Source: Energy R&D Center
Future market view
Yesterday morning we mentioned in the report that the willingness to push funds in the future seems to have weakened. We need to be cautious when continuing to chase highs. Most of the time on Thursday, oil prices repeatedly pulled in the short term and showed that the low level rebounded nearly $10, and the energy continued to rise was close to exhaustion. When the oil price began to gradually fall during the night trading period. In response to the Saudi-first proposal of OPEC+ in order to maintain the balance of the oil market and cope with the situation where oil futures are separated from fundamentals, the market may consider measures including production cuts. Through actions, the market expressed seriousness of this. Oil prices have reversed the originally fragile situation from Monday. Obviously, OPEC+ has successfully digested huge inventory through production cut cooperation in the past two years and kept the market hungry, which has also allowed OPEC+ to rebuild its influence on oil prices. Oil exporting countries still want to extend this tight supply situation as much as possible and keep oil prices at high levels as possible, and investors know this.
Although it has given great respect to Saudi Arabia's market for protecting the market, as time goes by, the situation that oil prices need to face is the downward pressure on the global economy and the reality that demand is lower than expected. This is also the reason why oil prices have not continued to be strong since June. This pressure will continue to put pressure on oil prices in the second half of the year. If oil prices want to further upgrade the rebound, it is necessary to have a positive impact on supply and demand levels that can change the current situation. Before Iran's crude oil returns, the possibility of OPEC+ implementing production cuts is very small, which will also be strongly opposed by major consumer countries around the world. This means that it is possible to protect the market. It is not enough to continue to push up oil prices by speaking up alone. At the same time, the weak demand for refined oil shown by the EIA weekly report is still a hidden concern. International oil prices continue to rebound this week, and the monthly difference structure has not improved significantly. Although crude oil inventories have declined, the supply and demand level has not brought actual support to oil prices. The decline in the night market shows that the rebound is just a rebound after all, and has not changed the weak pattern of oil prices. Today, the market focus is on the impact of Fed Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hall annual meeting on the expectation of interest rate hikes. Once hawkish remarks are made, commodities are expected to be under overall pressure and downside risks need to be paid attention to.
Daily Dynamics
【1】WTI's main crude oil futures closed down $2.37, down 2.5%, to $92.52 per barrel; Brent's main crude oil futures closed down $2.76, down 2.73%, to $98.46 per barrel; INE's main crude oil futures closed down 0.95%, to $732.9 yuan.
【2】The US dollar index fell 0.2% to 108.43; the Hong Kong Stock Exchange dollar fell 0% to 6.8784; the US 10-year Treasury bond fell 0% to 117.23; the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.98% to 33,291.78.
Recent News
【1】50 or 75 basis points, Fed officials are undecided;
According to CME's "Feder Observation": the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points by September is 39.5%, and the probability of 75 basis points by 60.5%; the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike by 75 basis points by November is 7.4%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike by 100 basis points is 43.4%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike by 125 basis points is 49.2%. More than 10 Fed officials are vague about how much rate hikes they will support at their September meeting, but continue to stress that they will raise further rates and hold them for a while after stopping rate hikes until inflation is squeezed out of the economy; 1
Kansas City Fed Chairman George said interest rate hikes may lead to an increase in unemployment and have begun to curb household and business spending, but the Fed will not relax its tightening policy efforts. It is still too early to say whether it is appropriate to raise interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points at the September meeting. The target range of federal funds rate may eventually need to exceed 4% to have an expected impact, and may need to keep interest rates high for a period of time;
Philadelphia Fed Chairman Huck also sent a similar message, although it seems that his expectations for terminal policy rates are a little lower than George. Hopefully, seeing interest rates reach, say, above 3.4% - that's the median in the summary of last economic forecasts - and then maybe stay for a while. As for next month’s decision, he said he needs to see what the next inflation report is going on.Huck said: "Whether it is 50 basis points or 75 basis points, I can't be sure now;
Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, "On this issue, I will toss a coin" to decide whether to raise interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points;
St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad said that the current interest rate is not high enough to start curbing price pressure. He reiterated his tendency to raise interest rates at the front end, and raise the target range of federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% by the end of the year.
[2] Data released by the UK's Office of National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday (August 24) showed that the UK's fuel imports from Russia fell to zero for the first time since the data was found in 1997. In the year to February this year, the average import volume was USD 499 million/month, under the pretext of the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, the British government achieved its goal of gradually stopping buying any Russian gas and oil. The UK Statistics Office claimed that before the Ukrainian war, Russia was the UK's largest supplier of refined oil, accounting for 24.1% of total imports. It also supplies 5.9% of UK crude oil and 4.9% of natural gas.
JPMorgan said that as soaring natural gas prices trigger inflation, forcing the ECB to raise further interest rates, the eurozone may face a more severe recession than expected around the end of this year. JPMorgan Chase now expects natural gas prices to reach 200 euros/mWh in the coming quarters, saying its previously forecast price expectations of 150 euros/mWh seem too low, and spot prices are almost twice that level. JPMorgan Chase analyst Greg Fuzesi said in a research report that for the ECB, further inflation will make it harder to stop hikes immediately under what we assumed so far. Therefore, we re-include forecasts for the 50 basis points rate hikes in October and 25 basis points rate hikes in December.
【3】As energy-deficient economies increasingly turn to the United States for energy supply, the amount of crude and refined oil exports from the United States reached the highest level in 30 years.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the European energy crisis has intensified, while the United States has been reaping benefits. As energy-deficient economies increasingly turn to the United States for energy supply, the amount of crude and refined oil exports from the United States has reached the highest level in 30 years. Level.
Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday (August 24) showed that last week (August 19), the overall U.S. oil (including crude oil and diesel) exports reached 11.076 million barrels per day, a record high since 1991.
Among them, diesel exports soared 20% this week, while daily crude oil exports exceeded 4 million barrels for the second consecutive week, the first time this has happened since the U.S. Congress lifted the decades-long oil export ban at the end of 2015.
The United States is the world's second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European countries imposed sanctions on Russia, resulting in a decrease in oil supply from Russia.
As the EU and Russia are engaged in an energy game, the United States is reaping benefits. European countries have turned to the United States for more supplies and have intensified their energy battle with Asian countries.
The U.S. Department of Commerce released data last month that from January to May this year, Europe imported about 210 million barrels of U.S. crude oil, and Asia imported about 190 million barrels of U.S. crude oil. This is the first time since 2016 that Europe has surpassed Asia and became the largest buyer of U.S. oil.
In addition, due to the sharp increase in exports to Europe, the United States' liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports exceeded Australia and Qatar in the first half of this year, jumping to the world's first place. Earlier this month, EIA cited data from the International Natural Gas Association (CEDIGAZ) that U.S. LNG exports in the first half of this year were an average of 11.2 billion cubic feet per day, an increase of 12% from the second half of last year, making it the world's largest LNG exporter.
Above chart data source Wenhua Finance WIND Haitong Futures Investment Consulting Department
This article comes from the financial industry
