During this long holiday, the trend of US stock can be said to be the most popular.
started a good start on the first day of October, and then rose with a medium-positive line the next day, which caused A shares investors to have a good performance in the external trend, adding to the opening of after the A-share , which may lead to the expectation of "thousands of stocks hit the daily limit".
But the good times didn't last long. On just one trading day on Friday, the US stock market encountered "Black Friday". Nasdaq fell 3.80%, the Dow Jones fell 2.11%, and the S&P 500 index fell 2.80%. The three major indexes exceeded 2% downside space at the same time. Nasdaq almost swallowed up the upside during the festival.
is approaching the opening of A-shares, and the US stock market collapses. Is the reason for A-shares?
Most investors, when discussing the sharp drop in the US stock market, talked about the rise of US stocks that has stopped because A-shares are approaching the opening.
In fact, the rise and fall of the global financial market is not the direction that the A-share market closure and opening are influencing the direction. The sharp drop in US stocks on Friday was because non-agricultural employment data was stronger than expected, curbing the expectation of the Fed's rate hike slowdown, risky assets were sold, and the US dollar index soared again.
September non-agricultural data chart
Beijing time, at 20:30 on the evening of October 7, the US non-agricultural employment data was implemented, with a market forecast value of 250,000 and an actual announced value of 263,000. The predicted value of the unemployment rate data is 3.70%, and the actual announced value is 3.5%. The average number of new non-agricultural employment from January to September has reached 420,000.
data exceeded market expectations, suggesting that the US labor market is still strong at the moment. U.S. stocks rose on Monday and Tuesday, and were in vain in the decline on Thursday and Friday.
. During the A-share Festival, the market was closed for five trading days. The focus of investors is naturally mainly on the peripheral stock market. I believe that most investors have experienced a process from joy to sorrow because of the extreme trend of US stocks.
Obviously, the strength and weakness of the US stock market in a week is due to the released economic data, which has had an impact on the short-term trend of US stocks. It is not that A-shares have influenced the rise and fall direction of US stocks, but that the US stock market itself has emerged from a flash in the pan after being impacted by economic data.
S&P 500 index
From the performance of the S&P 500 index, it can be seen that before the long holiday, the S&P 500 index broke the June low, while both Nasdaq and Dow Jones both showed new lows this year.
Although Chinese and US stocks have experienced a brief rise in the quarter, after the pullback on Thursday and Friday, the three major indexes such as the S&P 500 were once again hovering in the previous lows, suggesting that the market's rise is quite weak, and the market sentiment is very susceptible to news and selling waves.
Next week Federal releases the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting. A lot of news is coming. As the interest rate meeting in the November Fed meeting approaches, it still suppresses the rise of US stocks.
Trend Chart
Can the market get a good start?
The author predicts that given the performance of US stocks, A-share market may usher in a more extreme trend on Monday, which will have a great test for 3,000 points. It is not ruled out that the index will repeat in integer digits.
However, after the closing, the market is likely to have a good start, with the rise of the index and the trend of differentiation of individual stocks has begun.
Rekind the expectation of the Federal Reserve's radical hike rate hit due to the new non-farm employment data. The rise in the US stock market during the holiday is mainly due to investors' expectations of the Federal Reserve, and there is an expectation of adjustment in monetary policy in November.
After the non-agricultural data was released, the US dollar index rose, the non-US currency rose and fell back to . The expectation of another interest rate hike of 75 basis points in November heated up, and the US stock market finally gave up most of the gains. Obviously, there may be a similar operating process to the opening of A-shares after the holiday, and they will move out of a high or a volatile pattern to close red.
Market resistance and support
A shares are now entering the value range
At the end of September, the average daily turnover of A shares has dropped to less than 650 billion yuan now, and the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in September continued to hit a new low this year.Although the market trading is deserted, the current average P/E ratio of the market is around 12.45 times, entering the value range.
If the decline of this round is an adjustment in the rise of 2440.91 points, then the market's decline reversal point is above 2800 points.
From the perspective of value, in this round, the three major indexes fell, most sectors fell by more than 10%, and even the semiconductor, Internet, and electrical instrument sectors fell by more than 30%, releasing more bubbles.
has many sectors in the adjustment, with reasonable valuations and has returned to a historically low level. It is obvious that A-shares have entered the value investment range at present, containing medium and long-term investment opportunities.
Comprehensive analysis: The non-agricultural data has been beautiful, which has ignited the Federal Reserve's radical interest rate hike expectations . The US dollar index rose sharply. After the rebound, the US stock market once again gave up more upward trends, which increased concerns about the trend of A-shares after the holiday. However, the test of 3,000 points is approaching, and the index cannot be ruled out to enter an extreme trend again in the short term, but the market is already in a range suitable for medium- and long-term investment.
The market analysis involved in this article is for reference only and is not used as an investment basis. The stock market is risky, so be cautious when investing!
