The past year has been a year of turbulence in the capital market, a year of challenge and a year of style turning, but Boshi's chief fund manager Guo Jun responded well.
The Boshi New Income Fund he managed increased by 23.84% in that year (the figure below), with earnings exceeding most stocks and equity-oriented mixed funds. Moreover, it has been among the top in performance and remuneration for four consecutive years.
Data source: choice, the same below.
The Bose Credit Bond Fund he managed achieved an 8.59% return in 2021. The newly established Boshi Shuangjixin Six-month Fund that year earned 8.18% that year (from the date of its establishment to the end of 2021), and its yield ranks high among mixed bond-biased funds in the same period.
As a rare "top star" in the stock and bond markets in the industry, what principles does Guo Jun's investment adhere to, what is his investment philosophy, and what view does he have on the future?
01 Major asset allocation must grasp the critical moments
One of the core abilities in the field of "fixed income +" is the ability to allocate major asset classes, and Guo Jun is very experienced in this area.
In his opinion, the allocation of major assets of should not be too thick or too narrow in the first place. The allocation of assets is not only stocks and bond assets, but should also be expanded to (arranged from low to high by risk preference): cash, deposits, treasury bonds, financial bonds, high-grade credit bonds, medium- and low-grade credit, REITs, preferred stocks, perpetual bonds, convertible bonds, common stocks, PE, VC, etc.
The logic of asset allocation is to discover those low-risk, high-return investment opportunities under the general logic of low-risk, low-return, high-risk, and high-return investment opportunities.
These opportunities often exist at a moment when an investor is very greedy, or at a moment when another investor is very afraid of it. will also exist at a major turning point in the market trend.
When the valuation difference of the associated assets reaches a very extreme position, such as the valuation difference between term spreads, credit spreads, growth stocks and value stocks reaches a very extreme position, it is often when the fund manager creates a larger ALPHA (excess return) for investors.
At critical moments, "discover and buy those low-risk and high-yield assets" or "sell or avoid those high-risk and low-yield assets" is one of the jobs of a fund manager.
02 Convertible bond investment "Frequently make new"
In the past year, the overall rise of the convertible bond market has brought a lot of returns to investors. As the first fund manager in the industry to make achievements in convertible bond investment, how would Guo Jun view today's convertible bond investment?
Guo Jun believes that today's convertible bonds have already begun to take shape at the beginning of this century. At the beginning, there were fewer investment varieties and large price fluctuations. In the early years, Maolian convertible bonds, airport convertible bonds, and China Merchants Bank convertible bonds all showed obvious investment opportunities.
Later, the scale of convertible bonds has increased by leaps and bounds, but the entire market also had relatively systematic opportunities in 2014 and the end of 2018. In 2015, there was also a significant overvalued situation. The funds managed by Guojun significantly reduced their holdings of convertible bonds in 2015 and bought a large amount in 2018, grasping this convertible bond cycle.
Guo Jun believes that seizing the investment opportunities of convertible bonds "no matter how change," means standing on the basis of a unified assessment of bond nature and stock nature, seizing investment opportunities and selling risks. Especially at this stage, the value of its corresponding underlying stock should be considered more. Often, only by correctly judging the value of the underlying stock can you seize the opportunity of convertible bonds.
is now in the current position. If we look at the return alone, the convertible bond market has strengthened for three years, and the investment opportunities of convertible bonds in the future are more in some structural opportunities.
03 Counter-trend investment Value investment
Guo Jun summarized his investment philosophy into value investment and counter-trend investment. In his opinion, there are always opportunities in the market. In any time period, you can always find so-called low-risk and high-return assets in a certain subcategory. And when the market sentiment is particularly consistent and the valuation is extremely extreme, it will be easy to discover.
Therefore, investors should seize such opportunities, first, have "vision", professional experience and vision; first, they should have "courage" and dare to think in reverse when market sentiment is particularly consistent, or even extreme.
2014 and 2018 are similar opportunities. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and many valuable varieties have experienced major drawdowns, and convertible bonds have fallen below their face value in batches. Looking back, when investors on the spot are pessimistic and do not have much confidence, it is often the time when the market gives opportunities.
Therefore, whether you can be clear-headed in the counter-trend, use the intrinsic value of the varieties as the basis for investment, and find truly cost-effective varieties to allocate them is the key to whether you can create better returns for investors.
04 History is always "similar to the spirit but not the shape"
Guo Jun has a unique way to temper counter-trend investment, which is to form a "muscle memory" in investment thinking through continuous review and review.
He said that history is of reference significance to reality. This meaning is not to copy the details, but to understand the laws from the essence. Through continuous review, a subconscious response to making the right choice is formed.
He often quotes the ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus to describe this vague sense of correctness. Heraclitus said: People cannot step into the same river twice. This is true. But the rivers people step into have certain essentially repeatable rules. For example, the flowing direction, the rolling Yangtze River flows eastward, has been flowing for thousands of years.
In investment, finding commonalities and repetitions are important end points for review. This repetition does not require 100% repetition, but focuses on the rules that may be repeated in most cases, which is great.
05 Evaluate investment in
In addition to convertible bonds, Guojun has made great profits in investing in value stocks in history. He has made strong cyclical companies such as home appliance stocks, bank stocks and even nonferrous metals, which have all made arrangements and heavy positions in the industry, and has achieved high returns. What is the experience behind this?
Guo Jun said that no matter what kind of assets or varieties it invests in , it is a standard in his mind.
For example, the home appliance stocks and bank stocks he is concerned about have high coupons and stable growth space. This is also a type of asset he loves very much, similar to fixed income assets.
When such companies have low valuations and good prospects, they will form a feature similar to "upward floating rate bonds". At that point, Guo Jun often uses fixed income assets to replace bonds in the portfolio.
But this type of company must have the premise that the industry or company cannot go downhill. Otherwise, even if the dividend rate remains unchanged, the dividend rate of such assets will go down, and even gradually enters the ranks of low dividends or even no dividends. The latter is very likely to be a value trap.
Guo Jun also said that under the premise that the company's prospects are similar and the dividends are stable, he does not have any preference for a company's growth rate, market share, or market value.
06 The market is breaking all "rigid" returns
Guo Jun mentioned an important trend in the investment market in recent years, and some assets that once had rigid and high returns are gradually "disappearing".
Historically, the risk-free and higher-yield investment opportunities in the public's minds, such as trusts, bank wealth management products, real estate and new stock subscription, have all broken their rigid profit-making side and have truly lowered the risk-free rate of return of the entire market.
He believes that the risk-free high-return opportunities are broken, which means that the effectiveness of the market is improving, which is a trend. Just like , there is no army in the world that will not defeat war , new stocks will not exist for a long time, and trusts will not exist forever.
But this will not mean that some areas will completely lose opportunities. For example, issuing new products may still be an effective strategy, but it requires a professional team and discernible choice.
07 In the future, investment will pay more attention to segmentation opportunities
Guo Jun’s judgment on the opportunity in 2022 is that there are no systematic opportunities in the market and no systematic risks. Therefore, was calm about this round of market callback.
He believes that to explore investment opportunities this year, we must pay attention to balanced allocation and take into account all kinds of assets. An investment method that focuses on one track like in previous years may not be suitable.
The main clues are, on the one hand, banks, real estate, transportation, nonferrous metals, these so-called "old economy" cyclical stocks have certain opportunities.After the "dual carbon" target of
was proposed, the capacity supply of some cyclical industries was limited, and their demand would not be completely replaced, which gave birth to some investment opportunities.
On the other hand, growth stocks with relatively reasonable valuations can also be considered. These companies have a certain growth potential, and their valuations can also be allocated if they are within a certain valuation range.
Data source: Fund periodic report, as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, past performance does not represent future returns.
Guo Jun is currently in charge of three funds (combined A and C shares):
①Boshi Credit Bond A was established on June 10, 2009. Guo Jun’s employment date was the same. Historical performance from 2016 to 2020 was: 1.50%, -0.51%, 3.94%, 19.97%, and 17.28% respectively; the performance benchmarks for the same period were: 0.18%, 0.94%, 5.73%, 7.36%, and 5.52% respectively;
②Boshi New Income A was established in February 2016 On the 4th, Guo Jun's appointment date was February 29, 2016, and historic performance from 2016 to 2020 was: 2.19%, 5.57%, 3.82%, 25.99%, and 35.29% respectively; the performance benchmarks for the same period were: 7.29%, 10.65%, -9.62%, 19.92%, and 15.20% respectively;
③Boshi Shuangjixin 6-month Holding Period A was established on 2021.1.20, Guo Jun's appointment date was the same, and the fund manager jointly managed was Zhang Lu (the appointment date was the same as Guo Jun), with a performance of 4.72% since its establishment; the performance benchmark for the same period was 0.11%.
Risk warning: The above is the content of fund brand promotion. Funds are different from financial tools that expect fixed income such as bank savings and bonds. Different types of funds have different risks and returns. Investors may not only share the returns generated by fund investment, but also bear the losses caused by fund investment. The fund manager promises to manage and use fund assets with the principles of honesty, trustworthiness, diligence and responsibility, but does not guarantee the certain profits of the fund or returns. There is a risk of fluctuation in the net value of the fund. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund, and the fund's past performance does not predict its future performance. Investors should carefully read legal documents such as the Fund Contract, the Prospectus and Product Summary, and pay attention to the appropriateness opinions issued by the Company in a timely manner. The opinions of each sales agency on appropriateness are not necessarily consistent, and the company's appropriateness matching opinions do not indicate a substantial judgment or guarantee on the risks and returns of the Fund. There are differences in the fund risk-return characteristics and fund risk level in the fund contract depending on the considerations. Investors should understand the risk and return of the fund, make prudent decisions based on their own investment purpose, duration, investment experience and risk tolerance, and bear risks on their own. They should not accept sales behaviors and illegal publicity and promotion materials that do not meet the requirements of laws and regulations. This article does not constitute personal investment advice. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in the article meet their specific circumstances. Funds are risky, so you need to invest with caution. Please make independent judgments and decisions. The details and purchase channels mentioned in this material can be found on the administrator's official website - Bosera Fund - Fund products. The website for the introduction of relevant business qualifications of Bosera Fund is: http://www.bosera.com/column/index.do?classid=00020002000200010007.
Disclaimer:
The information in this report is from public information, and our company does not make any guarantees about the accuracy and completeness of such information. Under no circumstances does the information or opinions expressed in this report constitute the actual investment results of our company and does not constitute any investment advice to investors. The views and predictions in it only represent the views at that time and may change in the future. Please do not quote or reprint without consent.
If the data source in this report is not specified, they are all from Wind and Bose Fund.
