Tonight, two data that are very important to the entire global capital market will be released on the other side of the distant Atlantic Ocean. One is the unemployment rate in the United States in March, and the other is the non-farm employment population after the seasonal adjustment in the United States in March. What do these two data mean? Next, let me answer it.
First of all, the unemployment rate in the United States in March refers to the ratio of the unemployed population to the working population within a certain period of time (the number of labor force among the entire employed population who have the willingness to work but still have no work in a certain period of time). It aims to measure the idle labor capacity and is the main indicator that reflects the unemployment status of a country or region. The unemployment rate is one of the most important economic indicators. It is deeply affected by the supply and demand of the labor market and the economic cycle. The level of the unemployment rate also reflects the operating conditions of the economy. Although seen as a lag indicator, the unemployed population is an important signal for measuring overall economic health, as consumer spending is highly correlated with employment market conditions. The rise in unemployment rate indicates a weakening of consumption and is unfavorable to economic development; the decline in unemployment rate indicates an improvement in the economy.
We can see from the figure that the unemployment rate is showing a continuous downward trend, indicating that the economic situation is improving. The current forecast value is 3.7%, which is also 0.1% lower than the forecast value, which means that everyone is still optimistic about the future economic situation. If the announced value is greater than the forecast value, it will be negative for the US dollar.
Next, let’s take a look at the non-farm employment population and the number of non-farm employment (changes in non-farm payrolls): It is an item in the employment report. This project mainly counts the changes in jobs other than agricultural production. This data is released together with the unemployment rate. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Statistics on the first Friday of the month was 8:30 ET, which is 20:30 PM Beijing time. Changes in the number of non-agricultural employment reflect the development and growth of the manufacturing industry and service industry. The decrease in numbers means that enterprises reduce production and the economy enters a depression; in the absence of hyperinflation, if the number increases significantly, it shows that a healthy economic situation should be beneficial to the US dollar, and may indicate that interest rates will be raised, which is also beneficial to the US dollar. If the non-agricultural employment index increases, it reflects the rise in economic development, and vice versa.
At present, the previous value is 67.8 and the predicted value is 49. This is not optimistic about this index, which means that the non-agricultural employment population is likely to decline, which is negative for the US economy and the US dollar. Gold may rise sharply. At present, the two indexes are contrary. The truth will be revealed at 20:30 tonight. Let's wait and see.
