(report producer/analyst: Tianfeng Securities Sun Xiaoya Pan Qing)
. The consumer battery cell market looks at domestic substitution, while the power energy storage market looks at differentiated competition .1 Consumer battery is a mature market of hundreds of billions of yuan, and it is expected to maintain single-digit growth in the future
The downstream of consumer batteries includes three categories: mobile phones, laptop (including tablets), and others (mainly small battery cells, including smart wearables, power tools, drones, etc.).
2021 global smartphone shipments were around 1.36 billion units, and it declined year-on-year due to the impact of the epidemic in 22 years, and returned to positive growth in 23 years. We expect the CAGR to be 3.3% in 22-25. In 21, 1.36 billion smartphone shipments were shipped worldwide, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. In 222, IDC is expected to see global smartphone shipments drop to 1.31 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%.
From a structural perspective, the proportion of G is increasing year by year. In 2021, the global shipment of 5G mobile phones was 542 million units, and the penetration rate of increased from 22.4% in 2020 to 40.0%. IDC predicts that the shipment of 5G mobile phones will reach 680 million units in 2022, with a penetration rate of 52%.
2021 laptop annual shipments will be around 500 million units, and will decline year-on-year due to the impact of the epidemic in 22 years, and will be expected to resume positive growth in 23 years. We expect the CAGR to be 1.6% in 22-25. From 2020 to 2021, due to the impact of the epidemic, people's remote working from home has promoted the rapid increase in demand for laptops, and shipments have reached historical highs in 2021.
But high growth is not the main trend in the future. IDC predicts that global traditional PC/tablet shipments will be 321/158 million units in 2022, respectively, and it is estimated that it will decrease by 7.9%/6.4% year-on-year, respectively, and positive growth will begin to resume in 2023.
Based on this, in the long run, we expect the growth rate of the laptop market to be between 1-2%, showing a slow growth trend.
The emerging consumer electronics field is developing rapidly and has become a new growth point.
G technology large-scale application will bring a large-scale application foundation for VR/AR devices, and the smart wearable market is expected to maintain rapid growth. IDC predicts that the shipment of wearable devices will be close to 800 million units in 2025. Based on this, we estimate that the CAGR in five years will be 10.6%.
In recent years, the development of the drone industry has been accelerating. According to Mordor Intelligence data, the market size is expected to reach US$74 billion in 2025, and the CAGR from 2021 to 2025 will be 15.3%.
consumer battery industry is expected to maintain a slight growth, with a CAGR of 3.0% from 2021 to 2025. We expect the market space to reach 114.1 billion yuan in 2025. The core assumptions of are as follows:
- smartphones: 2022 shipments and growth rate in 2023 are predicted according to the latest IDC disclosed data, and the remaining growth rate assumptions are shown in Figure 1; 5G penetration rate is shown in Figure 2; assuming that the capacity of 4G and 5G batteries is 3800/4500mAh, the price of a single Ah is 6.5 yuan, and the unit price of 4G and 5G mobile phone batteries is about 24.7 and 29.9 yuan. In 2022, affected by the price increase of raw materials, the unit price is assumed to rise by 5%, and the decrease is 3% in 2023.
- feature phone: According to the single-quarter shipment volume in 2020, it is estimated that the annual shipment volume will be 296 million units, and assuming that the shipment volume will drop by 15% annually; the battery capacity is 2Ah, the single Ah price will be 6.5 yuan, and the unit price will drop by 5% annually.
- notebook: According to the latest IDC disclosed data, the growth rate forecast is shown in Figures 3 and 4; assuming that the average price of PC and tablet computer batteries is 120 yuan/unit and 50 yuan/unit, in 2022, affected by the price increase of raw materials, assuming that the unit price rises by 5%, and falls by 3% in 2023.
- wearable devices: The shipment volume in 2025 is predicted based on IDC data, and the growth rate forecast is shown in Figure 5; assuming that a single battery cell is sold at 6.5 yuan, affected by the price increase of raw materials in 2022, assuming that the unit price increases by 5%, and a decrease of 3% in 2023.
- others: mainly drones, etc., predicted based on EVTank data.
.2 The leading consumer battery cells in Japan and South Korea have turned to power batteries, bringing opportunities for replacement to domestic companies
industry concentration is high, with the laptop CR3 in 2021 being 76% and the mobile phone CR5 is 74%.
- laptop lithium battery market: ATL, Zhuhai Guanyu, and LG new energy account for 37.3%, 27.2%, and 11.5% respectively.
- mobile phone lithium battery market: ATL, Samsung SDI , BYD , LG New Energy, and Zhuhai Guanyu account for 38.8%, 11.5%, 8.8%, 8.4%, and 6.8%, respectively, ATL is the dominant player.
The leading Japanese and Korean companies have gradually turned to power batteries, bringing opportunities for breakthroughs to domestic companies. The growth rate of the consumer battery industry has slowed down, and some leading Japanese and Korean companies have begun to transform and shift their focus to the field of power battery with broad development prospects.
- laptop lithium battery market: From 2019 to 2021, in addition to the leading ATL, the shares of other leading Japanese and Korean companies such as Samsung SDI and LG New Energy have dropped rapidly, and the total share of the two has dropped from 32.5% to 15.9%. Domestic leading companies represented by Zhuhai Guanyu seized the opportunity and gained more shares. Among them, Zhuhai Guanyu's market share increased from 20.9% in 2019 to 27.2% in 2021. BYD has entered the top five since 2020, and its share increased from 4.7% in 2020 to 6.3% in 2021.
- mobile phone lithium battery market: Samsung SDI and LG new energy market share has also declined overall, and the total share of the two has dropped from 21.0% in 2020 to 19.8% in 21, creating space for the increase in the share of domestic enterprises.
.3 The market space for power & energy storage batteries reaches trillions, with a compound growth rate of more than 40% in the next few years
Electric vehicles are in a period of high-speed penetration, and the CAGR is expected to be 41% from 2021 to 2025. The global electric vehicle sales in 2021 were 6.16 million units, with a penetration rate of 8%. According to our estimates, the global electric vehicle sales in 2022 will be 9.75 million, with a penetration rate of 12%. By 2025, the sales will reach 24.22 million, with a penetration rate of 27%, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 41%.
power battery benefited from the strong growth of the electric vehicle market and grew rapidly. The global power battery installed capacity in 2021 is about 300GWh, and we expect it to reach 1439GWh in 2025. Assuming the installed sales ratio is 85%, the average unit price of power batteries in 2021 is 0.75 yuan/Wh, considering the downward trend of battery prices, from the perspective of market space, we expect it to be 264.7 billion yuan in 21 and 1 trillion yuan in 25 years, with a compound growth rate of 40%, and the market space is broad.
Energy storage market is in the starting period and has strong growth potential. The global installed capacity of energy storage batteries in 2021 is about 33GWh, and we expect it to reach 440GWh in 2025. Assuming the installed sales ratio is 85%, the average unit price of energy storage batteries in 2021 is 1.37 yuan/Wh, considering the downward trend of battery prices, from the perspective of market space, we expect it to be 52.8 billion yuan in 21 and 357.5 billion yuan in 25 years, with a compound growth rate of 61%. The energy storage battery field is growing rapidly and has broad development prospects.
.4 The power battery market competition is fierce, and energy storage, especially household storage, is bluer.
Power battery industry trend: is in the 1-N stage, the leader is clear, and the second-tier pattern is to be determined.
According to GGII data, in 2021, the global power battery company CR5 has reached 81.8%, with the leader being CATL , with its market share of 32.1% in 2021. The second-tier pattern is still unstable, and many domestic battery companies are in the second echelon, such as China Innovation Airlines, Guoxuan Hi-Tech , Vision Power, etc.
Energy storage battery industry characteristics: is in the 0-1 industry growth period, and the pattern is to be determined.
According to EVTank and SNE data, in 2020, the global energy storage battery CR5 was 86.0%, while by 2021, the CR10 was 83.8%. The degree of market competition has continued to increase, and a stable pattern has not yet been formed.
household storage market has a high growth rate and wide space. It is estimated that the global household storage market space is expected to reach 164 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of up to 79% in five years. Currently, global energy shortage, overseas electricity and gas prices are rising, and the economy of photo storage is highlighted. Under the general trend of carbon neutrality, the household storage track will grow rapidly.
According to GGII statistics, the global household storage installed capacity in 2021 is approximately 6.4GWh, and is expected to exceed 15GWh in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 134%. It is optimistic that the global installed capacity scale is expected to reach 100GWh in 2025.
According to GGII data, the average hardware cost of household storage in 2021 is about 2.5 yuan/Wh. Based on the annual reduction of energy storage system costs by 10%, it is estimated that the scale of household storage industry in 2025 can reach 164 billion yuan, with a 5-year CAGR of 79%.
household storage market has high gross profits and stronger profitability than motivation.
Among the major domestic power and energy storage companies, Paineng Technology and Penghui Energy are representative companies of household storage, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, CATL, and Funeng Technology are representative companies of power batteries. Judging from the gross profit margin level of representative companies in 22Q1, the gross profit margin of household storage is higher than that of power batteries, especially Paineng Technology, as the leader in Chinese household storage, its gross profit margin is higher than that of power batteries leader CATL 13pct.
. Company profile: The world's leading consumer battery company, in the power and energy storage layout .1 After more than 20 years of deep cultivation, the consumer battery business has been leading in the industry
The company has been leading in the industry and has developed into a market leader.
- The predecessor of the company, Guanyu Co., Ltd., was established on May 11, 2007 by Haguangyu Power Supply, Jiayun Technology, and Guangyu International Investment, and established a factory in Zhuhai.
- In 2010, the company became the number one brand of laptops at that time.
- In 2011, the company expanded from the battery cell manufacturing field to the PACK field, began to directly supply batteries to terminal customers, and took the lead in providing battery solutions for racing electric motorcycles.
- In 2015, the company became the top 5 polymer lithium battery suppliers in the world.
- In 2017, the company was independent of Harbin Guangyu and established a new production base in Chongqing in 2018.
- In 2019, the company was officially renamed Zhuhai Guanyu. In April 2020, the company was changed to Co., Ltd. . In 2021, the company was listed on Science and Technology Innovation Board .
2.2 The company's equity structure is relatively concentrated, and the actual controller holds 30% of the shares
The company's equity structure is concentrated, and the actual controller is Mr. Xu Yanming. Mr. Xu Yanming controls the voting rights of 30.20% of the company's shares through the holdings such as Zhuhai Pureda and Chongqing Pureda. The company has 15 major subsidiaries that directly or indirectly hold shares, mainly engaged in the research and development, production, packaging processing and trade of consumer batteries and power batteries.
.3 Consumers are the main source of current profits, and power and energy storage are in the layout stage
The company mainly engages in consumer lithium batteries and is also laying out the power lithium battery business. Consumer lithium-ion battery products include battery cells and PACK, and their application areas cover laptops, tablets, smartphones, smart wearable devices, consumer drones, etc. Power lithium-ion battery products include battery cells, modules and PACK, which are mainly used in automotive start-stop system , electric motorcycles, energy storage and other fields.
21, and profits in 22Q1 were all increased, and profits declined year-on-year due to the pressure of rising raw materials prices + equity incentive fees.
htmlIn 021, the company achieved revenue of 10.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%. The high growth was mainly due to the increase in the company's product market demand and sales; the net profit attributable to shareholders was 946 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and the growth rate slowed down.2022Q1, the company achieved revenue of 3.005 billion yuan, an increase of 32.2% year-on-year, mainly due to the company's business expansion and expansion of operating scale; the net profit attributable to shareholders was 51 million yuan, a decrease of 80.0% year-on-year, mainly due to:
1) the rising raw material prices and the decline in gross profit margin;
2) the company's implementation of equity incentives + expanding R&D investment, etc., led to a significant increase in period expenses.
From 2021 to Q1 2022, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin and net profit margin declined, mainly due to the increase in price of lithium cobalt oxide .
gross profit margin fell from 31.2% in 2020 to 19.0% in Q1 2022, and net profit margin fell from 11.7% to 1.7%, mainly due to the continued rise in prices of raw materials such as lithium cobalt oxide. Among the company's cost structure, direct material accounts for as high as 72.5%, and fluctuations in raw material prices will have a significant impact on gross profit margin.
More than 99% of the company's main business revenue comes from consumer battery business, and the power battery business is currently very small.
The main revenue data from 2017 to Q1 2022 shows that the proportion of consumer battery business revenue has always exceeded 99%, which is the company's core business. The revenue in 2021 reached 9.873 billion yuan, and the revenue in 2022Q1 2022 reached 2.857 billion yuan.
's power battery business is continuing to be laid out, and its size is very small at this stage, but overall, revenue is increasing. In 2017, the power revenue was only 0.4 million yuan, and by 2021, the revenue has reached 94 million yuan.
Consumer battery business: The main source of current profits, mainly including laptops and mobile phones
- revenue share: Currently, the company's consumer battery revenue is mainly laptop revenue, and in 2021, the proportion of laptop revenue accounted for 68.6%.In 2021, the company's laptop/mobile phone revenue was RMB 6.769/2.712 billion, an increase of 47.9%/34.1% year-on-year. The company is the world's second laptop battery supplier, and its market share has steadily increased. The high market share has supported the company's laptop battery business revenue to steadily increase. We believe that the company's mobile phone battery business revenue may still have a lot of room for growth.
- Enterprise 6 Profitability: company's laptop profitability is generally stronger than that of mobile phones, but the gap is narrowing. In 2020, the gross profit margin of laptops was 34.2%, and the gross profit margin of mobile phones was 25.4%, lower than the 8.8pct of laptops. By 2022Q1, the gross profit margin of laptops was 20.4%, and the gross profit margin of mobile phones was 16.5%, lower than the 3.9pct of laptops.
Power battery business: It is a new field and is the second growth point in the future
- Profitability: The company's power business is still in the layout stage and has not yet started. By 2022Q1, the gross profit margin is still negative. However, sales volume is showing a growing trend. In 2021, sales of power battery products were 719,300, an increase of 527.1% year-on-year. In Q1 2022, sales volume was 171,300.
- Customer: The company's current power battery customers include Hojue , Cummins , China Automobile , SAIC, GM, ZTE, Sonnen, etc. The company is constantly developing customers, and automotive low-voltage batteries have been designated by many famous domestic and foreign OEMs. In addition, the company has obtained the designated by the Liuzhou Wuling PHEV battery general package. With the release of the company's production capacity and the introduction of new customers, the company's power battery business is expected to achieve rapid growth.
PACK business: build an integration of battery cells + PACK, and layout the entire industrial chain
- PACK product unit price is higher than battery cells. Increasing the proportion of PACK products is conducive to achieving revenue growth. From 2018 to 2021, the proportion of the company's PACK product showed an upward trend. In 2021, the company's PACK product revenue was 3.19 billion yuan, accounting for 32.0%. From the perspective of revenue growth rate contribution, the revenue of main business increased by 47.7% year-on-year in 2021, of which PACK product revenue increased by 69.8% year-on-year, and battery cell product revenue increased by 39.2% year-on-year. The contribution of PACK revenue growth was greater than that of battery cells. From the perspective of unit price, the unit price of PACK products is higher than that of battery cells. In the future, with the continuous increase in PACK production capacity, revenue is expected to continue to grow.
- creates battery cell + PACK integration, lays out the entire industrial chain, and provides one-stop services for downstream customers, which is conducive to improving customer stickiness and further enhancing market competitiveness. In addition to the original customers such as HP, Xiaomi, ZTE, Huawei, Honor , Amazon, BOSE, etc., directly place orders to the company to purchase PACK products, the company began to directly supply PACK products to terminal customers such as Dell, OPPO, DJI, Acer, and MSI .
.4 The expense rate is well controlled, and cash flow performs better
The company's management expense rate and R&D expense rate remain at a high level. In 2021, the company's sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios were 0.4%/6.1%/6.0%/0.7% respectively; in 2022Q1, the sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios were 0.4%/8.9%/6.5%/1.1%, respectively. The increase in management expense ratio is caused by the company's continuous expansion of its business scale and the increase in the number of management and administrative personnel and salary levels. The high R&D expense ratio is mainly due to the company's continued increase in R&D investment and strengthening technological reserves, laying a solid foundation for the continued growth of revenue.
The company has excellent cash flow and accounts receivable turnover continues to improve.
Company Net cash flow for operating activities increased from -293 million yuan in 2017 to 1.988 billion yuan in 2021, and the cash flow situation in 2020 and 2021 has improved significantly. Accounts receivable turnover days overall showed a downward trend, with 91.98 days in 2021, down 13.19 days from 2020, and 91.28 days from 2022Q1, down 0.70 days from 2021.
. Core highlights: Entering Apple's supply chain to accelerate domestic substitution, selecting household storage track to achieve differentiated competition Comparing the company and consumer battery cell leader ATL, we found that the main gap lies in revenue scale, profitability, and product performance are close.
- Revenue scale: In 2021, the company's revenue was about 22% of the leading ATL. From 2017 to 2021, the company's consumer battery cell operating income increased from 28 to 9.9 billion yuan, and ATL increased from 215 to 44.8 billion yuan, and the company was 13% and 22% of ATL.
- Profitability: In 2021, the company's operating profit margin was 2.7pct lower than ATL, while in 2020, the gap has narrowed. In 2021, ATL/Zhuhai Guanyu's operating profit margins were 14.8%/12.1% respectively. Affected by the price increase of raw materials such as lithium cobalt oxide, Zhuhai Guanyu's operating profit margin in 2021 decreased by 3.6pct compared with 2020, while ATL decreased by 8.3pct, indicating that Zhuhai Guanyu's cost control capabilities are relatively strong. (Note: To ensure comparable, the battery cells in Zhuhai Guanyu PACK products are also included. For the calculated value, the comparable company is also calculated value)
- Product performance: The company's product has excellent comprehensive performance, and multiple parameters can be compared with ATL. The main indicators for measuring the advanced technology and product in the field of polymer soft-pack lithium batteries are energy density, charging rate, safety and cycle life.
Take laptop batteries as an example. Zhuhai Guanyu's energy density is 700-800Wh/L, and ATL is generally above 700Wh/L; its cycle life is 800-1200 times, and ATL is generally above 800 times; its charging rate can reach 2C and 3C, while the maximum ATL is 2C. All parameters of tablet and mobile phone batteries are also close to ATL, and their product performance and performance are firmly at the forefront of the industry.
As the company breaks through the stacking process and enters the supply chains of Apple and Samsung, we expect the revenue gap between the company and ATL is expected to narrow further. The company has a high share in the laptop market and a low mobile phone market, so we believe that the breakthrough in revenue growth is in the mobile phone market. In 21 years, the top five mobile phone manufacturers in the world are Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, VIVO, and OPPO. The company's current customers include Xiaomi and OPPO, and the future major breakthroughs are Samsung and Apple.
company convertible bond fundraising project [Polymer lithium-ion battery laminate production line construction project], we expect it to be Apple's supporting production line, the reason is:
- battery cell manufacturing process is divided into winding and lamination. The main difference between the lamination process and the winding process is that after the pole sheet is sliced, the pole sheet is punched into small pieces of corresponding size and shape by die-cutting, and the battery cells are stacked into stacked cores of a certain thickness according to the positive and negative electrode sheets, and the positive and negative electrode sheets are separated by a separator.
- Apple smartphone adopts the stacking process. Because of its high charging rate, high energy density, thinning and distinctive characteristics, laminated technology batteries have attracted close attention from downstream consumer electronics manufacturers, especially high-end smartphone manufacturers. Apple has applied laminated technology batteries in its smartphone products.
- has become a qualified supplier of a downstream leading terminal manufacturer, and the lamination process production line of this fundraising project has been jointly planned by both parties and has now entered the development stage of mass production project. After the project reaches full production, it will add 36 million stacked lithium-ion cell production capacity per year and revenue of 1.58 billion yuan.
The power market enters from start to stop, which is a wise move to weigh one's own advantages and disadvantages.
- Automobile start-stop battery market prospects are broad. As the carbon emission standards of automobiles in various countries become stricter, the start-stop system that can effectively save fuel consumption has gradually become the standard configuration of passenger vehicles.According to a report previously released by international market research firm Technavio, the global start-stop battery market size is expected to grow by US$7.85 billion (about RMB 53.1 billion) from 2020 to 2024, with a compound growth rate of 22%.
- The power market is fiercely competitive. As a latecomer, the company can focus on first-tier car companies from the start and stop, which is conducive to the accumulation of company reputation and customer recognition, and create good conditions for the company to extend its pure electric vehicle battery business.
- According to the company's announcement, it is expected that 2.5GWh production capacity of Zhejiang Jiaxing is put into production in May this year. According to this, the company's existing power production capacity reaches 3GWh. In addition, Zhejiang 10GWh production line is planned, mainly equipped with energy storage batteries.
Energy storage market is preferred for the household storage track of the blue ocean market, and is expected to make rapid profits.
The company said that current energy storage is mainly home energy storage batteries and communication energy storage batteries, and hopes to extend to power energy storage batteries in the future. In order to better seize the market opportunities of power energy storage batteries, the company has planned an annual production 15GWh production line in Chongqing, mainly supporting energy storage batteries.
Management is keen forward-looking in grasping market direction and judging technical routes.
has developed earlier in the field of soft-pack polymer batteries in China. Compared with cylindrical batteries and square batteries, the gap with foreign companies is small. Whether in terms of technology or market share, domestic high-quality companies have the ability to catch up. Against this background, the company has clarified its technical route. Since its establishment in 2007, it has focused on the polymer soft-pack lithium battery business.
Before 2015, it can be said to be the rapid growth period of the consumer electronics market. Thanks to the accelerated launch of the terminal application market, the company has achieved rapid development with its own strength and has become the top 5 polymer lithium battery suppliers in the world in 2015.
Company has a relatively accurate grasp of the future development needs of the market.
After 2015, the growth rate of the consumer electronics market has slowed down significantly and gradually entered a mature stage. Although the growth rate of consumer lithium battery market is not as fast as that of power batteries, driven by factors such as the thinning of digital products, the gradual replacement of square and cylindrical lithium batteries, and the development of downstream emerging application markets, the growth of polymer lithium battery market is still expected. Therefore, the company expands production every year and set up Chongqing Guanyu in 2018 to establish a new consumer battery production base.
The overall pace of the company is stable, and its development strategy is in line with the company's reality. It believes that the height of technical strength determines the future market structure.
Starting from 2019, power batteries have grown rapidly and the prospects for energy storage are highly optimistic. Guanyu continues to consolidate and develop advantageous areas while preparing in emerging areas. In 2019, the company established Guanyu Power Battery, laid out its power battery business, accelerated R&D, and made sufficient reserves in technology. In 2021, the company went public and used 3.25 billion yuan of raised funds to be used for the construction of Zhuhai polymer lithium battery production base, Chongqing lithium battery cell packaging production line project, R&D center upgrade construction project and supplementary working capital, and the R&D expansion is carried out in an orderly manner.
The company's core technical team is highly qualified.
Lithium battery manufacturing is a technology-intensive industry, and core technical personnel and core technologies are crucial to the company's development. The company has formed a professional technical research and development team with competitive, rich industry experience and mastering the core technology of lithium batteries. Currently, the company has 12 core technical personnel. Mr. Xu Yanming, directors of
- , Mr. Fu Xiaohu and Mr. Li Junyi are not only the company's core managers, but also the company's core technical personnel. They have been engaged in the lithium battery industry for more than 20 years, have a deep understanding of the industry and a broad vision, and are keen and forward-looking in market development trends and product technology directions, making great contributions to the company's new lithium battery products.There are 9 other core technical personnel of
- . They all have more than ten years of experience in lithium battery research and development and technical accumulation, and have rich work experience. Most of them have worked in the R&D departments of well-known battery companies such as BIC Battery, ATL, and CATL. Some have also worked in Samsung SDI. Some have worked in customer companies such as Lenovo. They have a deep background and have a deep understanding of the design and R&D of various fields of lithium battery, which has brought many contributions to the company's product technology progress and innovation.
The company attaches importance to R&D investment, and pays attention to talent introduction and talent team building.
The company's R&D personnel increased from 593 in 2017 to 2343 in Q1 2022, with R&D personnel accounting for 14.2%.
Company's R&D expenses are also increasing, and the R&D expense rate is on the rise. In Q1 2022, the R&D expense rate was 6.5%, which is maintained at a high level, reflecting the company's high attention to technological innovation.
From the patent situation, as of July 2022, Guanyu owned 1,150 authorized patents, with ATL of 2,881, 2.5 times that of Guanyu. Liwei, a subsidiary of Xinwangda , owned 402 patents, and Guanyu is 2.9 times that of Guanyu. In terms of the number of R&D personnel, the number of R&D personnel disclosed by ATL's official website is 1,500, Liwei has 286, and Guanyu has reached 2,343. The huge R&D team is the solid backing for the company to achieve long-term development.
Company insists on independent research and development and technological innovation, and has already reserved 17 major core technologies.
Company has fully mastered the relevant core technologies of consumer lithium batteries, such as high-temperature battery technology, digital battery electrolyte technology, high-energy density battery key materials application technology, fast-charging battery key materials application technology, high-safe battery key materials application technology, etc.
In the field of power lithium batteries, the company has mastered solid-state metal lithium battery technology, power battery electrolyte technology, fast charging and high-power technology for industrial drones, automotive 7000W/Kg high-power technology, and 12V lithium iron phosphate start-off battery cell technology.
company has achieved many technological breakthroughs in key indicators such as battery energy density, charging rate, safety and cycle life, and has achieved rich technical results. Related application products are quite competitive in the market.
, profit forecast and valuation .1 Profit forecast
We expect the company to achieve revenue of 123/156/18.9 billion yuan in 22-24, a year-on-year increase of 19%/27%/21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23/127/151 billion yuan, a year-on-year -76%/+450%/+19%.
Consumer Business: We expect consumer revenue to reach 117/142/15.9 billion yuan in 22-24. The core assumptions are as follows:
- Sales: We expect the company's consumer battery cell sales in 22-24 to be 37/44/530 million respectively. According to the company's effective production capacity and downstream consumer electronics market forecasts. Among them, 36 million and 81 million Apples were shipped in 23 and 24 years.
- unit price: the unit price in 21 is 26.4 yuan/piece. Considering that the price increase of battery cell companies in 222 years is generally increased, we expect the price increase to be between 20% and 31.7 yuan/piece, and partially declined in 23 years. In addition, Apple shipments have been shipped in 23 years, and we expect the unit price to be 44 yuan/only (reversely based on the convertible bond reply letter revenue and quantity).
Power & Energy Storage Business: We expect Power & Energy Storage to achieve revenue of 250 million yuan/100 million yuan in 22-24. The core assumptions are as follows:
- Revenue: The company's power battery business is currently in the starting period and has not contributed effective performance. It is expected that revenue in 2022 will be 250 million yuan. As the production capacity is gradually released, orders such as automobile start-stop and household storage business will gradually increase in volume, and it is expected to achieve revenue of 1.0 billion yuan in 23 years, of which 350 million yuan of start-stop and household storage will be 650 million yuan.
- gross profit margin: Considering the high pressure on raw materials + small quantity in 22 years, the gross profit margin is expected to be -45%. In 23 years, considering the decline in raw material prices and the increase in household reserves, the gross profit margin is expected to increase to 8%.
.2 Valuation
We selected CATL, 00 Lithium Energy , Xinwangda, and Penghui Energy as comparable companies. Considering that the company's consumer battery business still has room for growth, the power energy storage business has gradually increased in volume and accelerated growth, giving the company 23 years of 35XPE, with a target price of 39.6 yuan.
, risk warning downstream market demand is lower than expected: If the consumer electronics market prosperity does not improve, the company's consumer battery cell sales will be lower than expected.
Capacity construction is lower than expected: If the company's capacity release rate does not meet expectations, it will affect product sales and revenue growth.
The risk of continued loss of power and energy storage battery businesses: Currently, the company's power battery business is still in the starting period. If the volume is slower, there is still a risk of continued loss.
Raw material price fluctuation risk: company direct materials account for a large proportion of cost, and price fluctuations in raw materials such as lithium cobalt oxide will affect the company's performance.
share price fluctuation risk: company circulating market value is small, its stock price fluctuates greatly in the past six months, and the company's price-earnings ratio is higher than the industry's price-earnings ratio level, and the stock price has fluctuated violently recently.
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