Global macro
Before the trading session on Thursday, the US September CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, and the three major stock index futures continued to fall, and the Nasdaq futures fell by more than 2%
US September CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year, estimated to be 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.3%. The US unseasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate in September was 6.6%, the highest since August 1982.
The number of people who requested unemployment benefits in the United States to October 8 was 228,000, and the expected number was 225,000, compared with the previous value of 219,000.
institutions commented that the September inflation data, including core inflation, was unexpectedly high, strengthening the expectation that the Federal Reserve's rate hike will be at its November meeting 875 basis points. swap market is fully priced at the Fed's interest rate hike by 75 basis points in November.
Moody's: U.S. inflation will be "halved" within half a year within half a year
Moody's analyst Mark Zandi said that the U.S. inflation rate will be "halved" within half a year. He said on Wednesday that CPI will drop from its current high of more than 8% to nearly 4%. But he added: "The real difficulty is getting inflation back from 4% to the Fed's target, and in terms of CPI, the Fed's lowest target could be to drop to 2.5%. So the last 1.5 percentage points will take some time because it will involve inflation in the service industry and, in turn, wages and labor markets, which will take some time." In terms of hikes in
, Zandi expects the Fed to raise interest rates to around 4.5% or 4.75% this year, he said: "After this level, I think they will stop and see how things will go."
U.S. bond liquidity pressure soared, Yellen warned that U.S. bonds may collapse
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen mentioned concerns about the possible collapse of U.S. Treasury trading, saying that the U.S. Treasury Department is working to support this key market: "We are worried that the market lacks sufficient liquidity," she pointed out that the balance sheet capacity of market makers engaged in U.S. Treasury trading has not expanded much, while the overall supply of U.S. Treasury bonds is rising.
It is worth noting that Yellen just said on Tuesday that "we really haven't seen any signs of financial instability in the US financial market." But what Yellen said on Wednesday may be the truth. According to foreign media reports, the current indicators that measure liquidity in the US Treasury market are under the greatest pressure since the peak of the COVID-19 lockdown.
CEO's opinion was recognized by IMF executives: The S&P 500 is very likely to fall 20% again
International Monetary Fund (IMF) currency and capital markets head of Tobias Adrian, the head of currency and capital markets of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), recently said that the International Monetary Fund's research found that in the current sluggish market, rising interest rates and future profit expectations are pushing down the company's valuation. He said that so far, market sentiment and risk premium have remained "relatively good", which has also led to the "orderly tightening" of the market.
When asked what comments about the S&P 500 index published by JPMorgan CEO O Jamie Dimon ( Jamie Dimon ), Adrian said this is "very likely to happen." The benchmark index has fallen about 25% so far this year.
IEA: OPEC + production cuts may fall into the global economy in recession
International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that the economy continues to deteriorate, coupled with the rise in oil prices caused by OPEC+ production cuts, is slowing down global oil demand. With the impact of continued inflationary pressure and interest rate hikes, rising oil prices may become a turning point in the global economy, which is already on the verge of recession. EU this month approved a plan to set a cap on Russian oil export prices, a complex plan aimed at cutting Russia's oil revenues. However, any major disruption in Russian oil supply could push up global oil prices and bring greater economic pain to people who are already struggling to deal with high inflation.
is inverted? Foreign media said that British Prime Minister is considering raising corporate taxes
According to British media reports, British Prime Minister Tras is considering a staggering 180-degree turn on next year's budget plan. Her core commitment when she ran for prime minister was to cancel former Chancellor Sunak's plan to raise corporate tax from 19% to 25% next April, but that promise could be abandoned now. Tras and Chancellor Quatten were warned that there was a £60 billion gap in their tax and expenditure plans. Sources confirmed that "tax increases have been put on the agenda." Government sources previously insisted that income tax relief will not be cancelled next year. Stamp duty adjustments remain unchanged, but dividend tax plans and investment tax relief may be “changed”. Affected by the news, pound and British bonds rose in the short term.
Hot News
Star Technology stocks Slow down before the market
Musk launched the "burnt hair" perfume to make $1 million quickly, calling for purchases to let him buy Twitter
Musk's The Boring Company 8 launched a perfume called "burnt hair". Musk said the fragrance sold 10,000 bottles in just a few hours, earning $1 million. According to the product web page, Burnt Hair is priced at $100 per bottle and will be shipped in the first quarter of 2023. Musk changed his self-introduction to "perfume salesman" on Twitter, and said that a name like Musk is inevitable to enter the perfume industry. He said that he would accept the purchase of Dogecoin , and even joked that he would urge everyone to buy Burnt Hair so that he could buy $Twitter (TWTR.US)$. The Boring Company is valued at $5.7 billion, and has made $10 million in selling flamethrowers, and also sold 50,000 Boring Company hats.
JPMorgan Chase: Apple Q4 revenue will reach $90 billion
JPMorgan Chase analysts predict $Apple (AAPL.US)$'s revenue in the fourth quarter of this year will be $90 billion. This exceeded the current Wall Street 's expectations for $88.6 billion in the quarter. It is understood that Apple's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021 was US$83.4 billion. In addition, JPMorgan Chase also expects earnings per share for the same period to be $1.31, compared with an estimate of $1.26.
DWAC rose more than 10% before the market, and Trump Truth Social application was approved to log in to Google store
$Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC.US)$ rose more than 10% before the market, at $17.6. Google adds Truth Social, a social media platform founded by Trump, to Google Play App Store. Earlier at the end of August, Google told the platform that it violated several standard policies during the application submission process, resulting in the inability to obtain approval. The SPAC announced this week that shareholder votes aimed at extending the acquisition transaction will be postponed until early November.
Delta Airlines rose more than 2% before the market, and its Q3 revenue increased by 11% compared with the same period in 2019
$ Delta Airlines (DAL.US)$ rose more than 2% before the market to $29.8. On October 13, Delta Air Lines announced its third-quarter results. According to the financial report, the company's Q3 revenue was US$13.975 billion, an increase of 11% over the same period in 2019, with the market expectation of US$12.892 billion; net profit was US$695 million, compared with US$1.495 billion in the same period in 2019, with the market expectation of US$1.043 billion; 's diluted earnings per share was US$1.08, compared with US$2.31 in the same period in 2019, with the market expectation of US$1.62.
BlackRock Q3 asset management scale decreased by 16% year-on-year, and net profit fell by 16%
$BLK.US (BLK.US)$Q3 total revenue was US$4.311 billion, a year-on-year decline of 15%, and the market generally expected to be US$4.228 billion; Q3 net profit was US$1.406 billion, a year-on-year decline of 16%. Diluted earnings per share of Q3 were $9.25, compared with $10.89 in the same period last year, with a general market expectation of $7.07. Q3 operating profit was US$1.526 billion, down 21% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 35.4% compared with 38.3% in the same period last year. Q3 asset management scale (AUM) further below the record mark of $10 trillion hit last year, and was $7.961 trillion as of the end of the third quarter, down 16% year-on-year. After the financial report was announced, BlackRock rose more than 1% before the market opened.
US Starbucks , Delta Air Lines membership plan interoperability: buy coffee to exchange for flight miles
Comprehensive foreign media reports, US $SBUX.US$ and Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$ cooperate, and members of the two brands can accumulate consumption and exchange rewards together. Starbucks and Delta Air Lines’ membership program has a large number of users in the United States; Starbucks has 27 million US users, while Delta Air Lines has about 100 million worldwide. From now on, users can link members of the two brands, and as long as they spend at Starbucks in the United States, they can get Delta's miles flight and vice versa. Expanding Starbucks’ membership plan is an important goal of the brand. On the one hand, it can grasp customer data and consumption habits, and it can also help promote promotions such as discount activities for members. On the other hand, generally speaking, the consumption amount of members will also be higher. Starbucks believes that this type of brand will help attract new members and increase their visibility.
focus Chinese stocks
Popular Chinese stocks generally fell before the market closed
TSMC's net profit in the third quarter increased by 18.5% month-on-month to NT$280.866 billion, and the gross profit margin was 60.4% exceeding expectations
$TSMC (TSM.US)$ released its third quarter financial report for 2022. The company's quarterly revenue was NT$613.142 billion , exceeding the market's estimate of NT$604.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.9% and a month-on-month increase of 14.8%; net profit of NT$280.866 billion hit a new record, a year-on-year increase of 79.7% and a month-on-month increase of 18.5%, exceeding the market's estimate of NT$264.66 billion; operating profit of NT$310.324 billion, a year-on-year increase of 81.5%. In terms of
profit margin, TSMC's gross profit margin in the second quarter was 60.4%, setting a new record high, exceeding the market estimate of 58.9%, and 59.1% in the previous quarter; operating profit rate is 50.6%, exceeding the market estimate of 48.7%, and 49.1% in the previous quarter. As of press time, TSMC rose by more than 2% before the market.
Duan Yongping again ADR
On October 13, well-known investor Duan Yongping updated the latest investment situation on the social platform at 9:25 am this morning, and once again bought 100,000 shares of $TCEHY (TCEHY.US)$ for US$32.05, costing about HK$25 million. Previously, Duan Yongping had bought Tencent four times in February, March, April and August, with an average cost of more than US$40. As of press time, Tencent ADR has fallen slightly.
U.S. stock trading volume TOP20
U.S. stock macro calendar reminder:
20:30 US September CPI
20:30 US initial unemployment claims in the week from October 8 to October 8 (10,000)
22:30 US to October 7 EIA natural gas inventory (10,000 cubic feet)
23:00 US to October 7 EIA crude oil inventory (10,000 barrels)
01:00 US to October 7 EIA crude oil inventory (10,000 barrels)
01:00 US to October 7 EIA crude oil inventory (10,000 barrels)
01:00 US to October 7 EIA crude oil inventory (10,000 barrels)
01:00 US to October 7 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic delivered a speech
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