Zhitong Finance APP learned that the Indonesian rupiah may fall to its lowest level in nearly two years as Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports exacerbates the adverse effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. The Indonesian rupiah fell to a one-year low last week desp

2025/04/1917:23:35 hotcomm 1622

Zhitong Finance APP learned that the Indonesian rupiah may fall to its lowest level in nearly two years as Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports exacerbates the adverse impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.

Despite the Indonesian central bank's guarantees that the exchange rate will be stabilized, the Indonesian rupiah fell to a one-year low last week. The Indonesian rupiah has recently hovered around 1 USD to 14,635 rupiah, which is the low in April 2021; if the Indonesian rupiah against the USD rate falls below this level, it may further fall to the low in September 2020 (i.e., 1 USD to 14,950 rupiah), because there is almost no major technical support between the two lows.

Zhitong Finance APP learned that the Indonesian rupiah may fall to its lowest level in nearly two years as Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports exacerbates the adverse effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. The Indonesian rupiah fell to a one-year low last week desp - DayDayNews

Divya Devesh, head of Forex Research at Standard Chartered Bank ASEAN and South Asia, said investors are paying attention to further export restrictions and rising demand for the US dollar. He expects that the Indonesian rupiah to depreciate against the US dollar from 14,613 US dollars last Friday to 14,800 US dollars against 14,800 US dollars by the end of June. As of press time, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is 14,615.61 rupiah.

Zhitong Finance APP learned that the Indonesian rupiah may fall to its lowest level in nearly two years as Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports exacerbates the adverse effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. The Indonesian rupiah fell to a one-year low last week desp - DayDayNews

Goldman Sachs expects palm oil to account for 1.5% of Indonesia's GDP in 2021, and if palm oil is not exported, the country's monthly exports may drop by US$2 billion. The export ban began implementation on April 28. Investors will pay attention to Indonesia's April trade data released this week and wait for May data to be released before seeing the damage to exports.

Meanwhile, the Indonesian central bank's pace of rate hikes is expected to lag behind the Fed. The Indonesian central bank said last week that Indonesia's core inflation rate (the bank's favored decision-making indicator) accelerated to 3.47% in April, but was still in a controllable range.

Due to different interest rate trends, foreign funds have sold about US$4 billion in Indonesian bonds this year. Indonesia's weak bond auctions last week highlighted a weaker investor interest in the country's fixed-income bonds.

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