Overseas Network February 21 From the 1960s to the 1990s, Taiwanese primary and secondary school students were very familiar with the concept of the "Four Little Dragons" in Asia. In the teaching textbooks, not only did Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore be the fastest-growing regions in Asia, but also listed Taiwan as the first of the "Four Little Dragons". To this day, Taiwanese people are still complacent in the face of this glorious history.
Taiwan's "President of the Central Bank" Yang Jinlong once explained why Taiwan fell behind from the head of the "Four Little Dragons", saying that the main reasons include sluggish domestic demand and crazy deposits from enterprises and not investing. Wang Wenyuan, Chairman of the Taiwan Industry Association and President of the Formosa Plastics Group, also said at the press conference of the 2018 Industrial Association white paper that Taiwan was originally the leader of the "Four Little Dragons" in Asia, but now it can't even rank the tail, so we should think about Taiwan's future carefully. Even Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu, the most popular "Internet celebrity", sighed a few days ago, "Taiwan's economy has been fooling around for more than 20 years, which has eclipsed Taiwan's halo, which once ranked first among the "Four Little Dragons" in Asia."
reflects on economic regression, but the premise is to respect the facts and put them in the right position. It is worth discussing that when did Taiwan rank first among the "Four Little Dragons" in Asia? On February 19, Shen Rongqin, an associate professor at York University in Canada, posted a curve chart of GDP (GDP) on Facebook, bluntly saying that "Taiwan has never been the leader of the 'Four Little Dragons'", and said in one sentence that "this is a rumor created for ideology." Shen Rongqin wrote an article on social networks, saying, "Taiwan has retreated from the first of the 'Four Little Dragons' in the past to the tail of the 'Four Little Dragons' today." This sentence has become common sense in the academic community, but it is still rumored by Taiwanese media and political commentary programs. It also bluntly stated that this statement itself is a rumor born from ideology.
The picture shows the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) (Source: Shen Rongqin Social Network Account)
Shen Rongqin posted a GDP growth curve chart of the "Four Little Dragons", pointing out that since 1960, after Singapore surpassed Hong Kong in the early stage, the rankings of the "Four Little Dragons" have always been Star, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, and have never changed. If we trace back further, he took 1950 as an example. The per capita GDP of the "Four Little Dragons" is, Taiwan is US$924, South Korea is US$854, Hong Kong is US$2,218, and Singapore is US$2,219, respectively. "Taiwan is still only higher than South Korea."
Comprehensive review of the economic growth rates from 1960 to 2011. The average personal income growth rate (PPP) of Hong Kong, Star, Taiwan and South Korea is: 5%, 5%, 6%, and 6%. Although Taiwan is slightly higher than Hong Kong and Star, it is about the same as South Korea, and it cannot be said to be far ahead. In contrast, the annual growth rate of the total factor productivity of the "Four Little Dragons" from 1966 to 1990 was "Hong Kong: 2.3%, Star: -0.3%, Taiwan: 1.9%, South Korea: 1.6%, Taiwan is also not among the top four regions.
The picture shows Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) (Source: Shen Rongqin Social Network Account)
Shen Rongqin also believes that the most important factor in promoting economic growth is capital accumulation, especially physical and human capital. When talking about education closely related to human capital, he listed that in 1986, the enrollment rate of the "Four Little Dragons" from high to low was from South Korea (95%), Taiwan (92%), Stars (71%), and Hong Kong (69%), and Taiwan is not the leader of the "Four Little Dragons". Shen Rongqin emphasized that the economic development of the "Four Little Dragons" is a miracle of the 20th century, but Taiwanese media and politicians should avoid excessive praise, and Taiwan has never been the leader of the "Four Little Dragons".
In fact, as early as November 2018, Chen Bozhi, honorary professor of the Department of Economics at Taiwan University and consultant to the Taiwan Economic Research Institute, clearly demonstrated in his personal column of the Taiwan Economic Research Monthly, that "Taiwan has never been the leader of the 'Four Little Dragons' in Asia."
The picture shows the World Bank's "Fixed US dollar price GDP per capita" (Source: Taiwan media)
Taiwan media quoted the "Chen Bozhi Forum" in the November 2018 issue of "Taiwan Economic Research Monthly", and Chen Bozhi cited five arguments to prove that Taiwan has never become the "Four Little Dragons" in Asia, namely "Taiwan's per capita GDP has always been lower than Hong Kong and Singapore", "South Korea often opens lower and higher after depreciation", "Taiwan's per capita fixed US dollar price GDP is often the end of the "Four Little Dragons", "Taiwan's per capita fixed purchasing power parity GDP has always been the third place", and "Taiwan's economic growth rate has never continued to be higher than the "Three Little Dragons".
Chen Bozhi believes that the achievements of economic development can be discussed from many aspects. At present, the "average income per person" is often used internationally. However, due to the different prices and currencies in different places, if the "Average GDP per person" of the "Four Little Dragons" is converted into US dollars, taking 1960 as an example, Taiwan's US$150 ranked last among the "Four Little Dragons", lower than South Korea's US$158, Hong Kong's US$429, and Singapore's US$428. If we take 2017 as an example, Taiwan's $24,576 grew by 164 times, and it also lost to South Korea's highest growth of 29,891, 189 times. Although the growth rate beats Hong Kong and Singapore, Taiwan's level is still at the end of the "Four Little Dragons".
In order to reduce the impact of exchange rate and price changes and make the comparison results more objective, Chen Bozhi used the "per capita fixed dollar price GDP" provided by the World Bank to compare the economic conditions of the "Four Little Dragons" in Asia. The results showed that from 1961 to 2015, Taiwan had only scattered seven years, and its economic growth was higher than that of other "Three Little Dragons". Therefore, Professor Chen said that even if we do not look at the above-mentioned level, it is hard to say that Taiwan was once the leader of the "Four Little Dragons".
The picture shows "per capita fixed purchasing power parity GDP" (Source: Taiwan Media)
Chen Bozhi once again cited the "per capita fixed purchasing power parity GDP" provided by the International Monetary Fund, that is, the indicators included in the purchasing power difference, which can better compare the development achievements of various places. The results show that Taiwan has been in the third place since 1980 to 2017, and has gradually been caught up by South Korea, and has gradually approached Hong Kong and Singapore. Judging from this indicator, Taiwan is neither the leader of the "Four Little Dragons" nor the end of the "Four Little Dragons".
Chen Bozhi said that Taiwan should indeed review its inferiority, rather than "arrogance" and "random criticism". He believes that Taiwan's early growth trend is higher than that of Hong Kong and Singapore, narrowing the gap in level values, but it has not been able to further leverage this advantage in the past 20 years, which is worth reviewing. But many people do not verify the facts shown by objective data at all, and regard themselves as "the arrogant land as Taiwan was the leader of the 'Four Little Dragons'". This arrogance and prejudice has led to the failure to truly review and improve the proposed policies.
In response to this, Bao Zhenghao, director of the Department of Global Political Economy, Tamkang University, Taiwan, also posted on social media that whether it is "fooling" or "adjustment" points out the cruel fact that "Taiwan's economy is stagnant", and spreading ambiguous sentences does not help in formulating good policies, and facing the numbers of information is the top priority.
The fact that "Taiwan has never been the leader of the 'Four Little Dragons'" caused an uproar on the Internet. A netizen from Hong Kong said: "Really, although offending many people, I still have to say that the concept of 'Four Little Dragons' has been mentioned since I was primary school, but no one in Hong Kong mentioned it in middle school. I really didn't expect that Taiwanese people will still use it to brag about it now." Netizens on the island admitted that this was in need of self-comfort, "It seems that four buildings are competing in the beauty. It is best for us to use ceramic tiles to tell ourselves that we are the first place." Some netizens also said, "I'm curious why the ruling party in Taiwan does not face the problem. If you want to laugh it off, you're a big mistake. Policy guidance and data support are the only way out. Who do you want to please men and women all day long?!" (Overseas Network Zhu Huiyue)
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