? Who could be the mastermind? What is the motivation? What serious consequences will be caused? Regarding the "unprecedented" situation of the " Beixi-1" and " Beixi-2" subsea gas pipelines, which were damaged simultaneously within one day, the international public opinion field was speculating everywhere, and more of them were huge uneasy. Officials from the United States and Europe have described the matter as "deliberate act of vandalism", and most of them have expressed caution on the issue of "who did it", but some officials have directly pointed out the Russian name. Russian President's press secretary Peskov said on the 28th that the claim that accused Russia of being the mastermind behind the "North Stream Incident" is foreseeable and "stupid and absurd." Amid all kinds of speculations, former Polish Foreign Minister Sikorsky posted a tweet "Thanks to the United States" on the 27th, which made the outside world think a lot. Many analysts believe that this matter is confusing and may become a " Rashomon "-like unsolved case. But what makes the international community even more worried is that this incident not only leads to a new conflict point in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict front, making the European energy crisis worse, but also may open a "Pandora's box". Belgium Morning Post said on the 28th that the "North Stream" leak once again shows how fragile Europe is in the so-called "hybrid war". "We should now ask ourselves how much preparations have been made for such actions." For example, what if the underwater Internet cable connecting EU other countries and Belgium is blown up or cut off tomorrow? Have other critical infrastructures such as liquefied natural gas receiving stations, nuclear power plants and other cryptocurrencies been fully protected?
Some people "seem to have figured out who to blame"
Three places where the leak occurred in the "Northern Stream" natural gas pipeline are located in the waters of Swedish and Denmark . The Swedish measurement station detected two strong underwater explosions in the same water area where the pipeline leaked, which occurred at 0:03 and 17:04 on the 26th time. The "North Stream-1" pipeline was completed in 2011. It starts from Russia in the east and leads to Germany through the Baltic Sea seabed. It is more than 1,000 kilometers long, but gas supply has been stopped since August this year. The "Beixi-2" pipeline was completed last year and is basically parallel to the "Beixi-1". It has not yet been put into use, but some natural gas are still sealed in the pipeline.
"Everyone is scratching his head, trying to understand what is happening and what the motivation behind it may be," Katherine Porter, an consultant at Watt-Logic, a British independent energy consulting firm, told Qatar Al Jazeera on the 28th. "For pipelines, (the cause of damage) are usually either corrosion or aging, but the Nord Stream-2 is brand new. You may consider construction issues such as welding, but the Nord Stream-1 has been operating since 2012..."
27 to the 28th, the Danish Prime Minister and several senior EU officials said that leaks at three locations in the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline were not a coincidence. Assistant to the US President for National Security Sullivan and US State Department spokesman Price also described the matter as "obvious act of deliberate vandalism."
The US "Politics" news network quoted German Vice Premier and Minister of Economic and Climate Protection Habek on the 27th as saying that one situation that Europe is facing is that critical infrastructure, including energy supply facilities, has become "potential targets of attack." According to Danish Radio and Television, Danish Defense Minister Bozkov said on the 27th that he is increasing military deployment in the waters around Bornholm Island.
"Some European leaders seem to have figured out who to blame." "Political" News Network said that although Polish Prime Minister Molawitsky did not name the name on the 27th, he hinted that the matter was "related to the next step in the escalation of the situation in Ukraine." Ukrainian President adviser Podoriak directly posted on Twitter saying that the leak in the "North Stream-1" pipeline was "a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of invasion of the EU, and Russia wants to undermine the stability of the European economic situation."
"New York Times " quoted sources on the 27th as saying that the US CIA issued a "vague warning" to some European countries, including Germany, in June this year, saying that the "North Stream" pipeline may be attacked.
"Once is an accident, two is a coincidence, and three is hostile acts - even if not a fanatical reader of Cold War novels, you can see the thriller plot in the "007" movie in the real-life events of the "North Stream" gas pipeline this week." Bloomberg's report on the 28th also pointed his finger at Russia, saying that it opened up a new front in the energy war with Europe.
who is the beneficiary
"Silly and absurd!" According to , Russian News Agency html on the 228th, Russian President's press secretary Peskov refuted the claim that he accused Russia of being the mastermind behind the "North Stream Incident". He said Russia does not want to lose its natural gas supply pipeline, and so does Europe. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zakharova html announced on social media on the 228th that Russia will hold a UN Security Council meeting on provocative behaviors against the "North Stream" pipeline.
"A unique event in European history", Russian "Opinion" said on the 28th that the "North Stream" pipeline leakage incident is a major signal for every country, and now all underwater natural gas pipelines are in danger.
Jushkov, an expert from the Russian National Energy Security Foundation, said that the background of the incident is also worth mentioning. On the 27th, the "Referendum to Russia" held in four places in Ukraine entered its last day. On the same day, the Polish government held a launch ceremony for the Baltic natural gas pipeline project in Goleniuf, West Pomeri Province. The pipeline is a project that transports natural gas from the Norwegian continental shelf of the North Sea to Poland. It has a total length of about 900 kilometers and will be put into operation on October 1.
Russia's Issue News said on the 28th that due to the pressure from the United States, European governments are not ready to resume energy cooperation with Russia, and they have no reasonable reason to appease the people who are increasingly dissatisfied with the energy crisis. At this moment, the "North Stream" pipeline malfunctioned. "Now there is nothing that can stop the United States from making Europe more dependent on its liquefied natural gas, thus bringing more profits to U.S. exporters and weakening the European economy," said Andrianov, associate professor at the Russian Federal Government's University of Finance and Finance, analysed.
Amid all kinds of discussions, a tweet posted by European Parliament Member and former Polish Foreign Minister Sikorsky on the 27th has attracted widespread attention. He posted a picture of the scene of the accident in the "North Stream" pipeline and wrote: "Thank you, the United States." "Is this a formal statement about terrorist acts?" Zakharova asked on social platforms later on the 27th.
In the view of Russian media, the "North Stream Incident" may also have other beneficiaries. After the "Northern Stream" pipeline is damaged, Russia's natural gas pipeline line leading to Europe through Ukraine may be improved. The Russian Independent therefore believes that Ukraine will obtain additional income and leverage , which exerts influence on other European countries.
Some international relations experts also analyzed to the reporter of " Global Times " on the 28th that the contradictions within Europe are now very sharp on the issue of their position towards Russia, and it is not ruled out that some of the hardliners have taken radical measures to force Germany to cut off their thoughts about Russia.
A "Pandora's Box" was opened?
"North Stream" pipeline leakage incident had negative impacts on multiple levels. The Washington Post said that because there is still a large amount of natural gas in the pipeline, this has raised concerns about the release of methane that harms the environment, which is a major factor in climate change.
In addition, it is highly concerned that the energy crisis in Europe may make it worse. The New York Times said that although the incident will not have an immediate effect on European energy supply, it has increased the risk of an energy war between Russia and the West and also exacerbated European uneasiness. According to the Russian Businessman report on the 27th, the inspection of the "North Stream" pipeline may take several weeks, and the restoration work may last for several months or even years, which basically ruled out the possibility of supplying natural gas to Europe through the "North Stream" this winter.Russian scholar Kondratiev believes that the cost of eliminating the consequences of an accident may be as high as 200 million to 300 million euros.
Wang Xiaoquan, a researcher at the Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter on the 28th that this incident will cause turbulence in international energy prices, and this situation will impact the economy and people's livelihood of Europe, especially Germany and other countries. "Due to difficulties in energy supply and high prices, a large number of enterprises may face losses and shutdowns, and the people will suffer in the cold winter. The political situation in some countries may be turbulent due to rising public grievances, and create opportunities for external forces to interfere in internal affairs."
"Destroying European infrastructure opens Pandora's box." The Russian Independent published an article on the 28th saying that the explosion in the "North Stream" pipeline shows that the Ukrainian crisis has been directly transferred to the EU. Who organized the operation is not the most critical issue. More importantly, if natural gas pipelines can be destroyed, why can't Germany's chemical plants and other facilities be blown up? These factories are using Russian fuel. The article believes that one of the purposes of this sabotage is to internationalize the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Wang Xiaoquan said that the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline is suspected to have been deliberately destroyed and may start the terrorism process that attacks important European infrastructure, which marks the escalation and "overlimits" of the game between great powers and "hybrid war". He believes that it is difficult to complete the attack on the undersea natural gas pipeline without the acquiescence or even control of relevant national governments and major powers. This trend is very dangerous and will put the intensity of the game between great powers into a dangerous range with uncertainty.
