per person is US$12,500. I would like to say some ideas. Today, the Bureau of Statistics released data. In 2021, the GDP of is 211,4367 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% over the previous year, and an average growth of 5.1% in two years.
Among them, the added value of industries above the scale is even faster, an increase of 9.6% over the previous year, and an average growth of 6.1% in two years.
This industrial added value includes three industries: mining, manufacturing and electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply growth.
The added value of manufacturing industry has increased by 9.8%. Well, the proportion of manufacturing industry is growing faster than that of GDP, which shows that the proportion of manufacturing industry in my country is increasing in 2021. This is a good thing. Manufacturing is a chore, but it is also a chore with high returns. The two are intertwined. Many first-mover countries have found that once the manufacturing industry is transferred, it cannot be returned. When you need it, such as the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020, you will find how important it is.
Just the year when the new crown epidemic broke out in 2020, masks, a common thing, became a scarce commodity, and also made many domestic companies make a lot of profits. For example, BYD 's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2020. After deducting government subsidies, non-recurring gains and losses, most of them came from the production of masks, helping them overcome the difficulties at that time.
At the end of 2021, the national population (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities and active-duty soldiers, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents and foreigners living in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities) is 1412.6 million, an increase of 480,000 from the end of last year.
10.62 million births throughout the year, and the birth rate of is 7.52‰; the death toll is 10.14 million, and the death rate is 7.18‰; the natural population growth rate is 0.34‰.
Population Change Statistics Department generally like to use thousand points. We use % to see it more. In 2021, the population birth rate is 0.752%, the mortality rate is 0.718%, and the natural population growth rate is 0.034%.
The birth population has fallen too quickly. In the 2016 statistical bulletin, the birth population is still 17.86 million, and
has dropped from 17.86 million to 10.62 million from 2016 to 2021. This speed is really too fast.
The population structure is generally aging, and young people will accelerate their concentration in big cities. Big cities don’t have to worry about aging. How to solve the hollowing out and deep aging problems in fourth, fifth and sixth-tier cities in the future is a problem.
As we personally, we may not be able to change the torrent of the times, so we can only follow the general trend to make choices and judgments. Recently, my parents bought houses in the county town of my hometown. Their social relations are all in the county town, so they will definitely retire here. I found that many sellers cannot sell their houses for a long time....
The population of Qipu in 2020, the population of my hometown's county town has decreased by about 100,000 compared with the Liupu in 10 years ago.
During the house viewing process, some sellers were willing to accept the buyer's bargaining and took the house. I asked my parents where the sellers went, some went to Beijing, some went to provincial capital, some went to Chongqing... Many of them went to children.
Some sellers just insist on the price not to lower the price, and they haven't sold it for more than half a year. To be honest, I'm very worried about them. Do you think you can sell it at a better price in the future? I feel that the probability is not high. After more than half a year, or by 2023, the population of the county town will be smaller than now.
I think most of the readers who read my article are middle-aged and young people. I suggest that everyone let their parents in their hometown look around when they have time and ask where the people who sell the house are going, so that they can actually experience what changes are happening in their hometown.
I have always felt that in some small cities, counties, townships and other small cities with a declining population, they should pilot the release of land supply, and pilot the development of some large spaces and high-quality residential buildings. They should not be densely packed in small and medium-sized cities. This can release the purchasing power of some big cities here, and it is more conducive to retaining young people and fighting the hollowing outflow of population.
I think there is a great demand for North America and Australian-style large-space lifestyle. Meeting this demand will be beneficial to the economy, or in other words, a country as big as ours should have a differentiated lifestyle.
Big cities have a large population and do not meet this condition. They can fully pilot the third, fourth, fifth and sixth tier cities where the population is already decreasing.
This is what my hometown is. The population is decreasing, and there are middle-aged and elderly people who have money to buy a house, but almost only high-rise communities can choose from. Single-family residential products are extremely rare, resulting in very expensive prices.
In addition, there are tall buildings and small houses in big cities and large spaces in North American style villas in my hometown. I think there will always be young people who choose the latter. If both are tall buildings, it is even hard to say.
people either go to advanced industries to gather, accept fierce competition in places with many job opportunities while realizing self-worth, or choose to have relatively few job opportunities, but the competitive pressure is small, living conditions are good, and living is easy to live.
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Therefore, it is possible that my country will become a high-income country for the first time in history this year (2022). Of course, it depends on how much the World Bank will raise the standards for high-income countries this year.
The World Bank's high-income countries are not the ultimate goal. my country's development ambitions are obviously far more than that. We must also move towards 20,000 or 30,000 US dollars per capita.
From the development trajectory of the leading regions in history, once the per capita GDP exceeds 10,000 US dollars, it means that the overall level of the industry has gradually gotten rid of the middle and low end and is moving towards the middle and high end. Then the appreciation of the local currency has strong potential, which will accelerate the growth of per capita US dollar GDP.
development, the ultimate goal is to improve people's living standards, and improving living standards is actually achieved by spending money. In China, 1 yuan can only be spent as 1 yuan, but when I go abroad, the improvement of living standards is reflected in my 1 yuan, which can be worth more money from abroad. Whether it is buying foreign products, travel, studying abroad, or manual services abroad, it has become cheaper.
I saw the time of the developed economy in East Asia from to 10,000 US dollars to 20,000 US dollars. Overall, it was relatively fast.
The most radical one was Japan. The average per capita exceeded 10,000 US dollars in 1983, and it exceeded 20,000 US dollars in 1987. Of course, this was the result of the sharp appreciation of the yen by the Square Agreement , which took only 4 years.
Hong Kong exceeded US$10,000 in 1988, and in 1993, it exceeded US$20,000, which took five years.
Singapore 1989 exceeded US$10,000 per capita, and by 1994, it took 5 years.
South Korea exceeded US$10,000 in 1994, and it took seven years to encounter a financial crisis (the per capita GDP in 2003 exceeded the historical highest level in 1996 before the financial crisis), and also exceeded US$20,000 in 2006, which took a total of 12 years, but if the 7 years delayed by the financial crisis were removed, it would be about five years.
Taiwan is an exception. It exceeded US$10,000 in 1992, and it was still ahead of South Korea at that time, but it only exceeded US$20,000 in 2011, which took 19 years.
Judging from the situation in 2021, several core industries in China are OK to upgrade, especially automobiles are the biggest highlight. The exports in 2021 exceeded 2 million for the first time, doubled from 2020, breaking the situation where my country's automobile exports exceeded 1 million for the first time in 2012, and hovered around 1 million for a long time.
Semiconductor industry and human vaccine industry are also developing rapidly.
Like Unigroup Zhanrui announced that the company's annual operating income in 2021 was RMB 11.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78%. Among them, the revenue of consumer electronics business increased by 60% year-on-year; the revenue of industrial electronics increased by 120% year-on-year. To be honest, this number also surprised me, because it means that the company's revenue in 2020 was only about 6.57 billion yuan. It can be said that the executives of HiSilicon have brought great results in the past two years.
Regarding the independence of semiconductors, this is a matter that is gradually undergoing quantitative change, and will eventually undergo qualitative change. The current growth rate is good, so you only need to wait for that day to come.
human vaccine exports began to explode in December 2020, with exports reaching US$190 million that month, exceeding the total of the first 11 months of 2020.
From January to November 2021, my country's human-use vaccine exports were 4466.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3822.3%; the amount was RMB 93.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14731.6%, which will definitely exceed RMB 100 billion for the whole year.
You should know that in 2019 and before, China's daily human vaccine exports never exceeded 1 billion yuan. There is no need to worry about the industry upgrading of
At present, it is mainly a problem of balanced development in the future. In fact, the per capita development in my country has reached 10,000 US dollars, which is a result of high education and high-income people, which has increased significantly compared with the past. The urban population capacity of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in my country is only about 80 million, and the number of strong second-tier cities is only 100 million or 200 million.
On one side is high education, and the number of middle- and high-income people continues to increase with the economic growth, among which, especially high-income people, is still highly concentrated in first-tier cities.
1 On the other side, the population capacity of first-tier cities is limited, so the results will inevitably include housing prices, children's education and other prices.
my country is currently moving from US$10,000 per capita to US$20,000. The number of people with high education and high income will continue to rise. If this number of people still mainly occurs in first-tier cities and a few strong second-tier cities, the competition will be more intense and housing prices will be even more unsatisfied.
Therefore, in the next ten years, the balanced development of the region and domestic industrial transfer are the main issues we need to pay attention to. It is very important to solve this problem. Otherwise, we will continue to move towards the direction of the Seoul metropolitan area of South Korea, which concentrates half of the country's population, and is extremely inverted .
Like Fenghua Hi-Tech, a leading domestic passive component enterprise, is in Zhaoqing City, Guangdong Province. The housing prices here are much lower than those in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and have not affected the rapid development of the company. The company achieved a total operating income of 3.96 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 35.5%; and achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 880 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.7%.
The employees and engineers of this company will at least have a much higher happiness index than in big cities.
In the future, with the spread of advanced industries across the country, some second-, third- and fourth-tier cities will benefit and rise. In the past ten years, the fast-developing cities such as Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Hefei will never be the entire list. The wealth and living standards of these urban residents have increased rapidly overall. In the process of moving towards 20,000 US dollars in the future, new urban players will definitely rise to join this list.
