According to TrendForce's research, affected by the epidemic lockdown and brand inventory adjustments, laptop panel shipments in April this year were 17.5 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 21.5%, becoming the lowest shipment of the new crown epidemic since April 2020. At the same time, it is estimated that the shipment of laptop panels in the second quarter will be 55.1 million pieces, a quarterly decrease of 21.2% and an annual decrease of 19%.
TrendForce TrendForce Analysis, this wave of data correction mainly comes from two reasons. First, terminal demand has slowed down, and the growth of major economies around the world has slowed down due to factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, high inflation and epidemic lockdown, and the overall consumption capacity has slowed down. Observe the brand sales of the whole machine in the first quarter of this year were 55.6 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. The brand faced a sales recession in the first quarter, which led to the second quarter's outlook becoming conservative, and the purchase volume on the panel side also took a sharp turn for the worse.
Secondly, the panel inventory level in the brand's hands remains high. The strong demand for laptop terminals and panel out of stock in the past two years have prompted brands to release a large number of orders to panels to grab scarce panel resources. However, facing a reversal of demand, the panels purchased in the past have been converted into large-scale inventory. It is reported that the inventory of laptop panels in the brand’s hands is about 8 to 12 weeks before the end of April; compared with the normal water level, 2 to 4 weeks higher than the 6 to 8 weeks, which has led to the brand having to place a large number of orders for laptop panels to adjust inventory.
The momentum of laptop panels in the second half of the year is still weak, and the annual shipment volume has been revised down to 240 million
After facing the correction in the second quarter, TrendForce believes that there are still two major risks in the second half of the year. First, the sales of panel inventory may continue to the third quarter. In addition to the suspension of OEM factories or the impact of production capacity, the delay in logistics and parts also reduces the production capacity of the entire machine assembly, and panel inventory will not be able to be successfully sold. At the same time, as mentioned above, as expected that the brand may not be able to complete sales in the second quarter, the driving momentum of laptop panels in the third quarter may be affected.
Secondly, the inventory level of brand-side whole machines is high. Shipping has continued to be blocked since the second half of 2021, and many laptops are still on the sea or at container distribution centers in ports, becoming stocks of whole machines that have not yet been sold. TrendForce said that the inventory status of brand laptops is significantly higher than that of the epidemic, and the inventory of high water levels and the weak terminal demand will further extend the correction time for laptop panel shipments.
Therefore, the momentum of laptop panel pulling goods in the third quarter may be difficult to reverse, and the rebound momentum of the fourth quarter will depend on the sales status of the panel inventory in the brand's hands and the entire machine inventory. To sum up, TrendForce predicts that the shipment of laptop panels will be revised down to 240 million pieces in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%, and there may still be a downward possibility. The market trend depends on changes in the overall environment.
