Sun Tzu's Art of War first article talks about the issue of war. Sun Tzu said: War is a major event of the country. It is a place of life and death, and the way of survival and death. It must be observed. Sun Tzu's words put forward the idea of "be careful in fighting". War is a major event of a country and is related to life and death, so it is necessary to be "be cautious in fighting". Personally understand that grandson’s “cautious battle” idea includes three parts: First, it is not easy to fight and does not fight unprepared battles. The second is to not avoid war, not be afraid of war, and face the dangers of war bravely. Third, first, be invincible, wait for the opportunity to win, and seek complete victory.
uses the idea of "cautious war" to analyze the Ukrainian War, and Russia treats the Ukrainian War with "cautious war". The Ukrainian crisis broke out in 2014, and then Russia won Crimea , but it has been in a state of patience. For Russia, it faces the Ukrainian crisis and the Syrian crisis at the same time. In these two wars, Russia's measure is to participate in the Syrian war and ease the Ukrainian crisis. So after the Minsk Agreement , Russia sent troops to Syria in September 2015 to start war with the US military in Syria. In the end, Russia supported the Syrian government to turn the defeat into victory, which also forced the United States to suffer a crushing defeat in Syria after the Cold War. It had to change its words and say that it would not require the Assad regime to step down. This is the first time that the United States suffered from hegemony expansion after the Cold War.
I have always said that it is not easy for Putin to make this decision. is a five factor that prompted him to make this decision.
1 is the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan , marking the complete failure of the US expansion strategy after the Cold War.
The second is the victory of the Syrian War. Russia has a clear understanding of the bottom of the US military in the military.
third is Belarus game, Russia won, Belarus avoided the color revolution and coup crisis, and joined the Russian Union.
Fourth, the United States listed China as its opponent, and failed to launch a trade war against China. It is an inevitable trend that China-US relations will continue to deteriorate, and China may be ready to liberate Taiwan at all times, causing the United States to fall into a two-line battle.
5: China-Russia relations have strong complementarity, and have good strategic cooperation in Syria, Iran and Northeast Asia security. China and Russia are in partnership but not alliance, and have high mutual trust. China and Russia are confident to hand over their backs to each other. Russia can concentrate its efforts to resolve the US hegemony in Europe.
Ukrainian war, I have been using three wars as the strategic coordinates for observation.
1 is Korean War . During the Korean War, Chinese People's Volunteer Army faced the 16-nation coalition led by the United States, Chinese Army fought with the three armies of the United States' navy, army and air force, and faced the deterrence of the United States' nuclear weapon . Victory was hard-won. In the Ukrainian War, Russia does not have any fear of US nuclear weapons, but Russia's sea, land and air to fight Ukraine's army supported by the United States and NATO, and its chances of victory are greater.
The second is the Syrian War. In the Syrian War, the US and Russian troops were equally at war. The US military beheaded Russia's highest commander in Syria. The Russian army also often bombed important US military targets in Syria. Russia is better than Syria in Ukraine's combat environment and supplies, so Russia's victory in Ukraine is inevitable.
The third is the Kosovo War. The main purpose of the United States' war on the Kosovo War is to expand NATO eastward and include Eastern Europe within the Warsaw Pact range under NATO control. Yugoslavia is pro-Russia, so it became the target of dismemberment. Ukraine is an anti-Russian country and is naturally listed as its first target by Russia. Russia's victory in Ukraine determines the direction of Europe's hegemony and even determines the fate and future of NATO.
Ukrainian war, Russia cannot lose, the United States cannot afford to lose.
Russia cannot lose the Ukrainian war. It can be said that Putin made up his mind to launch a special military operation in Ukraine, and he was gambled with his political life and national destiny.If Russia loses, NATO will inevitably expand eastward to Ukraine, and various political forces in Russia will inevitably blame Putin. Russia has suffered major setbacks internationally and will also face serious political crises at home.
The United States can't afford to lose in the Ukrainian War. If the United States loses, Russia completely controls Ukraine, and Ukraine becomes a pro-Russian country, then who dares to hope for US protection? In the current Ukrainian war, the United States almost protected and supported Ukraine as a NATO country. The United States organized more than 40 countries to support Ukraine. If it were not NATO countries, would Ukraine have such treatment? The reason why we do not recognize Ukraine as a NATO country is just a political excuse for the United States to advance or retreat. Therefore, if the United States loses in the Ukrainian War, NATO will inevitably disintegrate.
The United States cannot afford to lose, so the United States has begun to support Ukraine in its attack on Russia's oil and gas pipelines and Crimea Bridge . Conversely, Russia will inevitably increase its crackdown on Ukraine's civilian facilities, so that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will become even more impossible, and the losses of both sides will continue to increase.
For Russia, if you can only win in the Ukrainian war, you must be prepared for a protracted war. In addition, Putin signed a partial mobilization order to increase troops by 300,000, which shows that Russia has estimated the plan for the United States and NATO to participate in the war. The pinnacle of the Korean War is Shangganling Battle . After the Shangganling Battle, the US military began to make decisions on negotiations. When was the culmination of war in Ukraine? We continue to observe this.
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