storage chips have a prominent position in the entire chip industry. In 2019, the global semiconductor market size was about US$400 billion, of which the storage chips were as high as US$120 billion, accounting for nearly 30%. Among them, DRAM's global sales were approximately US$62 billion, and NAND Flash's global sales were approximately US$57 billion. The market structure of
storage chips
DRAM global landscape is highly concentrated, and the three manufacturers of Samsung , SK Hynix, and Micron account for nearly 95% of the global share. The two Korean manufacturers, Samsung and SK Hynix, account for a total of about 75%.
NANDFlash The share of the top six manufacturers in the world accounts for more than 99%, while the share of the three Japanese and Korean manufacturers, Samsung, SK Hynix and Japan KIOXIA, exceeded 60%.
memory chip demand
According to IHS data, in the downstream application fields of NAND Flash, mobile phones, PCs, and servers account for 33%, 26%, and 24.5%, respectively. The output value of DRAM and NAND Flash is close and the addition of the two basically constitutes the total output value of memory chips. Therefore, overall, mobile phones, servers, and PCs account for 37%, 28%, and 20% of the memory chip demand respectively.
1, mobile
is impacted by this incident. China's smartphone sales will be -40% year-on-year in Q1 2020 and -10% year-on-year. Global Q1 was -15~-20% year-on-year, and -5~-10% year-on-year. IDC expects that the 5G mobile phone shipments will account for 8.9% of the total shipments in 2020, reaching 123.5 million units. In January 2020, the sales volume of 158,200 units on the 5G mobile phone line was 9.18% month-on-month, accounting for 15.5% of the total online sales of mobile phones.
data shows that the average stand-alone capacity of DRAM on smartphones was 25.1% from 2010 to 2019, and is predicted to grow by 13% year-on-year in 2020. The average stand-alone capacity of NAND Flash on smartphones was 31.2% from 2014 to 2019. The capacity growth rate of stand-alone DRAM and NANDFlash is still greater than the decline in smartphone sales in 2020. The demand for memory chips in the smartphone field will continue to rise. Data from
2 and PC
show that global PC shipments increased by 0.6% year-on-year to 261 million units in 2019. PC shipments are expected to continue to decline in 2020 and beyond. The compound growth rate from 2020 to 2022 is -2.5%
Yole predicts that the average single-machine capacity of PCs will exceed 10GB in 2024, and the compound growth rate of average single-machine capacity of DRAM will be more than 4.6% from 2019 to 2024, which is higher than the decline in PC sales. In 2024, the average stand-alone NAND Flash load capacity of PC is higher than 1,000GB. It is conservatively estimated that the average stand-alone capacity composite organization of PC NAND Flash from 2019 to 2024 will be more than 14.9%, which is far higher than the decline in PC sales. The demand for memory chips in the PC field will be on the rise.
3. Server:
2019 global server shipments were 11.33 million units, and the first half of 2019 was the bottom of the previous round of server prosperity cycle. Driven by the construction of new IT infrastructure such as cloud and AI, the server market is expected to rebound in 2020. DRAMeXchange predicts that the average single-machine capacity of the server will rise from 304GB in 2019 to 397GB in 2020, an increase of 30%. The average stand-alone capacity of the server will increase from 2300GB in 2019 to 2700GB in 2020, an increase of 17%. The demand for memory chips in the server field will show a significant upward trend.
storage chip supply
semiconductor production line has a high degree of automation and is not very dependent on labor; and wafer factories generally do not stop turning 24 hours a day, so there is no problem of stopping and resuming work.
Fab raw material inventory level usually remains at 2 to 3 months, but is facing a serious shortage of semiconductor raw materials this year. Many upstream components have seen price increases to varying degrees. The supply of raw materials has a great impact on fab production and will affect the supply of downstream products.
storage chip price cycle
DRAM price cycle is about 3 to 4 years, and is currently in the bottom recovery stage of the cycle. In December 2019, DRAM price bottomed out at a stage of phase, and the price was basically at a low point for many years.
NANDFlash price cycle is also about 3 to 4 years, and is currently in the bottom recovery stage of the cycle. In mid-2019, NANDFlash prices hit a stage of bottoming out. With the improvement of cloud demand, prices are expected to continue to rise.
Domestic storage chip leader
, MY Innovation : Hefei Changxin's technical partner, participating in the DRAM industrialization process of Hefei Changxin.
, Beijing Junzheng : It plans to acquire all Beijing Sicheng; Beijing Sicheng's memory chip products remain in the leading position in the field of DRAM and SRAM, and are the only company in mainland China that can develop and sell industrial-grade RAM chips on a large scale around the world.
, Lanqi Technology : Provides a memory interface chip for server memory sticks, with a global market share of about 40%.
. Taiji Industrial: The leader in DRAM packaging, mainly providing packaging services to South Korea SK Hynix, the world's second largest DRAM manufacturer, with a maximum monthly packaging volume of 1 billion.
Everyone is welcome to leave a message and communicate with
