On October 6, local time, Georgieva, President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), delivered a speech at Georgetown University. China News Service reporter Sha Hanting, photographed by
text/Chen Kangliang
International Monetary Fund (IMF) is not optimistic about the global economy this year and next two years.
In its latest " World Economic Outlook Report ", the forecast for the global economy this year remains at a growth of 3.2%; the outlook for the global economy next year is lowered by 0.2 percentage points.
At the same time, the IMF significantly lowered the latest economic expectations of 143 economies around the world in 2023, which accounted for 92% of the global GDP.
IMF What is the basis for this prediction? What economic risks are prompted? What "prescriptions" are prescribed? What are the economic prospects of China, the United States and Europe?
is a direct express train that integrates official and expert authoritative views, launching the "Ten Questions and Ten Answers": What is the latest prediction of
IMF for the world economy this year?
National Issues Express: IMF expects the global economy to grow by 3.2% in 2022, which is the same as the agency's previous (July) forecast.
Pictures: The latest "World Economic Outlook Report" of the International Monetary Fund,
, developed countries and , , expected performance?
National Issues Express: IMF expects developed economies to grow by 2.4% this year, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous forecast. Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 3.7% this year, up 0.1 percentage point from previous forecasts.
What are the "stumbling blocks" in the world economic recovery?
countries are the direct train: IMF emphasizes that rising inflation remains the most direct threat to current and future economic recovery, because high inflation will squeeze the actual income of various countries and destroy the stability of the macroeconomic . The report also pointed out that the downward risks of the economic outlook mainly include:
— monetary policy may be misjudgment, which does not conform to the correct position of reducing inflation;
—The policy paths between large global economies may continue to diverge, leading to further appreciation of the US dollar;
—More energy and food price shocks may cause inflation to last longer;
—Tightening of global financing conditions may trigger a wide range of debt crises in emerging markets;
—Repeated COVID-19 pandemic or new global health panic may further hinder economic growth.
Picture: The latest "World Economic Outlook Report" of the International Monetary Fund
When will global inflation peak?
National Direct: IMF predicts that global inflation rate will rise from 4.7% last year to 8.8% this year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous forecast. But the IMF also expects inflation to drop to 6.5% next year and further drop to 4.1% in 2024. Overall global inflation is expected to peak at 9.5% in the third quarter of this year and fall to 4.7% in the fourth quarter of next year.
In which economies are mainly in inflation?
is a direct train: IMF said that upward pressure on inflation is widely present in developed economies, while it is quite different among emerging and developing economies. Therefore, the IMF has raised its inflation expectations for developed economies by a larger margin, and it is expected that its overall inflation rate will be 7.2% and 4.4% in the next two years, up 0.6 and 1.1 percentage points from the previous forecast, respectively, and said that the sharp increase in inflation rates for the United States and the euro zone is the main reason. What "prescriptions" have
IMF prescribed for the world economy?
National Issue Express: IMF Recommendation:
—Fiscal policy should not go against the monetary authorities' efforts to reduce inflation. Doing so will only prolong inflation and may cause serious financial instability.
— Energy crisis , especially the energy crisis in Europe, is not a temporary impact. Vulnerable groups should be protected through targeted fiscal measures.
- Fiscal policy can help economies adapt to more turbulent environments by investing in productivity, such as human capital, digitalization, green energy and supply chain diversification. Tobias Adrian, financial advisor and director of the Money and Capital Markets Department of IMF, said that at this stage, the primary goal of policy makers should still be to reduce inflation. So far, the tightening measures of the Federal Reserve , the European Central Bank and other developed economies have not been intense. At present, the IMF does not believe that there is an over-restriction.
IMF "score" to major economies around the world?
National Direct: For the United States, the IMF expects its economic growth this year to be 1.6%, a sharp drop of 0.7 percentage points, which reflects the unexpected contraction of US real GDP in the second quarter. The IMF said the decline in actual disposable income of Americans continues to erode consumer demand, and higher interest rates are causing significant damage to spending, especially residential investment spending.
For Eurozone , its growth in 2022 is expected to be 3.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the last forecast, mainly because most economies in the euro zone exceeded expectations in the second quarter. However, expectations for the eurozone's economic growth in 2022 reflect the average, thus concealing the significant differences among member states. For example, thanks to the recovery of tourism-related services and industrial production, Italy and Spain have relatively good growth rates in 2022. However, France and Germany's economic growth forecast this year is only 2.5% and 1.5%, and Germany's economic growth rate in 2023 is expected to turn to -0.3%.
For the Chinese economy, the IMF expects growth rates to be 3.2% and 4.4% in the next two years respectively. Is
IMF's prediction of China's economy accurate? Cheng Qiang, chief macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Securities, said that from historical data, the IMF underestimates China's economy more times than the United States; and from the perspective of average error, compared with the United States and Europe, the IMF's predictions of China's economy have characteristics of "stronger underestimation" and "weaker overestimation" compared to the United States and Europe. During the economic downward cycle, the IMF will continue to downgrade the economic forecast , among which the underestimation of China's economy is more significant. According to economic fundamentals and historical forecasts, China's economy may be in an undervaluation range, while the US and European economies may be in an overvaluation stage. What is the prediction of the world economy next year?
national direct train: IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast in 2023 to 2.7%, which is the lowest level since 2001 (2.5%) except for global financial crisis and the new crown epidemic, and the probability of a 25% global economic growth rate dropping below 2%.
Regarding the reasons for this downgrade, the IMF said that it is because the risks mentioned in the previous forecast came true: financial conditions in most regions around the world are tightening, and the major global central banks are expected to raise interest rates significantly to fight inflation; as the spillover effect of the escalation of the situation in Ukraine, Russia tightens its supply of natural gas , etc. What is the "World Economic Outlook" report released by
IMF?
National Direct: "World Economic Outlook" report is one of the flagship reports of the IMF. Since 1998, the IMF has released the World Economic Outlook report in April, September or October each year, during the spring and autumn annual meetings, reviewing the world economy within two years and looking forward to the economic situation in the next six years. In July 2007, the IMF began to revise the World Economic Outlook report, updating its economic forecast for the current year and the next year, and on the basis of the original, two additional issues of the World Economic Outlook supplementary reports were issued in January, June or July each year to promptly revise the economic forecast.
From: Guoshi Express
Editor: Chen Haoxing
Editor: Wei Xi
Editor: Wei Xi
