that whether it is a listed company or a bond issuing company, the financial statements need to be audited by professional institutions.
Then, if the company frequently replaces auditor , especially before the annual report is released, and changes from a large audit firm to a small office, it will need to attract special attention.
Another point that needs attention is the auditor's opinions in the audit report, and the more common one is the standard unreserved opinions.
If it is a reservation opinion, it depends on the specific issue of this reservation opinion. For example, it is a more critical issue such as "doubtful receivable recovery situation", which requires special attention.
financial indicators , we have many different financial indicators in evaluating the operational capacity, profitability and debt repayment ability of the company, such as current ratio , quick ratio, cash short-term debt ratio , etc. We can evaluate the company's situation from various dimensions. Today, due to time constraints, I will not go into details here.
The above are a basic analysis framework for bond issuance entities.
and some bonds also have credit enhancement measures , such as third-party joint and several liability guarantee, mortgage pledge, third-party difference compensation measures , etc.
For bonds containing credit enhancement measures, we also need to further analyze the specific guarantee form and the qualifications of the guarantor.
04
host: What are the advantages of Mingya Fund in credit bond analysis?
Yang Juntong: First of all, the core management team and investment research team members of Mingya Fund have many years of rich investment research experience and accumulated . Professional teams have conducted in-depth research in macro, fixed income, credit research, quantitative investment research and asset allocation .
In terms of bond credit research, it has built a relatively complete evaluation logic and scientific analysis model of , helping the investment team to explore investment opportunities and prevent credit risks .
Finally, I would like to remind everyone that the market is risky and investment should be cautious! See you next time.
Important statement: This article is not a fund promotion material. The information or opinions in the article do not constitute any investment advice, do not constitute any sales offer, nor does it constitute the inevitable basis for the investment decisions made by the funds managed by the Company in the future. The market is risky, so be cautious when investing.When investors purchase funds, please carefully read the fund's "Fund Contract" and "Recruitment Prospectus" and make their own investment choices. The fund's previous investment performance does not represent future performance. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the text and data contained in this document, nor does it assume legal liability for any third-party investment consequences caused by this.
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