As we all know, my country's retail price limit for refined oil has achieved 18 rounds of price adjustments since this year, and the overall situation is "11 rises, 7 falls, 0 stranded". After the rise and fall of , the cumulative increase in gasoline and diesel prices exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton, and the overall oil price maintained a situation of "more rises, less falls." Therefore, the prices of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel in all parts of the country are still at a relatively high level. The cost of car owners filling a box of 50L gasoline is more than 50 yuan more expensive than on January 1, 2022. The larger the gas tank capacity of the car, the higher the overall refueling cost.
Of course, as time goes by, the 19th round of domestic refined oil price adjustment will start at 24:00 on October 10. As the first price adjustment after the National Day holiday, many people have paid great attention to this oil price adjustment. However, according to the changes in international market news in recent times, it is expected that domestic refined oil price adjustment will be stranded for the first time this year, which is expected to break the new record of zero stranding. So, what's going on?
First of all, during the National Day holiday, as the domestic oil price forecast trend stopped updating, countless people turned their attention to the international crude oil futures in overseas markets. During the National Day holiday, as the market expectations for OPEC+ production cuts gradually heated up, it finally became a foregone conclusion and the specific time was determined to be October 5. Therefore, the 33rd Ministerial Meeting of the OPEC+ Cooperation Mechanism was held on Vienna on on has become a focus of attention for countless people. Affected by the production cut measures of OPEC+ (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), international oil prices have fluctuated and rose all the way. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures both rose sharply, not only boosting market confidence, but also swept away the previous decline.
In addition, with the end of the OPEC+ meeting, the delegates said that OPEC+ agreed to start reducing production by 2 million barrels per day in November, and international oil prices achieved "three consecutive increases", and crude oil futures prices continued to rise in the later period. Therefore, as of the 7th, the international crude oil futures prices achieved "five consecutive increases", with a cumulative increase of more than 16%, setting the largest single-week increase in three months. WTI crude oil rose from the original position below US$80/barrel to above US$90/barrel, with a cumulative increase of 16.5%. Brent crude oil futures also easily increased by more than 10%, and quotation per barrel of was close to US$100.
Details, international oil prices rose sharply again on October 7. As of the closing of the trading day (7th), the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in November rose by US$4.19, closing at US$92.64 per barrel, an increase of 4.74%; the price of Brent crude oil futures delivered in December rose by US$3.50, closing at US$97.92 per barrel, an increase of 3.71%.
Because international oil prices have achieved "five consecutive increases" and the overall cumulative increase has expanded to more than 16%, the largest single-week increase in the next three months, so the crude oil change rate in the 8th working day of my country's refined oil pricing cycle has achieved "from negative to positive", with the specific data reaching 0.11%. The cumulative increase in oil price forecast is lower than the red line of the price adjustment, so oil prices are expected to be stranded. In addition, it is now getting closer to the price adjustment window at 24:00 on the 10th, so it is expected that domestic refined oil price adjustment is expected to be stranded for the first time this year. At that time, gasoline and diesel prices will show a pattern of "11 rises, 7 falls, 1 stranded", which also means that the hope of domestic refined oil price reduction will be completely shattered the night after tomorrow.
On October 7, Haitham al-Ghais, Secretary-General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said in an interview that the production cuts achieved by OPEC+ oil-producing countries will help them release more supplies in the event of a crisis. Saudi Arabia Energy Minister previously stated that OPEC+ organization of production cuts is a necessary measure to deal with the sharp rate hikes in many European and American countries and the weak global economy. Therefore, international oil prices have been fluctuating and rising all the way, which is basically in line with OPEC+'s expectations of production cuts, that is, this is the result they hope to see.
To sum up, international oil prices have now achieved "five consecutive increases", which has driven a sharp decline in my country's oil price forecast, and has now entered a stranded range. However, the recent employment data of US is good, and the US dollar has strengthened again. Therefore, it is expected that domestic refined oil price adjustment will be stranded for the first time this year.
