htmlOn May 17, National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April 2021. Among the 70 cities across the country, 62 cities rose month-on-month in April, while Chongqing's highest increase was 1.4% month-on-month increase compared with March. In terms of second-hand housing, the increase has narrowed slightly, but overall it is still rising.
In short, new and second-hand houses are rising, but the difference between more and less.
01 The overall increase
This year's real estate market regulation is a bit too much. Before
, Shenzhen issued a guide price for second-hand housing, forcibly reducing market popularity. After
, Beijing centralized land supply implemented the "real estate linkage, one policy for each place", restricting the auction of each plot, ensuring the low premium rate of land auctions.
The regulation of other hot cities is uninterrupted. Guangzhou and Shanghai strictly investigate business loans, Hangzhou and Chengdu include foreclosure houses in the purchase restriction camp, and Hefei limits talent housing purchases to under 35 years old, and continuously increases the housing market.
However, under such heavy pressure, the development momentum of the real estate market is still much stronger than expected. On May 17, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April 2021. The month-on-month increase in the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in various tier cities expanded slightly, and the month-on-month increase in second-hand housing was not much.
In a word, rose across the board.
Let’s first look at 4 first-tier cities. In recent times, these cities have been simply "living targets" and are also "key objects" in real estate market regulation. However, judging from the housing price trend, regulation may not be satisfactory. The growth rate of new houses in the four first-tier cities is still the same, but the growth rate of second-hand houses has slowed down slightly.
Take new houses as an example. The sales prices of newly built commercial housing in four first-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, of which Guangzhou led the first-tier city with 1.1%; and in terms of second-hand housing, the sales prices of second-hand housing in four first-tier cities rose by 0.8% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou rose by 1.2%, 0.9% and 1.2% respectively, while Shenzhen remained the same.
The "stop rise" of Shenzhen's real estate market is inseparable from the recent upgrade of Shenzhen's regulation, strict investigation of violations, and even raising interest rates. Before the Spring Festival this year, Shenzhen officially issued a guide price for second-hand housing and required banks to issue mortgages according to the guide price. It is worth noting that the guide price in popular areas is generally lower than the transaction price.
This practice is equivalent to raising the down payment ratio to popular areas in disguise, increasing the pressure on home buyers to get on the bus. In addition, Shenzhen has recently raised mortgage interest rates, which has further cooled down the real estate market.
Shenzhen has barely stopped the rise of second-hand housing under high pressure. From the big data, the popularity of the real estate market has long spread from first-tier cities to second- and third-tier cities - the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 131 second-tier cities rose by 0.6% and 0.5% month-on-month, respectively, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in 135 third-tier cities rose by 0.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the sales prices of second-hand housing increased by 0.3% month-on-month, an increase of the same as last month.
The rise in second-hand housing in hot cities is still large, and it is not completely restricted by regulation, and there is even a trend of increasing more and more control. Areas with large increases are mainly concentrated in hot cities, third- and fourth-tier cities in urban circles, and cities with lagging shantytown renovation.
Chief researcher of Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center analyzed that on the one hand, this phenomenon was caused by a significant increase in the previous period, and on the other hand, it also reflects the difficulty of regulatory policies to focus on second-hand housing.In addition, the pressure on the rise in second-hand housing prices in hot cities is still relatively high, and the previous restricted sales policy in some hot cities has expired. Since the second half of last year, the market has been hot, new house inventory is low, and demand has turned to the second-hand housing market, resulting in the rising price rotation of new and second-hand housing prices.
02 The popularity of land auctions has returned
The current situation is a bit similar to 2016.
Let’s first review the situation in 2016. The real estate market in 2016 was also the beginning of regulation. However, the wait-and-see sentiment did not last long, and the rhythm was disrupted by the subsequent land beat. With the emergence of the "land kings" in various places, the originally stable situation began to reverse, and the real estate market returned to madness.
Recently, as the curtain of concentrated land auctions gradually opened, we seem to see the same factor -
html On April 26, the Nansha Qingsheng Hub plot, one of the core areas of the Guangzhou Greater Bay Area, was finally won by China Merchants for a total price of 4.131 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 35.84%;
htt ml9htmlOn April 28, Poly won 168 mu of pure residential land in the C standard area of Liangjiang New District, Chongqing for 2.5 billion yuan, with a floor price of 15,711 yuan/㎡, with a premium rate of 83.2%;
html On May 13, Shenzhen Longguang Real Estate Co., Ltd. won the Xili Street plot in Nanshan District for a total price of 6.9 billion yuan, with a floor price of 23,650 yuan/㎡, with a premium rate of 44.96%.
Behind the high premium, the heat of the real estate market is unrest. The land market in Chongqing, Hangzhou, , Wuxi, and other places has unprecedented popularity. In the first round of centralized land supply that just ended, the premium rate of more than 70% of the land in Hangzhou reached its peak, while the premium rate of nearly half of Chongqing's land plots exceeded 50%.
The popularity of the real estate market is still continuing, and at the same time, regulation is also pressing step by step. On May 13, Chengdu Real Estate Brokerage Association issued the "Notice on Further Standardizing the Release of Second-hand Housing Listing Prices in Our City" (hereinafter referred to as "Notice") . The text mentioned that the listing price of second-hand housing should be further standardized and the inflated price listings should be removed from the shelves.
After the policy was released, someone went to Beike House Search to check the high-priced areas in Chengdu, and found that the listings for sale were significantly reduced. Among the property information displayed, only the sales price information of underground parking spaces is left, and the remaining property information is blank. High-priced real estate projects such as Financial City, Panchenggang , and Dayuan sector are gradually disappearing online.
This move is really sudden. In combination with the new real estate policy previously mentioned in Chengdu on March 22 that a mechanism for publishing second-hand housing transaction price will be established, and many people regard it as a "precursor" for Chengdu to launch the guide price of second-hand housing.
In the previous 322 new policy, Chengdu clearly mentioned that -
First, strengthen the control of second-hand housing listing prices, requiring brokerage agencies not to accept and publish listing prices that are significantly higher than the reasonable transaction prices of the property they are located in. Social network information platforms must Cooperate with technical control;
is to focus on sorting out the actual transaction prices of second-hand housing in hot areas and hot real estate projects in advance, and gradually form regional grid-based reference prices of second-hand housing, and regularly publish them on official websites, WeChat public accounts and Chengdu housing rental transaction service platform to guide the purchase and sale of second-hand housing market and strengthen second-hand housing transaction management.
Nowadays, Chengdu’s practice of removing high-priced housing information is in line with the article “strengthening the control of second-hand housing listing prices”. However, it is estimated that there will be some time to leave when the second-hand housing guide price is implemented.
After all, in cities such as Hangzhou and Hefei, they had previously removed overpriced housing prices due to the overheating of second-hand housing - Hangzhou requires properties with a price of 15% higher than the market price, and landlords need to sign a commitment letter; Hefei also requires many intermediary agencies to remove properties with a unit price of more than 50,000 yuan/㎡.
03 Conclusion
House prices, how much room for growth is there?
For this question, we may be able to reverse the data from another set of data. Previously, the Central Bank of released the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2020", which pointed out that my country's residential debt has very limited room for continued expansion, and we must be highly wary of the overdraft effect and potential risks of the rapid rise of residents' leverage ratio. At the same time, to a certain extent, the housing price-to-income ratio, which is separated from the disposable income of urban residents, has also increased the pressure on the younger generation.
Simply put, the debt ratio of residents no longer allows housing prices to continue to rise sharply.
Therefore, we can also see that the senior management has expressed their opinions on the real estate market recently. Recently, the Ministry of Finance, the Budget Working Committee of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the State Administration of Taxation held a symposium on the pilot work of real estate tax reform, which aroused the market's concern about the possible legislation and promulgation of real estate tax.
Make housing "definitionized" may be the general direction in the future!
