, welcome to Chengwei International Observation.
The Russian-Ukraine war has been fighting for half a year, and the situation has changed recently. On the one hand, Ukraine launched a large-scale counterattack on the northern front. Ukraine said that they had recovered a large amount of territory and even prepared for a large-scale counterattack. On the other hand, Russia also claimed that they did withdraw their troops in a planned manner in order to adjust their future military offensive targets.
Many people think that Russia is really in trouble on the front line? Two days ago, the SCO summit of , Russian President Putin met with the Indian Prime Minister. Faced with the question from Modi , Putin said that Russia will end the war as soon as possible. You must know that since the war started, India's attitude has been quite hesitant.
On the one hand, the United States and India have had a very good relationship over the years. When the entire Western world sanctioned Russia, the United States especially wanted to pull India together. On the other hand, we know that India and Russia had a very close relationship in history. During the former Soviet Union, the Soviet Union gave India a lot of aid. Today, although the weapons of India's army are said to be made by all countries, more than half of them are made by Russian weapons. Therefore, the relationship between Russia and India is very close, and coupled with the energy sold by Russia to India, it is greatly reduced.
India's economy has flourished over the years and also needs energy and resources very much. Therefore, India has not spit on the issue of sanctions against Russia and has not followed the United States. But this does not mean that India is firmly standing on Russia's side. Therefore, during the SCO summit, Modi told Putin not very politely that war should not be fought.
. Faced with Modi's question, Putin immediately stated that Russia would end the war as soon as possible, which made many people interpret whether Russia really admits its conscience, and does Russia feel that it cannot continue the war, so it means withdrawing troops. However, everyone ignored the next sentence. Although Putin said that Russia wants to end the war as soon as possible, Putin still has another sentence, that is, Ukraine is unwilling to negotiate, what does it mean? I'm afraid the latter sentence is more important.
On the one hand, Russia is very clear. Today he wants to win more and more votes of sympathy and help from more and more countries. You see, the situation is very clear. The United States has merged nearly 50 countries and regions and has sanctioned Russia in a crazy way in terms of economic sanctions. For Russia, although it has countless energy resources, food and weapons, it is hard to beat four palms with two fists. Russia also needs help. It is better to have one more supporter than one less supporter at this critical moment. Therefore, in the face of Modi's question, Putin obviously cannot be Modi's face. Putin cannot tell Modi that it is impossible. I have to fight this war. Everything is also worthy of being famous.
More than half a year ago, Putin delivered a speech for more than an hour. He pointed out the key reason for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, that is, Ukraine must completely turn to , NATO . If he accepts American weapons and makes Russia feel threatened, he will take the initiative first.
And six months later, when facing Modi's doubts, Putin made it very clear that I want to end the battle as soon as possible, but Ukraine is unwilling to negotiate, so Putin cleverly led the culprit to Ukraine.
So I think if you interpret that Russia has admitted defeat based on this, because Ukraine launched a counterattack on the northern front and regained some land, Russia is ready to end the war completely. This is too early. In fact, on the one hand, for Russia, although the war has encountered certain setbacks, its advantage is still in Russia.
This war is still fighting on Ukrainian land, and Russia has controlled multiple Ukrainian territories. What is more important is that the war continues and the balance of power between the two sides has not changed significantly. Although the United States continues to provide economic assistance and weapons, the United States still dares not send troops in this state. Even if Russia encounters some difficulties, it can still grasp the initiative on the battlefield. What is more important is that after more than half a year, Russia has also realized its lack of military strength, so Russia has begun to recruit soldiers on a large scale.
After all, Russia has a population of 140 million. He has not launched a general mobilization for the whole nation yet. The war is only going on in Ukraine. Life in Russia's big cities is normal. Even Putin himself delivered a speech two days ago saying that the war has lasted for half a year, but Russia's inflation is within a controllable range. Russia's economic recession is only single-digit. Russia's central government's fiscal surplus is even better than many G20 countries, and it is obvious that winter is coming soon.
For Russia, winter may be a good time for a huge change in the whole situation, why? Will Europe's energy crisis become even more tragic after the arrival of winter? At least you don’t need to keep warm in summer. You use natural gas relatively less. In winter, will the Germans really chop firewood to keep warm? Do you really let Italians turn on the fire for 2 minutes when cooking noodles, and then turn off the heat and stuffy for 10 minutes? Do you really need to let all Europeans wear one more sweater to endure the cold at home?
Yes, due to the lack of Russian natural gas and Russian energy, the whole European winter will become extremely cold. Today, not only does Beixi 2 no longer supply gas, but even Beixi 1 has been stopped for more than ten days. So it is obvious that for Russia, the initial plan was to fight blitzkrieg , but now it has been dragged into a protracted war, so it is better to let him delay it for a while.
On the one hand, Ukraine wants to organize a counterattack, which is unlikely. Ukraine has been in war for more than half a year, and the entire country's economy has collapsed. Now many Western countries do not accept Ukraine's currency. They know that it will soon become a pile of waste paper. On the other hand, Russia can use this long winter to adjust the target of military offensive and recruit more troops at home for training. On the one hand, the whole winter can rest and recuperate. On the other hand, it will continue to get stuck in Europe's neck on energy issues, but Russia can exert greater combat power by the beginning of spring.
So Putin answered Modi, I want to end this war, I want to end as soon as possible, but the problem is that Ukraine is unwilling, Ukraine is unwilling to sit down and negotiate with me, which is the current state. To be honest, both Russia and Ukraine believe that they have no basis for negotiation, and Russia's demands are definitely impossible for Ukraine to meet. On the other hand, Ukraine's demands are to take back all Crimea . What can Russia do? So it is obvious that this war will be dragged into a protracted war, and Putin's purpose is to push the reason for continuing the war to Ukraine.
