Previously, industry chain people revealed to the media that the overall production of Kirin 9000 chips is about 10 million pieces, which can support the sales of Huawei's high-end flagship mobile phones for half a year. Later, news came out of the news: Huawei has notified the supply chain to lower the shipment volume of Mate40 and cut orders by 30%.
Early, industry insiders estimated that the batch of chips shipped back by Huawei charter flights can ensure the sales of 8 million mobile phones in one quarter. The two channels of information can be verified by each other. What is the concept of
10 million pieces?
Referring to the previous shipments of Huawei flagships, the "half-year" estimate is probably too optimistic.
Huawei's classic flagship mobile phone life cycle sales review
Huawei's P20 series has been firmly established in the high-end market. The Mate20 series has begun to make rapid progress, and it took 4 and a half months to ship more than 10 million. The
P30 series was the last Huawei flagship to be produced and released normally before the ban. At that time, sales exceeded 2.1 million units in just 20 days of domestic sales, and global sales were expected to be 5 million units in the first month.
. After the ban started and the overseas market crashed sharply, the global shipment volume exceeded 7 million in just 60 days. By the end of the year, three months after the launch, the shipment volume exceeded 12 million, one month faster than the Mate20 series.
Once upon a time, Huawei was a veritable "recharge phone bills and get mobile phones". By 2019, the total shipments of Huawei's P series and Mate series exceeded 44 million. So how to calculate it, this mere 10 million chips support sales for half a year is very barely enough.
Mate40 series may be a dual-chip strategy
Huawei's next Mate40 series and P50 series are likely to adopt different SoC strategies on the standard version, Pro version, and Pro+ version : the Pro version is equipped with Kirin 9000/Kirin 9000E, while the standard version may adopt MediaTek's solution. Otherwise, the full Kirin core would not be available at all.
's most miserable thing is the Honor product line. The V series at the end of was originally planned to grab a wave of online markets before Snapdragon 875. At present, it seems that it is highly likely that it will not get Kirin 9000, which may continue Kirin 990, and may adopt MediaTek Dimensity. Relevant people in the industry have also predicted this:
is about to fuck Huawei, so how can I swallow this tone?
Yu Chengdong: You can also do ecology
Recently, Yu Chengdong talked about the issue of chip supply cuts again, saying, "You can also do ecology, do other things that can be done, such as screens, smart TVs, computers, etc., which are relatively large and have low requirements." ——Sincere words.
In fact, Huawei has slowed down its development pace of smartphones, and using the vacuum period to sink and polish the software and ecosystem will definitely be beneficial in the long run. EMUI has long criticized young users for its "poor design", "redundant functions", "inhumane enough", and "like to make choices for users". still has a lot of room for improvement in front of MIUI, flyme, etc.
In addition, overseas markets also need the prosperity of their own HMS ecosystem, otherwise they will not be able to return for a day if they fail. At present, it is said that HMS has connected to 81,000 applications, more than 1.6 million developers, and monthly active users have reached 30 million - However, killer applications supporting an ecosystem have not yet appeared. in other words, how to convince Android users to give up youtube to invest? To be honest, the fight for
hardware has reached its peak. From 2020 to the present, domestic mobile phone manufacturers have not only piled up materials but also piled up materials. No new application of for 5G has been launched or not. As the initiator and promoter of the next-generation communication technology, Huawei should also use this "retreatment period" to plan innovative applications that are enough to subvert the market like the first generation of iPhones.
Leica's moat will only protect you for three years, but the iOS ecosystem can allow iPhone 8 to be sold for another chip to 2020.
left for MOV, or a more depressed domestic market,
. Friends have set their sights on Huawei's 50% market share. Their wishes are beautiful, but the reality may not be as good as they wish. It is very likely that Huawei will be frustrated, which will lead to further depression in the domestic mobile phone market. In 2019, China's smartphone retail volume fell by nearly 10%, to -9.64% , which is a perfect sunset industry.
Picture/Anhu Protectorate Chief HTML
. Huawei will never be left alone in order to maintain its market share. The best strategy is to "build an ecosystem", which requires long-term investment, but is the most fundamental and powerful; the medium and inferior strategy also includes strengthening after-sales and ultra-low-price maintenance policies than any period, providing standards and testing for the official entry of the second-hand trading market, and even launching 8 color shells for broken users to replace them in one go... With Huawei's resilience, don't underestimate its will to survive.
Conclusion
A good news that is not good news is that the mobile phone industry is highly mature and is by no means a stage of seizing the market in the early stage. 's long-term brand appeal and user stickiness will be more capable of extending Huawei's life than Kirin 9000. Huawei has done a very good job at this point.
But this life-saving talisman can only last about 3 years, and 3 years cannot win a chip production line for Huawei that does not contain American technology, so "Huawei will definitely fall."
But there are still many things to do. A group of 200,000 elites gathered will find the greatest possibility of survival in this critical period.
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