This week, crude oil ended its four consecutive weekly declines, This week, crude oil showed a bottoming out and rebounding, and this week, crude oil did not show the maximum possible adjustment expectations of the lowest of around US$69, and from the perspective of the time cycle, it also rebounded a day ahead of schedule. We previously expected that we would continue to fluctuate on September 13 and bearishly until the 29th. and the final structure is No. 28, and there was a turning point, taking a strong rebound. From a fundamental perspective, the reasons for the bottoming out of crude oil this week are as follows:
1, 4 hurricane "Ian" landed on Florida on Wednesday afternoon, causing more than 1 million residents to cut off power, and Florida officials issued a stern safety warning. Major oil producers, including BP and Chevron , have shut down some offshore production in Gulf of Mexico this week.
2, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova 28 said that US President Biden should respond to whether the United States has implemented threats to the " Nord Stream-1" and " Nord Stream-2" natural gas pipelines.
3, , , USD softened from its recent rise on Wednesday. The Bank of England announced that it would buy British Treasury bonds, causing the US dollar to lose some momentum after hitting a 20-year high; and U.S. fuel inventory data showed a decline greater than expected, and consumer demand rebounded, supporting oil prices higher.
4, U.S. Secretary of State BlinkenSeptember 27 said on September 27 that Ukraine can use US weapons to attack newly joined Russia. In response, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on the 28th that the United States is increasingly involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, becoming increasingly close to becoming a party to the conflict, which is extremely dangerous.
The above factors are the key to the bottoming out of crude oil, and finally caused the crude oil to quickly rebound above US$80 after receiving support. However, the overall cycle is still short, so the probability of a second downward trend in the later period is still relatively high. We will observe further and analyze it later. Next week, you can consider the idea of further flat long plus short if the rebound occurs, because the shorts do not consider changing the general direction after it has not changed. Within the clear trend of trading, before the breakthrough is confirmed, you can only open a position and try and error to complete the layout, or reasonably withstand fluctuations and position to layout, otherwise it will easily cause major damage to !
On the message side, the probability of further reduction of the regular data API and EIA next week will be relatively high, especially the API data, because there is a large difference between the EIA data this week and it will definitely be fixed next week. , the probability of further reducing inventory as a whole is relatively high. If it is the overall situation, it is expected that the probability of delivery crude oil will be greater. In addition to regular data, we should also focus on , OPEC+ held a meeting to discuss oil production policies. And this is the core of the moment, because crude oil continues to fall recently, and there is a possibility of further production cuts!
OPEC+ meeting will be held on October 5, and the production target for November will be determined. Sources said Russia may propose at an OPEC+ meeting in October to cut the organization's daily output by 1 million barrels.
OPEC+ cut its October production target of 100,000 bpd in a previous meeting, demonstrating its willingness to deal with the changing oil market in a fast way. After the announcement, crude oil did not stop falling, but instead fell continuously, so the probability of a significant reduction in positions this time will increase significantly, at least exceeding 100,000 barrels.
From the current perspective, if wants to maintain Brent crude oil production above $90 per barrel, then OPEC will have to reduce production by 500,000-1 million barrels per day, and now Russia itself can also recommend a 1 million barrels per day reduction - as one of the two largest members of the OPEC+ group, the country's suggestions are very important. Therefore, it is not ruled out that it will be reduced by 1 million barrels in the later period. If it is the overall situation, it will cause a short-term surge of more than 5%! This must be paid attention to the event exhibition.
In addition, we must continue to pay attention to the development of the situation in Ukraine, because this is the biggest problem at the moment. If the situation continues to be bad, the future energy crisis will continue to rise, which is the biggest problem at the moment.
Technically, although crude oil bottomed out and rebounded this week, the overall bear trend remained unchanged. From the perspective of time, the last complex oscillation of this week is expected to continue to see the 4th, focusing on the turning point of the 4th, and then seeing around mid-October, the details will not be disclosed for the time being, and more of the strategies within the day shall be based on the policy. So if the turning point of No. 4 is the low point, the overall rebound will be ushered in a second. If it can break through $82.9 at this time, the overall structure will be idling. The C wave decline of crude oil, or the third wave decline, may be the end point, and then the fourth wave rebound will be ushered in. If it is the future I think the target can see more than $97 here the pressure .
