Reporter of the Economic Business: Dong Tianyi Editor of the Economic Business Business: Pei Jianru
On the morning of January 28, Tesla announced its fourth quarter and full-year results for 2020. Financial report data shows that Tesla has achieved profitability for the sixth consecutive quarter and achieved its first full-year profit.
Before the release of this financial report, the outside world was generally optimistic about Tesla 's fourth quarter performance in 2020. On January 28, Beijing time, the stock price of Tesla (TSLA.US) once rose to US$891.50 per share during the session. However, after the financial report data was released, the stock price of Tesla fell by more than 7% after the market closed. As of the close of US stocks that day, the share price of Tesla closed at US$864.16 per share, down 2.14%, and the company's market value was US$819.138 billion.
Image source: Sina Finance
Although the annual production and sales of Tesla are still less than the "small" of traditional car companies such as Toyota , Volkswagen , under the guarantee of the production capacity of Shanghai Super Factory, the annual production and sales of Tesla have increased rapidly. Tesla official annual sales report shows that in 2020, Tesla produced and delivered about 500,000 electric vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 36%, most of which of the incremental volume originated from the Chinese market.
But it is worth mentioning that unlike the Chinese market situation, the sales volume of Tesla in the US and European markets is not very ideal. According to market research company Cross-Sell, statistics on new car registration data in 22 states in the United States show that in 2020, the sales of Tesla in the United States increased by less than 2%, while the registration volume of new car registration for Model 3 fell by 35%. In the European market, according to EV Volumes sales data, Tesla Model 3 ranks fourth in sales of pure electric models in mainland Europe.
Tesla said in its financial report that in the next few years, its new car delivery volume is expected to achieve an average annual growth of 50%. The annual average growth rate of automobile delivery volume in 2021 will exceed 50%.
performance is less than market expectations
Tesla fourth quarter financial report shows that the company's performance ushered in comprehensive growth. Among them, the total revenue of Tesla in the fourth quarter was US$10.744 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46%; the net profit attributable to common shareholders was US$270 million, a year-on-year increase of 157%; the gross profit was US$2.066 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49%; the adjusted profit before interest and tax was US$1.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%; the earnings per share attributable to common shareholders was US$0.24, a year-on-year increase of 118%; the free cash flow was US$1.868 billion, a year-on-year increase of 84%.
In the whole year of 2020, Tesla achieved revenue of US$31.536 billion, an increase of 28% year-on-year; net profit attributable to common shareholders under US$721 million under US$862 million in 2019 to profit; free cash flow for the whole year was US$2.786 billion, an increase of 158% year-on-year.
Although Tesla has achieved profits for the sixth consecutive quarter and achieved profits for the full year of 2020, its overall performance is still less than market expectations. Wall Street had previously predicted that with the development momentum in the past few quarters, Tesla may reach $1.04 in the fourth quarter of 2020. The data investment community Estimize is more optimistic about the earnings per share of Tesla in the fourth quarter of 2020, at $1.08 per share.
Under the US General Accounting Standards (GAAP), Tesla achieved a net profit attributable to common shareholders of only US$270 million in the fourth quarter, far lower than the market's expectations of US$763 million; adjusted earnings per share of 80 cents, lower than the market's average expectations of US$1.03.
Some analysts believe that the reduction in net profit may be caused by changes in Tesla 's operating strategy. According to the financial report, in 2020, Tesla has significantly reduced its models in China and global markets, resulting in a 11% drop in the average sales price of its products in the fourth quarter. Affected by this, the gross profit margin of Tesla products in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 19.2%, the lowest level in the fourth quarter since 2019.
Image source: Visual China
In addition, the main sales product structure of Tesla has also shifted from mid-to-high-end models such as Model S and Model X to the cheaper Model 3 and Model Y.According to the financial report, the total delivery volume of Tesla in the fourth quarter was about 180,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 61%. Among them, the delivery volume of Model 3 and Model Y models was about 160,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 75%; the delivery volume of Model S and Model X was about 19,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 3%.
Tesla said that the company is putting Model Y into production at the Gigafactory in Berlin and Texas, and delivery is expected to begin in 2021, while the Shanghai Gigafactory will continue to expand its production capacity this year, and Semi electric trucks will also begin delivery in 2021. With capacity expansion and localization plans implemented, the company's operating margin will continue to grow.
Tesla performs "hot and cold" in the global market
In fact, in 2020, the sales of Tesla were able to achieve "leapfrog" growth, mainly due to the hot sales of Model 3 models in the Chinese market. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, in December 2020, the Tesla sold a total of about 24,000 Model 3s in China, a month-on-month increase of 10.18% to a record high, accounting for more than 11% of China's total new energy vehicle sales that month; in 2020, the Model 3, whose price dropped to 250,000 yuan after subsidy, reached 137,500 units in China, winning the 2020 China's new energy vehicle sales championship.
However, in the European market where the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, the sales of Tesla are not very ideal. According to EV Volumes sales data, the Tesla Model 3 ranks fourth in sales of pure electric models in mainland Europe, with the top models being Renault Zoe, Volkswagen ID.3 and Hyundai KONA respectively.
"H Tesla shareholders should be worried about this. What is even more shocking is that directly competitive models such as Audi e-tron are on the list, but Tesla Model S and Model X models do not enter the top 20." Peter Garnry, head of stock strategy at Saxo Bank, said that in recent months, Renault, Volkswagen and Hyundai have surpassed Tesla , indicating that market competition is heating up.
In fact, as traditional car companies gradually increase their investment in the new energy vehicle market, Tesla is also adjusting its product operation strategy to gain more market share. Recently, Tesla has largely lowered the price of Model 3 in some European countries. For example, the price of French Tesla Model 3 Standard Range+ has been reduced from 49,990 euros to 43,800 euros; the price of this version of Germany has been reduced from 42,990 euros to 39,990 euros, a decrease of 3,000 euros. In addition, the long-range version and Performance performance version models have also lowered the terminal price respectively.
As a local American brand, Tesla sales in the United States are also biding farewell to the previous "one-selling" situation. According to market research company Cross-Sell, statistics on new car registration data in 22 states in the United States show that in 2020, the sales of Tesla in the United States increased by less than 2%, while the registration volume of new car registration for Model 3 fell by 35%, from 103,800 in 2019 to 68,000.
Image source: Visual China
Some analysts believe that the slowdown in Tesla sales in the United States may be related to the impact of the new crown epidemic. At the same time, there are also reasons why consumers who purchase Tesla cars in the United States cannot enjoy the federal tax credit preferential policy. In addition, the recent concentrated product quality problems have also had a certain negative impact on the sales of Tesla .
A few days ago, due to a safety hazard in the fault of the vehicle touch screen, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has sent a letter to Tesla , asking Tesla to recall 158,000 problematic vehicles. Meanwhile, the German Automobile Authority (KBA) has also launched an investigation into this issue, and Tesla may face the largest recall since its establishment.
But even so, the market is still optimistic about the future development of Tesla . "Although more than 150 automakers around the world are actively pursuing opportunities in the electric vehicle market, we believe that the market is still the world of Tesla ."
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