At 6 a.m. local time on October 8, local time, the Crimea Cross-Sea Bridge, the longest bridge in Europe, exploded. Crimea Bridge consists of a road bridge and a railway bridge. The explosion caused the road bridge to break into several pieces and also ignited an oil tank train on the railway bridge next to it.
On October 8, 2022, Crimea, a car bomb triggered a fire on the Crimea cross-sea bridge connecting Crimea and Russia. Pictures in this article People's Vision
For several months, Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly made harsh words about the Crimea Bridge. Ukraine threatened that the bridge bombing plan had been prepared long ago, while Russia threatened that the bridge bombing responded to Ukraine with a "doomsday trial". Today, the boots finally landed.
Although Pravda quoted sources on October 8 as saying that the destruction of the Crimean Bridge was a "special operation" of the Ukrainian National Security Agency, the Ukrainian National Security Agency did not comment on it. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian National Security Agency only said that it would comment on the role of the Ukrainian National Security Agency or any Ukrainian state agency in the sabotage incident on the Crimea Bridge after Ukrainian final victory.
So, what exactly happened on the Crimea Bridge?
At present, there are many different opinions on truck explosions, train explosions, missiles, attacks, drone strikes, terrorist attacks, and many different opinions. All signs show that this is likely to be a carefully planned and cautious attack. Truck attacks are the most likely, followed by missile attacks.
In the first case, the source of the explosion is a truck, which is loaded with not civilian oil, but solid explosives. The flames do not continue to burn and are quickly blown away by strong winds. On the other hand, after the oil tank train next to it was ignited, the oil burned for a long time. The timing of the truck explosion is chosen very accurately, and it happens when the train and the car meet, which obviously has sufficient intelligence support and advance preparation. At present, the best result for Ukraine is that the bridge is closed inexplicably due to non-military reasons, which can prevent Russia from treating Ukraine as an attacker and then retaliating. The Russian Counter-Terrorism Commission did not immediately blame Ukraine for the bridge explosion on the 8th, and no organizations or individuals have officially declared responsibility for the explosion. Russian President Putin has ordered the establishment of a government committee to investigate the cause of the incident.
Local time on October 8, 2022, Crimea, fuel tanks on the Crimea Bridge connecting the Russian mainland and Crimean Peninsula were burned.
But there are doubts about the truck explosion. First, the road bridge has at least three bridge decks broken and several piers are separated. How can a truck do it? Second, if it is a truck explosion, it is a suicide attack, which is more like an extremist organizational method, mainly because of the limited capabilities and resources of these organizations. For Ukrainian side, adopting such inhuman attacks will lead the Ukrainian government to injustice and lead to the West's doubts about the Ukrainian government. More importantly, the truck involved happened to be coming from the Taman Peninsula, which is located in Russia. The above fogs make people think a lot.
The second case is that the source of the explosion is precise guided weapon , such as the Himas' ultra-far warhead or missile. Several warheads hit different bridge segments at the same time. Judging from the crime scene, this requires a hit accuracy of within two meters, and the angle of attack must be very large, almost vertically to blow up several bridge decks without hurting the railway bridge next to it. Currently, the Himas rocket launcher equipped by the Ukrainian army is equipped with an ordinary warhead with a range of only about 80 kilometers. The position closest to the Crimea Bridge is also more than 200 kilometers. The Himas can also be equipped with ATACMS Army tactical missiles with long range and huge lethality, but the United States has not provided them to the Ukrainian army with regard to the Russian reaction, and the other hand, the tactical missile is not accurate enough.
"Ukrainian ballistic missile attack" also has doubts. The 9K79 dot ballistic missile equipped by Ukrainian is a product of the nuclear arms race in the context of the Cold War era. It has a range that can be achieved when attacking targets like the Crimea Bridge, but its accuracy is insufficient, and its circular probability error is about 100 meters. The latest Thunder 2 tactical ballistic missile developed by Ukraine has a range of 5 meters and a maximum hit accuracy.However, this kind of missile has not yet experienced actual combat. To complete this battle, it is still necessary to cooperate in NATO in complex terms in reconnaissance and electronic warfare . If it is indeed done by the Thunder 2 missile, it means that the Ukrainian army has deeply integrated with NATO's command, air situation and control systems. Moreover, since you have such accurate strike capabilities, why only one-way lanes are interrupted and why don’t you directly knock down the railway bridge?
The third situation is precisely strike by drones. This possibility is the smallest, because the flight distance of the hidden route may reach 300-400 kilometers, which requires large drones. In areas where Russia is closely guarding, its battlefield survivability is the worst. First of all, Ukraine does not have a relatively reliable large drone, and the ammunition carried by the drone is not so powerful.
As for why the railway bridge is only affected but not broken? Because the explosion point is on the highway bridge, the construction strength of the railway bridge itself is higher, and there is also an heavy-duty train on the bridge, which enhances the stability of the bridge.
( Li Hao , professor at the School of International Relations, Sichuan University, doctoral supervisor, deputy director of the Western Frontier Center)
