Iron ore | Steel | Coke | Nickel & Stainless Steel | Copper | Zinc | Aluminum | Precious Metals | Asphalt | Crude Oil | Fuel Oil | Pulp | Natural Rubber & No. 20 Glue | Methanol | Urea | Steam Coal | PTA | PF | MEG | EB | Plastics | PVC | PP
Chehongyun
Investment consulting business certificate number: Z0012165
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Iron ore
[Trading Strategy]
price square On April 24, the price of imported iron ore of Caofeidian Port fell by 25-55 throughout the day, and the market trading sentiment was relatively active, and the transaction was acceptable. The price of imported iron ore of Qingdao Port fell by 27-43 throughout the day, and the market trading sentiment was still acceptable, and the transaction was average. In terms of supply, AUBa shipment continued to rebound slightly, and China's arrival volume also rebounded at a low level to above the annual average, and the overall supply showed an increasing trend. In terms of demand, many regions once again temporarily blocked, and the transportation of raw materials in steel plants is still restricted, and some long-process steel plants have passive maintenance, but at the same time, there are still blast furnaces in other areas during the resumption of production, and maintenance and production are in parallel. Last week, the data from the Ganglian data showed that iron and water production fell slightly. In terms of inventory, steel mills continue to accelerate pick-up, and the port average daily port clearance has risen at a high level, but the recovery of port volume has increased the inlet volume, resulting in a narrowing of the decline in port inventory. The tightening of the supply and demand gap between iron ore still supports the price of ore, but the negative and negative policies have triggered a decline in ore prices. Coupled with the continuous shrinking of steel mill profits, bulls and short factors are intertwined, and the price of ore may fluctuate in the short term. In the later period, we need to focus on the epidemic and national policies.
[Related Price]
100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 l3PB powder 942 fell 43, 1146 fell 27, 707 fell 29, and Yangdi powder 930 fell 35.
[Important Information]
1. World Steel Association: In March 2022, the crude steel production of 64 countries included in the World Steel Association statistics was 161 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%. Among them, China's crude steel production in March was 88.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%; India's output was 10.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; Japan's output was 8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%.
2. On April 24, Wang Yiming, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said at the "2022 Asset Management Summit" held by the China Wealth Management 50 Forum that the epidemic should be effectively controlled, especially in early May, and a greater macroeconomic policy should be implemented to hedge the impact of the epidemic, so that the economic growth rate in the second quarter can return to more than 5%, which is particularly important for laying the foundation for the country to achieve the expected goal of 5.5%. At present, we should actively and effectively expand domestic demand and consumption, stabilize the industrial chain and supply chain, and effectively stabilize market expectations.
3. Starting from April 22, Tangshan Qianxi, Luannan , Gaoxin, Yutian , Lubei, Lunan , Fengnan , Fengrun and other places will be lifted from all regions; Wu'an will be blocked and controlled in the whole city; Nanchang, Jiangxi begins three-day static management. Data from the China Iron and Steel Association shows that in mid-April 2022, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises was 2.2356 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.52%; the steel inventory was 19.6672 million tons (the highest since the beginning of this year), an increase of 1.1791 million tons over the previous ten years, an increase of 6.38%. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)
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Steel
[Trading Strategy]
on Friday affected by the downturn in macro sentiment, and the 10 contract thread is currently located near the blast furnace cost. Combined with the weekend spot decline and the central bank's speech, the short-term position may be supported. There may be further strengthening of the macroscopic at the Politburo meeting. The current cost of thread long process in East China is around 4,880 yuan, the cost of electric furnace valley point in East China is around 5,000, and the cost of flat electricity is around 5,160. The profit on the market has fallen sharply and is at a seasonal low. In combination with the crude steel reduction policy, long steel mills are driven by profits.
unilateral: short-term interval operation (between blast furnace cost and electric furnace cost).
arbitrage: 1. Long snail ore ratio (10 contracts), risks: steel demand is less than expected, raw material output is less than expected, etc.
2. Long threads at lows 10-1 price difference, risk: stable growth is less than expected, threads continue to accumulate inventory, etc.
[Spot price]
spot: Tangshan strip steel fell 40 to 5,000 yuan on the weekend, and steel billets in Tangshan area fell 40 to 4,750 yuan.
[Important Information]
1. Wang Yiming, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council: At present, the epidemic should be effectively controlled, especially in early May, and a greater macroeconomic policy should be implemented to hedge the impact of the epidemic, so that the economic growth rate in the second quarter can return to more than 5%, which is particularly important for laying the foundation for the country to achieve the expected goal of 5.5%. At present, we should actively and effectively expand domestic demand and consumption, stabilize the industrial chain and supply chain, and effectively stabilize market expectations.
2. At present, Qinhuangdao steel companies strictly implement epidemic prevention measures, and steel companies basically maintain production, but rural roads, provincial roads, etc. in some counties and districts are prohibited from passing. Some steel companies are greatly affected by the arrival of goods and can only consume inventory and produce. Most steel mills have been affected by limited impact, and scrap steel arrivals have slightly decreased compared with usual days. Scrap steel base traders said that it was difficult to receive goods, and shipments were affected by traffic, making it difficult to find transportation vehicles.
3. World Steel Association: The global crude steel production in the first quarter was 456.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%. Asia and Oceania crude steel production in the first quarter was 331.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%. EU crude steel production in the first quarter was 36.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. North America's crude steel production in the first quarter was 28.1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. Russia and other CIS countries + Ukraine produced crude steel in the first quarter at 24 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%.
(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market.)
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coking coal coke
[Trading Strategy]
5 The main logic of the black series trading in May is the actual impact of the epidemic on steel demand and whether steel consumption can return as scheduled after the epidemic. The downward pressure on coal coke in recent years is large, mainly because on the one hand, the epidemic affects the consumption of materials, steel mills' profits shrink significantly, and market concerns negative feedback guide Coal coke prices are under pressure; on the other hand, the epidemic affects the upstream and downstream transportation of coal coke, and the production of black industry is passively adjusted; and the off-season of demand and May Day is approaching, many places have successively implemented the thermal coal policy to require prices. However, downstream coal coke inventory is still at a low level. If the epidemic improves, the probability of replenishing the demand for replenishment is high, and in the context of the country's economic stability and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coal coke still has buying value. In the later period, we will focus on the epidemic, national policies, and Mongolian coal customs clearance situation.
strategy: It is recommended to operate in a short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term low-level demand for replenishment remains, and it is recommended that coal coke still be used as a multi-level.
[Related price]
spot: Rizhao and Qingdao Port coke spot trade stock exchange out of stock: Quasi-first-level coke out of stock price 4010, estimated coke warehouse order 4311 yuan/ton. Hebei Tangshan Mongolia spot main coke 3240 yuan, single Mongolian coal warehouse order 3240 yuan.
[Important information]
1, [Fenwei Information] Coke news: Considering that the raw material prices have reached a temporary high point, coupled with the recent sharp decline in futures market, the price peak is gradually increasing, and the uncertainty of the impact of the epidemic on the terminal in the later stage, under the current situation of small profits or losses in steel mills, market participants, We will see more stability in the later stages, but with the support of steel mills' urgent need to replenish warehouses, the short-term coke market continues to be relatively strong. At present, Shanxi's quasi-first-level metallurgical coke is temporarily stable at 3,760 yuan/ton.
2. Handan has initiated lockdown management due to the epidemic, and transportation has once again fallen into a difficult situation. According to Mysteel survey, coking enterprises in Handan, Hebei have various levels of production restrictions of 30% to 60%. The raw material inventory of some coking enterprises has always been at a low level, and the supply of coke continues to be tight. In terms of steel mills, there are 14 steel mills in Handan City, , Handan City, , accounting for 11 in this lockdown area (Wuan), and pig iron production capacity accounts for about 38%. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market.)
Wang Yingying
Investment consulting practice certificate number: Z0014913
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Nickel and stainless steel
Feder is about to speed up tightening progress, U.S. bond yield climbing has caused concerns about economic recession, under the expectation that the Fed will speed up interest rate hike, Dollar index continues to rise, breaking through 101, and the trend of commodity is under pressure. Shanghai nickel has a relatively obvious decline due to its own systematic price correction. The price difference between the price of the industrial chain product and pure nickel continues to be high. Factory in the intermediate processing link is facing losses. Some companies have reduced production and even sold raw materials. At present, the upstream raw material side has also begun to give in, and the pressure of price decline continues to increase. However, due to the continued impact of the LME position squeeze incident, the weak fundamental situation has not dragged down futures prices, and Shanghai nickel has even emerged from six consecutive positives. This decline does not mean that the situation is completely over. There are still a large number of unsettled holding contracts in May. Although there is no upward momentum, there is still a certain price support. And LME on Friday The decline in nickel is lower than that of Shanghai nickel, and the Shanghai-London-London ratio fell below 6.8 again. It is more difficult to import under the background of tight domestic supply. The Shanghai nickel back structure continues to expand to the high before early March, indicating that the short-term tightening of refined nickel is still difficult to improve, but the price pressure in the future is relatively high. The turning signal still needs to confirm the improvement of Russian nickel imports and the turning point of global explicit inventory.
stainless steel followed the decline in nickel prices, but from the spot market, the spot price of 304 spot price runs at a high level, raw material prices remain high, steel mills and traders are more upbeatable, the price of 304 stainless steel fluctuates and hovers at the 20,000 mark, Wuxi logistics and transportation has not improved significantly, but the price is stable Under the state, downstream gradually enters the market for procurement, and the accumulated inventory of spot inventory in the market slows down. The current raw material side prices remain strong, and the cost support is high, waiting for the release of demand caused by the easing of the epidemic to reverse the situation. Especially the short-term breaking rebound is expected to be strong. You can refer to the cost side support to buy on lows and pay attention to the downstream inventory reserve rhythm before May Day. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry)
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copper
last Friday, closing at US$10,069/ton, down US$229/ton, a drop of 2.22%, and 957 lots were reduced to 264,000 lots. On the macro side, based on Reuters and Bloomberg, a document released by the British Ministry of Finance on the 22nd showed that the UK has authorized Gazpromise to Gazpromise Industrial Bank and its subsidiaries to pay Russian natural gas funds by the end of May. Fundamental aspects, there has been serious disruption on the mine side recently, with MMG Ltd's Las Bambas mine succumbing to community protests along with Cuajone of Southern Copper Corp., which will be shut down by about one-fifth of the country's copper production. Meanwhile, unions in the mineral-rich Cusco area are taking strikes against price increases, and residents near Glencore Copper Mine are preparing to resume protests. In the recent first quarter reports released by six mainstream mining companies, except for the rapid growth of new copper mines in Zijin and Freeport, the output of other mines has basically declined, and the output of the six major mining companies has almost no year-on-year growth. In the spot market, the circulation and logistics situation of the copper market have improved recently. The amount of warehouses in Shanghai has increased, the number of raw materials from other provinces has increased, the shortage of raw materials in downstream enterprises such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang has eased, the operating rate of large enterprises has increased, and after the copper price has fallen, the willingness of companies to buy is relatively strong, and the market transactions have improved. Last week, domestic social warehouses fell by 12,300 tons. This week is approaching May Day, and there is demand for inventory preparation downstream, and the market transaction activity may further increase next week. Although copper circulation in the spot market is still tight, supply and demand have improved. From the market perspective, the market has strong expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in early May, and the stock market and commodity market are weak. However, due to the large interference of the copper supply side, it is relatively strong among nonferrous metals, and the decline in copper prices is limited, and the operating range is expected to be between 72,500-75,500 yuan/ton. This week, under the expectations of downstream restocking, the back structure between Shanghai Copper 2205-2206 contracts may further expand, and the premium showed a higher trend.(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
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zinc
Shanghai zinc significantly reduced its positions and fell. The atmosphere of industrial products is weak
[Market Analysis]
Friday night trading Shanghai zinc opened high and closed low , opened high in the first half of the night and fluctuated and consolidated. After 23 o'clock, it reduced its positions and fell sharply. The Shanghai zinc index fell 2.45% at one point, and closed down 1.84% at night trading to 28,015 yuan/ton. According to technical indicators, the Shanghai zinc index fell below the lower support line of the 30-minute upward channel, and fell to the previous low of 27,800 and obtained support rebound. In terms of night trading market news, the UK has approved the passage of Russia before the end of May. Natural Gas Industrial Bank settles Russian natural gas . The EU claims that it is possible to use rubles to pay for natural gas while not violating the sanctions against Russia, so the European energy crisis is expected to alleviate a little; on the macro side, the domestic epidemic is severe, and in addition to the epidemic in Shanghai, Beijing has also found silent infection for more than a week, with more than 1,200 close contacts. In addition to the optimistic performance in early March, the peak demand season has basically been spent in the epidemic, and the sentiment is not optimistic. The Federal Reserve frequently released hawkish signals, the US dollar and US bonds rose, and the US dollar index has exceeded 101. Set a new high in stages, suppressing the price of non-ferrous metals ; supply is on the surface, data from the International Lead and Zinc Group shows that in February, the output of zinc concentrate was 1.02 million tons, the output of refined zinc was 1.109 million tons, and the cumulative output of refined zinc from January to February decreased by 52,000 tons year-on-year. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory is relatively low, but domestic social inventory has been higher than the same period in 2020, the highest level in the same period in recent years, and the pressure has emerged;
[Trading Strategy]
unilateral: near In the future, European electricity prices are basically stable, with a slight decline, and the support logic on the cost side declined; the logic on the supply side is currently relatively sufficient, and the logic on the demand side has begun to appear recently with the weak resonance of the demand side of the entire industrial product. After falling below the upward trend line in the short term, the price continues to be under pressure (the above views are for reference only and are not used as the basis for entry)
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aluminum
aluminum
industrial product resonance decline Shanghai aluminum increased its position and fell
[Market Analysis]
Friday night market Shanghai aluminum opened low and closed low, with a sharp increase in position and falling in the second half of the night. The weighted index closed down 1.71% to 21,525 yuan/ton, far lower than the average monthly settlement price of the trade market around 21,980.In addition to the weakening of the logical resonance of the demand for the entire industrial product, nonferrous metals are also affected by energy. The UK has approved the settlement of Russian natural gas through the Russian Natural Gas Industrial Bank before the end of May. The EU: While not violating the regulations on sanctions against Russia, it is possible to use rubles to pay for natural gas. Copper, zinc and aluminum have a greater impact (currently, a large number of Russian goods have been transferred to China, increasing supply); on the macro side, the domestic epidemic is severe. In addition to the continued epidemic in Shanghai, Beijing has also found silent infection for more than a week, with more than 1,200 close contacts. In addition to the optimistic performance in early March, the peak demand season has basically been spent in the epidemic; the Federal Reserve frequently released hawkish signals, the US dollar and US bonds rose, and the US dollar index has exceeded 101, setting a new high in the stage, suppressing nonferrous metal prices; In terms of demand, the spot market weakened last Friday. This Monday is the settlement date for the spot market at the end of the month. The market price is lower than the monthly average price, and this week is the stocking period before the long holiday. Monthly, the apparent demand in Shanghai aluminum in March and April is estimated to be 2.17% and -5.38% respectively. Judging from the inventory and out-of-stock data, the consumption prosperity in East China and South China is lower than the same period last year. Gongyi region benefits from the absence of epidemic pressure and hot export orders, and performs well. In terms of supply, the current production capacity has basically reached more than 40.5 million tons, the rapid production period has basically ended, and the subsequent production speed has slowed down. It is expected that the output of electrolytic aluminum in April will be 3.3 million tons, exceeding the level of the same period last year. However, considering the impact of imports, the total supply is expected to exceed the same period last year. At present, the factory warehouse and platform estimates The backlog exceeded 100,000 tons compared with the same period last year; Rusal entered the domestic market in March, and it is expected that it will still arrive one after another; in terms of cost, coal prices rebounded in the short term due to the influence of the Daqin line, but the overall situation is still under pressure, resulting in the short-term weakness of the cost;
[Trading Strategy]
unilateral: The pressure of the spread of the epidemic and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike to shrink the balance sheet suppressed market sentiment, and in the short term, Shanghai aluminum rebounded to the pressure level and peaked and fell. The trends of the industrial product index and nonferrous metals index currently show signs of downward adjustment. After the peak season of gold, three and four silversmiths fell, the overall environment showed signs of weakening, but Shanghai aluminum has the demand for stocking during the May Day holiday, and the overall situation is still in the view of range fluctuations. Point treatment (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
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precious metals
Last Friday, affected by the news, and precious metal prices fell. The US dollar index rose sharply, standing above the 101 mark; the 10-year US Treasury yield remained fluctuating around 2.9%. In terms of data, the initial value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in April was 59.7, a new high since September last year, higher than the expected 58.2; the initial value of the service industry PMI was 54.7, down from March, lower than the expected 58.
Last week, the UK Financial Sanctions Executive Office issued a license to allow payments to Gazprom and its subsidiaries by May 31 to ensure that the EU can continue to obtain natural gas. As soon as this news came out, market concerns about the energy crisis declined, causing precious metal prices to fall.
Federals, Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester said he supports a 50 basis point rate hike in May, and the Fed does not need to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. It is hoped to raise interest rates to a neutral level of around 2.5% by the end of the year, which requires several 50 basis points rate hikes. If inflation does not turn off, interest rates may be required above neutral levels.
At present, as the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting approaches, it is expected that there will be some pressure above precious metals. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)
Songyang
Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0000551
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Asphalt
[Taiwan Review]
BU06 contract closed at 3971 points yesterday (+0.08%), and closed at night 3933 points (-0.96%).
[Important Information]
Spot In terms of most refineries in North China, the shipment level of refineries is still acceptable, which has led to a decline in refineries' inventory levels. Currently, the shipment price of traders in the district is 3,690-3,700 yuan/ton; some local refiners in Shandong have increased production today, and the supply of resources in the district has increased. Recently, some refineries in the district have delivered expired contracts, which has led to a significant decline in the inventory level of refineries in the district. , Yangtze River Delta, market demand is average, but with the control and easing of the epidemic, most refineries shipped relatively stable, and considering the support of production costs, the mainstream transaction prices of asphalt have stabilized. (Hundred Rivers). Currently, Shandong asphalt spot 3680-3780, East China spot 3850-3980, South China spot 3900-4000.
refined oil benchmark price: Shandong local refining 92# gasoline +177 to 8691, 0# diesel +32 to 8268.
[Trading Strategy]
North China Shandong and South China has improved recently, refinery destocking is relatively smooth, and the supply level is relatively low, and the asphalt supply and demand structure has improved marginally. The cost side crude oil is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, the upward trend of futures prices is limited, the spot price is relatively strong, and the basis is likely to gradually strengthen, but attention should be paid to the impact of northern epidemic control on demand and logistics. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
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crude oil
[Traffic review]
WTI2206 contract 1 02.07 fell 1.72 USD/barrel or 1.66%; Brent2206 contract 106.65 fell 1.68 USD/barrel or 1.55%. SC2206 rose 6.8 to 680.9 yuan/barrel, and the night trading fell 19.8 to 661.1 yuan/barrel for the first time Brent showed a monthly difference of 0.12 to 0.48 USD/barrel.
[Important Information]
Geo-related, Ukrainian President adviser said that U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin arrived in Kiev to meet with Zelensky. People familiar with the matter revealed that the United States and the EU discussed some measures to reduce European oil imports to Russia
supply and demand. According to Bloomberg , China's crude oil consumption in April fell year-on-year Nearly 20%, a drop of 1.2 million barrels per day, a decrease of 9% compared to the average demand for the whole year last year. The 30 million barrels of crude oil war reserves released by the United States recently were bid by 12 oil companies and are expected to be delivered between May and July. Valero, the largest buyer, received nearly 7 million barrels of oil war reserves.
Macro, Macron defeated Le Pen , winning The second French presidential term was won. The euro rose after Macron won the election. The president of the Cleveland Fed supports "orderly" interest rate hikes and opposes adding 75 basis points at one time. The interest rate swap market price shows that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in each of the next four meetings.
[Trading Strategy]
The impact of European and American markets on Russian energy products has gradually weakened, Coupled with the current weak demand and the strong background of the macro interest rate hike expectations, oil prices have lacked momentum. From the micro data, downstream refined oil, especially European diesel and other components, have high price differences, and the short-term structural problems of oil products have not been resolved for the time being, and the uncertainty of the war is still large, and oil prices lack trend direction guidance. It is expected to still fluctuate at high levels in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in operation. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
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fuel oil
[Trade Re-Talent]
FU09 contract closed at 4006 points yesterday (-3.00%), and closed at 4036 points (+3.75 %)
LU07 contract closed at 5167 points (+0.29%) yesterday, closed at 5123 points (-0.85%)
Singapore market, low-sulfur fuel oil spot 813.62 US dollars/ton, high-sulfur fuel oil spot 659.47 US dollars/ton, high-low-low-sulfur price difference 154 US dollars/ton, low-sulfur-diesel price difference -311 US dollars/ton. In terms of monthly difference, the low sulfur difference between May and June is US$21.50/ton, and the high sulfur difference between May and June is US$16.25/ton.
[Important Information]
Singapore spot market, BP sold to Sinopec Hong Kong company 20,000 tons of 0.5% sulfur content of marine fuel oil loaded from May 16 to 20, a barrel of USD 22.00 higher than the Singapore quotation.Tok sold 20,000 tons of marine fuel oil for shipments from May 6 to 10 to Gonwall, which was 0.5% sulfur-containing marine fuel oil, each tonne, was $20.00 higher than the Singapore offer.
[Trading Strategy]
In terms of internal trading , FU09's internal and external price difference is 20 US dollars/ton, and LU07's internal and external price difference is 21 US dollars/ton. The valuation of the internal market is high, and overseas high and low sulfur fuel oils have certain structural short-term problems. The unilateral side is not as strong as gasoline and diesel, and the cracking is relatively weak, but the back structure is strong in recent months and month-to-month difference, and the overall operation is relatively strong. The unilateral price of the internal market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the high-low sulfur price difference is expected to narrow slightly. (The above views are for reference only and will not be used as a basis for entering the market)
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pulp
[Review of the previous day]
futures market: falling at a high level. SP main 09 contract closed at 7150 points, down -150 points or -2.05%.
spot wood pulp market: mountain The supply of imported broadleaf pulp in the eastern region is stable, the market fluctuates and consolidates in a narrow range, and the high price is average. The market part of the tax-inclusive reference price: parrots and goldfish 5950-6000 yuan/ton, and other eucalyptus broadleaf pulp is 5950 yuan/ton. The spot market of imported needle pulp in Shandong has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the source of goods for sale and pre-sale continues to be tight. Market tax-inclusive reference price: Kunhe 5400 yuan/ton, crystal 5300 yuan/ton. ( Zhuochuang Information )
Spot domestic paper: Jiangsu Prince Paper produces wood pulp domestic paper, and currently implements self-plugs and tax-included factory: The large shaft for spraying wood pulp silo rolls is 7,400 yuan/ton, and the large shaft for facial towels is 7,600 yuan/ton. Henan Luohe Juyuan Paper mainly produces medium and high-end sanitary paper base paper and hand-paper base paper, with "Juyuan" as the main brand. At present, transportation is still not smooth and there is a lack of actual orders. Reference for the preliminary quotation: The self-drawing of the large shaft for spraying wood pulp is now remitted from the factory to 7,400 yuan/ton, and the reference for plate paper is 7,600 yuan/ton. (Zhuo Chuang Information)
[Important Information]
cited global printing and packaging industry news: Week April 22 5. The Finnish Paperworkers Union announced to mediator Leo Soma that it will unanimously approve the settlement proposal for five business operations under UPM Huichuan and serve as a new company-specific collective agreement. The Finnish Paperworkers Union said that UPM Huichuan's related companies have also accepted the settlement. The new agreement is valid for four years, which is from now until April 21, 2026. The Finnish Paperworkers Union stated that the salary increase "follows the industry's common '2+2' model, that is, renegotiating the salary increase in two years." "The main goal of the Finnish Paperworkers Union in negotiations is to maintain the industry's working conditions consistent in the current company-specific agreement model. For UPM, this goal is the most difficult to achieve. The essential result is that broad damage regulations required by employers, such as the increase in unpaid working hours, i.e., working hours, are not achieved. "UPMU Huichuan's strike action at the pulp and paper mill located in Finland started on January 1 and lasted for more than 110 days. Finally, a new proposal to resolve the strike was submitted on April 21.
[Trading Strategy]
As of last Friday, SP inventory futures closed at 557,200 tons, weekly destocking -0.4% and year-on-year warehouse +400.5%. The main SP09 contract was short at the opportunity, and it is advisable to set a stop loss at the recent high of 7340 points. (The above views are for reference only, Not as the basis for entering the market)
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natural rubber and No. 20 rubber
[Review of the previous day]
RU Related: RU main force 09 contract closed at 12935 points, down -80 points or -0.61%; Japan's main force 09 contract closed at 255.0 points, down -6.4 points or -2.45%. As of 12:00 on the day before yesterday, Yunnan WF closed at 12,500-12,550 yuan/ton, the second landmark closed at 11,800-12,000 yuan/ton, Thailand cigarette sheets closed at 15,200-16,100 yuan/ton, and Vietnam 3L closed at 12,600-12,800 yuan/ton.
NR related: NR main force 06 contract closed at 10,910 points, down -50 points or -0.46%; Singapore main force completed the monthly exchange, and TF07 contract closed at 166.1 points, down -3.6 points or -2.12%. As of 18:00 the day before yesterday, the market price of USD rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by 20-50 USD/ton.The cargo of cigarettes closed at US$2020-2030/ton, the spot in the Thai standard area closed at US$1710-1720/ton, the spot in the Horse standard or near-port cargo of ships closed at US$1705-1715/ton, and the mixed spot or near-port cargo of ships closed at US$1720-1730/ton.
synthetic glue related: North China butadiene 1502 quoted 11900-12000 yuan/ton. Sinopec's North China Qilu Shunding price was 14,000 yuan/ton. The price of East China butadiene is 9,800-9,900 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
cited by Xiaoxiang Morning News: Recently, Zhongtian Iron and Steel Group (Huai'an) New Materials Co., Ltd.'s ultra-high strength fine steel cord project obtained the Jiangsu Province investment project registration certificate. On April 10, the groundbreaking ceremony of the first pile of the project was held and officially entered the substantive construction stage. The investment scale of Zhongtian Huaian boutique steel cord project reached 20.2 billion yuan, which is one of the few major projects in the tire and rubber products skeleton materials industry in recent years. The total land area of this project is about 2716.8 mu, of which 1060.7 mu of land is used in the first phase, 770.6 mu of land is used in the second phase, and 885.5 mu of land is used in the third phase. The construction projects are mainly built with 6 branches, technical R&D centers, office buildings, and corresponding logistics support rooms, with a total construction area of about 1.45 million square meters. After the project is completed, it will have an annual production capacity of 1.3 million tons of ultra-high strength fine steel cords and 200,000 tons of bead wire.
[Trading Strategy]
Thailand did not have much rain last week, and the average daily rainfall of production weighted rainfall closed at 3.63mm, with the cumulative rainfall marginally decreasing for the second consecutive week. As of last Friday: RU inventory subtotal closed 262,200 tons, 14,000 tons higher than inventory futures, with a weekly (relative) growth rate of +7.8%; NR inventory subtotal closed 101,800 tons, with a weekly destocking of -5.3% on the weekly destocking. The RU09 contract is waiting and watching, pay attention to the support at the early low of 12880 points, buy put options near near 13000 points and hold ; the NR06 contract is waiting and watching. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
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methanol
[Taiwan Review]
[Taiwan Recap]
Last Friday during the day, the overall sentiment of the commodity was sluggish, most commodities further pulled back, methanol spot prices in many regions were lowered, and the main futures contract fluctuated downward. At night, the market continued to decline due to the continued sluggishness of the commodity, and finally closed at 2808 (-0.38%).
[Spot Quotes]
production site, the southern line of Inner Mongolia is quoted 2480 yuan/ton, the northern line is quoted 2400 yuan/ton. Guanzhong is quoted 2530 yuan/ton, the northern part of Shaanxi is quoted 2500 yuan/ton, Shanxi is quoted 2530 yuan/ton, Henan is quoted 2700 yuan/ton.
consumption site, Shandong is quoted market quotation 2850 yuan/ton, Shandong is quoted 2780 yuan/ton, Hebei is quoted 2750 yuan/ton.
southwest region, Sichuan and Chongqing is quoted 2680 yuan/ton, Yunnan and Guizhou is quoted 2750 yuan/ton.
southwest region, Sichuan and Chongqing is quoted 2680 yuan/ton, Yunnan and Guizhou is quoted 2680 yuan/ton, Shandong is quoted 2780 yuan/ton, Henan is quoted 2750 yuan/ton.
southwest region, Sichuan and Chongqing is quoted 2680 yuan/ton, Yunnan and Guizhou is quoted Quotation is 2,600 yuan/ton.
port, the futures market fluctuated and weakened, the basis is stable, the market price in Taicang area is 2,820 yuan/ton, Ningbo area is 2,940 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou area is 2,880 yuan/ton.
[Important information]
As of April 22, 2022, the arrival volume of methanol samples in China was 323,700 tons, up 41,500 tons from last week, up 14.71% month-on-month. Starting from the late month, the density of ship freight plans in coastal areas, especially in East China, increased by more than 14.71%, and the increase of cargo plan on coastal areas, especially in East China, has increased and dispersed, and the unloading volume has increased month-on-month.
[Trading Strategy]
Recently, the current coal prices in the production area have continued to be weak, the epidemic is gradually showing a spreading trend, industrial demand continues to be weak, and domestic output has been in a growth trend, and the range price limit policy will be implemented after May, coal prices may be further lowered, and production costs will gradually decline. The profit from coal to methanol in Inner Mongolia remains above 200 yuan/ton, and the maintenance scale is difficult to increase. Some companies in the early maintenance and production reduction will have expectations for recovery next week, and there are not many maintenance equipment counted next week, which may lead to an increase in the market capacity utilization rate next week. It is expected that the supply in the mainland market is relatively abundant.Overall, regional differentiation of methanol may intensify, and the supply in the mainland market is still abundant. Although some downstreams have May Day inventory demand, the space above the terminal product prices is limited, the acceptance of high prices is low, and the overall demand support is limited; in terms of ports, inventory recovery is lower than expected, MTO single and comprehensive profits have further improved, the MTO operating rate continues to maintain a historical high level, and the downstream methanol inventory is not high, the fundamentals of port supply and demand are relatively healthy, and there are certain arbitrage opportunities for inland port price spreads. It is expected that the market price of methanol ports in the short term will be mainly fluctuated, and the inland will continue to fluctuate weakly. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to crude oil and coal prices and market transportation. (The above views are for reference only, not for market entry)
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urea
Over the weekend, the spot market in major domestic regions has risen steadily. The low-priced factory warehouse in Henan Province is referenced 2880-2900 yuan/ton, and the market price in Linyi, Shandong is referenced 2960 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, the recent advancement of rice fertilizer preparation in southern China and other places in Xinjiang, Some summer pipe fertilizer reserves are still being purchased; the operating rate of compound fertilizers is temporarily stable, and the replacement effect on urea has declined when the prices of ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate are high; non-agricultural industries are mainly purchased on demand, and the production of rubber sheet factories in some areas is still negatively affected by the epidemic, and the operating rate is relatively low. The recent increase in export orders in many places has also supported the market. At the same time, the domestic production end is still relatively stable. Last week, the daily output was 167,900 tons, up 3,800 tons month-on-month and up 14,700 tons year-on-year.
In the short term, the factory pre-collection is relatively high In order to be sufficient, the mentality of price support is strong, while export rumors continue to change and policy changes, the huge domestic and foreign price difference has also increased the imagination space for domestic trade prices to rise, and the market may continue to be strong. In the medium and long term, domestic supply guarantee policies may continue, with seasonal agricultural demand and weak urea cost support. If the export policy is not completely relaxed, we believe that the room for market price increases may be relatively limited. Considering the uncertainty of export policies, at the current basis level, trading investors are recommended to wait and see for the time being. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
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thermal coal
[Taiwan Review]
Last Friday during the day, the spot sentiment of the Bohai Rim port market further weakened, traders' quotations were lowered, and the main contract of thermal coal futures fluctuated mainly in a narrow range. At night, the market fluctuated mainly in a wide range with the black system, and finally closed at 821.2 (0%).
[Spot Quotes]
port market continues to operate weakly. Some traders said that no one answered the price at high prices, and there is cost support for the price at low prices, so the quotation was suspended. As far as we have learned, the overall quotation continues to decline. The mainstream quotation in the 5500 big card market is 1170-1200 yuan/ton, the mainstream quotation in the 5000 big card market is 980-1020 yuan/ton. Some traders say that the terminal has received an upstream 5000 big card quotation of 950 yuan/ton, and the market quotation of 4500 big card market is 840-890 yuan/ton. It is understood that due to concerns that coal mines will implement new long-term contract prices after May 1st, the price will fall sharply and the market's willingness to ship is enhanced; some traders are also unwilling to ship at low prices under cost support. A trader said that a downstream 4,500 big kcal bids are 860 yuan/ton, and shipments are not considered for the time being. In addition, the port has re-entered the storage accumulation state, but the supply of goods previously hoarded by traders has basically been cleared, and the railway capacity is tight, and the number of goods available for sale in the market is limited. Currently, retail investors in most markets are uncertain about the future market trend. In order to avoid risks, they are cautious in shipping. Some traders say that there is profit margin for 4,500 trucks shipped to the port, but because the new long-term contract price was implemented in May, they dare not stock up on the platform.
[Important Information]
Yidong Coal Mine Notice: It will be executed at 12:00 noon on April 24, 2022, 49 yuan, 38 yuan, and the mixed block will be increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price will be subject to the pounds of heavy trucks! .
Shengkai Coal Mine: 38 yuan lowered by 50 and the current price is 930; seed coal is lowered by 50 and the current price is 930, and will be implemented at 12:30 on April 24, 2022.
[Trading Strategy]
The number of coal mines in Ordos area increased to 243, new production capacity continued to be released, output rebounded to around 2.7 million tons, sales volume was 2.4 million tons, pit outlets continued to accumulate warehouses, pit outlet prices in Inner Mongolia continued to fall, Yulin area was supported by strong coal, and pit outlet prices were firm. The Daqin Railway has been reopened to traffic, with the traffic volume increasing to 1.28 million tons, the impact of the accident has basically disappeared, the number of 35 vehicles in the city has been 35, the port transfer has rebounded to more than 1.4 million tons, and the inventory has been accumulated to 18 million tons. At present, the daily consumption of coastal power plants continues to decline, the accumulation of warehouses is accelerating, the pace of market procurement slows down, the only procurement volume is significantly lower than the price, and there are few transactions in the market. The price of 5500K in the port spot market has fallen again to around 1,150 yuan/ton, and the traders' quotations have further downward trend. In addition, the Daqin Railway has restored its transportation capacity. At the same time, on the weekend, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Yulin areas announced point-to-point supply guarantee policies, and the number of power plant managers' cooperation will further increase. It is expected that the spot market will mainly weaken steadily. At the operational level, due to the strict current policy control, futures participants have left the market to avoid risks, the market fluctuates narrowly, and policy risks are intensifying, so we should wait and see for the time being. Pay close attention to policy regulation. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
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PTA
[Taiwan Resuming]
last Friday PTA2209 main contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 6168 (-60/-0.96%) on the day trading, closing at 6154 (-14/-0.23%) on the night trading; PTA2205 closed at 6194 (-44/-0.71%) on the day trading, closing at 6182 (-12/-0.1 9%). The spot basis strengthened. Last Friday, the main port supply TA09 contract plus 55 transactions, the transaction price was 6225-6340, and yesterday, the main port supply basis was 09 contract plus 80. In May, the MOPJ was negotiated at US$913-915/ton CFR, and the PX estimated at US$1192/ton CFR (-17/-1.4%).
[Important Information]
1. As of last Friday, the domestic operating rate of PX was 67.7%, a week-on-month increase of 0.4%, PTA's domestic operating rate was 72.1%, a week-on-month increase of 3%, a week-on-month increase of 79.9%, and a week-on-month increase of 0.3%. Polyester The average inventory days of filament were 33.2 days, up 0.63 days on the weekly month-on-month, and the average inventory days of polyester staple fiber were 12.8 days, which remained unchanged month-on-month.
2. Sichuan Energy Investment 1 million tons PTA device restarted, and Sinopec's 1.2 million tons PTA device planned to restart today. Yisheng New Materials 3.6 million tons PTA device fell to 50% yesterday.
3. Yesterday, the production and sales of polyester fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average of 30% above, and the average production and sales of straight-spinned polyester is 25%.
[Trading Strategy]
TA supply side is tight and the basis strengthens, supply and demand The supply and demand in April-May were relatively balanced in April-May, and the transactions improved under the atmosphere of replenishment before the holiday, the load of polyester increased slightly, and the price was greatly affected by the cost side. (The above views are for reference only, not as a basis for entering the market)
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PF
PF
[Taiwan Review]
last Friday the center of gravity of the main contract of PF2206 fell, closing at 7872 (-120/-1.5%) on the day trading and closing at 7886 (+14/+0.18%) on the night trading. In terms of spot, Jiangsu and Zhejiang semi-optical 1.4D mainstream 7950-8100/ton will be shipped out of the factory or short-term delivery, Fujian semi-optical 1.4D mainstream 8000-8050 yuan/ton will be delivered short-term delivery, Shandong and Hebei will be delivered 8000-8150 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
1. As of last Friday, the operating rate of polyester staple fiber was 63.2%, a week-on-month increase of 1.7%, the inventory of staple fiber was 12.8 days, the week-on-month remained the same, the operating rate of pure polyester yarn was 65.5%, a week-on-month increase of 0.5%, the inventory of pure polyester yarn finished products was 20.5 days, a week-on-month increase of 1.5 days, and the inventory of raw materials in polyester yarn mills was 8.7 days, a week-on-month decrease of 1.4 days.
2. Yesterday, the average production and sales of direct spinning and polyester were 25%.
[Trading Strategy]
Short fiber processing fee rebounded, some devices restarted, the operating rate rebounded month-on-month, and the market circulation source was tight, and the factory was in a strong desire to support prices. The raw material inventory of downstream polyester mills was relatively low. When the epidemic situation improved, the expected inventory replenishment was expected, and the price of short fiber followed the trend of the raw material end. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
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MEG
[Taiwan Review]
last Friday's main contract of EG2209 futures fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 5067 on the day's trading session, unchanged month-on-month, and closed at 5044 (-23/-0.45%) on the night trading session.The EG2205 contract closed at 4952 (+22/+0.45%) on the day and closed at 4936 (-16/-0.32%) on the night trading. In terms of spot, the intraday transaction price of MEG yesterday was 4930-4945 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
1. As of last Friday, the overall construction load of domestic ethylene glycol was 63.12%, a week-on-month decrease of 1.83%, and the MEG coal-to-operated operating rate was 60.75%, a week-on-month increase of 1%.
2. The 360,000 tons/year MEG device in South Asia, the United States has recently restarted. The parking time of another 830,000 tons/year new device was postponed to early May. A 120,000 tons/year syngas production glycol device in Inner Mongolia is planned to be stopped and repaired in mid-May, with an estimated duration of about 10-15 days.
[Trading Strategy]
MEG is low in valuation and low in operation, Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance supply side tightened, RMB depreciation, domestic and foreign market inverted import volume is expected to be low, downstream polyester load has increased slightly, MEG port unloading rate is low, inventory pressure remains, and prices are weak and fluctuating. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
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EB
[Taiwan Review]
last Friday EB2206 fluctuated weakly, closing at 9765 (+9/+0.09%) on the day's trading session and closing at 9664 (-101/-1.03%) on the night trading session. Spot prices are sorted, Jiangsu styrene self-picking price is 9750-9 800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton month-on-month, the self-plugging price of styrene in South China was 9850 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the self-plugging price of styrene in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei market was 9600-9700 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton month-on-month. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 8600-8630 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton month-on-month. Last Friday, the CFR China styrene market closed at US$1335-1340/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the closing price of CFR China pure benzene market was 1175-1195 US$/ton (+10/+0.8%).
[Important Information]
styrene operating rate last week was 76.86%, up 3.62% on the week, up 2.62%, up 2.96% on the week, up 9.96% on the week, up 65.94%, up 2.34% on the week, up 76.54%, up 2.52% on the week.
[Trading Strategy]
pure benzene market short-short demand, price is strong, last week, pick-up increased styrene and upstream pure benzene port inventory fell, styrene downstream operating rate collectively rebounded, benzene Ethylene cost support, improved shipments, and low valuation. Short-term price support is strong. (The above views are for reference only and are not based on entering the market)
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plastic
market review:
last Friday, with L2209 closing at 8872 points, down 0.93%, and L2209 closing at 8770 points, down 1.15% or 102 points.
Spot market:
Yesterday, the price of the LLDPE market was loose. The linear part of the North China region fell 50 yuan/ton; the linear part of the East China region fell 30-50 yuan/ton; the linear part of the South China region fell 20-50 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is between 8,800-9,250 yuan/ton.
Important information:
1) Yesterday (April 24), a PE parking ratio of 20%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points month-on-month, and a linear production ratio of 31.24%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points month-on-month.
2) Last week, PE destocking was reduced, and the total inventory dropped by 53,000 tons to 969,500 tons, of which 48,000 tons were two oil destocked, 1,000 tons of coal chemical industry cumulative warehouses, 4,000 tons of traders destocked, and 3,000 tons of port destocked.
Trading Strategy:
PE oil system loss, import inverted, and valuation is relatively low. Demand is weak under the influence of the epidemic, and the current focus is still on the epidemic and is weak in the short term. But production cuts are still supported. On the supply side, maintenance losses from April to May are still high. There are no new devices put into production in the second quarter of PE, and the import increase is limited. Demand is likely to improve after the subsequent epidemic control, and it will go long at lows in the medium term. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
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PVC
market review:
PVC fell last Friday, V2209 closed at 8815 points, down 2.27% or 205 points, and night trading V2209 closed at 8730 points, down 0.96% or 85 points.
Spot market:
The market opened at the weekend, and the quotes were mostly maintained at Friday's closing price. The five-type mainstream price of the Changzhou PVC market was around 8900, and some merchants had a higher spot price of 8950-9050; the price of the 38th type remained low, and the mainstream was in the range of 9200-9250; the sales of ethylene method were light, and the mainstream price remained around 9400, and the prices of some brands were lower.
Important information:
1) Longzhong Information, Longzhong Data, the total inventory of 48 companies this week was 294,100 tons, a decrease of 0.34% (1,000 tons) month-on-month and an increase of 143.39% (173,300 tons) year-on-year. This week, PVC social inventory is estimated to be 327,000 tons, an increase of 0.46% (1,500 tons) month-on-month and 36.65% (87,700 tons) year-on-year; among them, the East China region was 256,000 tons, an increase of 2.20% (5,500 tons) month-on-month and 49.45% (84,700 tons) year-on-year
Trading strategy:
currently has a high profit of PVC, a low profit of calcium carbide, and a high valuation of PVC. Currently, PVC starts at a high level, demand is greatly affected by the epidemic, and the start of construction has dropped by about 19 percentage points compared with previous years. The upstream inventory pressure is high, and the short-term fundamentals are relatively short. In the medium term, the new PVC production capacity is limited, and there are still orders for exports on the demand side. After the subsequent epidemic is controlled, demand is expected to be filled. In addition, the downward pressure on the economy is high, and the expectations of infrastructure and stable real estate are still strong. In the medium term, the bullish direction remains unchanged.
(the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
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PP
market review:
PP fell yesterday, PP2209 closed at 8754 points, down 1.21% or 107 points, and night trading PP2209 closed at 864 6 points, down 1.23% or 108 points.
Spot market:
yesterday, partially weakened, with an amplitude of 50 yuan/ton. Traders gave in favors, and the spot quotation fell slightly. The downstream intention to receive goods is not high, so they should be cautious when purchasing on demand, and the actual trading negotiations are mainly carried out. The mainstream price of wire drawing in North China is 8600-8650 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of wire drawing in East China is 8650-8800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of wire drawing in South China is 8800-8950 yuan/ton .
Important information:
1) Yesterday (April 24) PP parking ratio was 12.54%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points month-on-month, and a drawing ratio of 34.54%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points month-on-month.
2) Last week, PP inventory was destocked, and the total inventory fell by 47,000 tons to 484,300 tons, of which two oil destocked 40,000 tons, coal chemical destocked 5,000 tons, traders destocked 2,000 tons, and port inventory remained stable. html l2
Trading Strategy:
oil-based profit, PDH profit loss, import inverted, PP valuation is relatively low. Demand performance is weak under the influence of the epidemic, downstream construction has declined, the current focus is still the epidemic, and the short-term weak. On the supply side, maintenance is still long from April to May, downstream raw material inventory is currently at a low level in the same period, and downstream construction is also at a low level in the same period. After the epidemic is controlled, the expected demand will improve, and the medium-term is relatively long. (The above views are for reference only, not as a basis for entering the market)
