Last Friday, US stock fell sharply again. Although it was not as fierce as a thousand-point plunge, it was already three consecutive negatives in the daily K-line. As shown in the figure, the recent trend of US stocks is indeed very dim. Since the adjustment and decline on August 17, it has fallen by about 4,600 points, an amplitude of about 14%. Especially the sharp drop of 1,000 points on August 26 and September 21, it has defeated the confidence of the bulls and showed a cliff-like diving trend. It is expected that US stocks will fall along the trend in the last week of September, approaching and falling below the 29,000 point mark. This time, it will be difficult to turn around for a long time.
Dow Jones Index -week K-line, it has fallen sharply for two consecutive weeks. As shown in the figure, the third big negative line is currently missing, forming three crows flying all the way down. It is very likely that this third crow will be produced in the last week of September. Once a downward trend is formed, the downward space of US stocks will be opened, and the lowest can be seen 25,000 points. The expected decline in the future is very large. This will bring A shares into the ditch. It is not ruled out that A shares fall below 3,000 points, and second bottoming out will occur. Global stock markets closed a significant large negative line in this September, which may completely defeat the rebound momentum at the end of the year.
html January K-line , the Dow Jones Index also has two consecutive big negative lines. As shown in the figure, the third big negative line is missing. If a third big negative line appears, three crows will fly down on the monthly K-line chart, and the market will deteriorate greatly. Conservatively estimated that the Dow Jones Index may not be able to stop it. The worst case scenario is that the Dow Jones Index fell by half, and from the highest point of 36952.65, it is 18500 points, which will roughly reach the 20,000 point mark. The key is that the bulls are now in a collapse of confidence and there is no chance of rebound. They can only wait for the decline.
Comprehensive analysis shows that the US stock market will have big legs in the future, that is, a thousand-point plunge will appear, and will further run downward and gradually fall below the important integer mark. At the end of the year, it will be 25,000 points. There may be support nearby. Any long resistance above is futile and ineffective. The bears have the advantage and will further smash the market downward. Due to the stimulus of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike , retail investors in the US stock market have been defeated and the bears have reached a historical high. Therefore, the US stock market will continue to decline, and will definitely bring A-shares into the ditch, resulting in a deep decline.
A shares are currently in a period of low interest rates, and there are some positive factors supporting them, but these support is very limited. Before the holiday, it is selling and withdrawing investment, and it may not necessarily reverse after the holiday. Under the impact of the continuous decline of US stocks, A-shares cannot stabilize. They can only follow the US stocks step by step, and it is very likely to fall below 3,000 points again, and a second bottoming out. This time the main reason is the impact of the external stock market, and there are also endogenous factors, but not the main one. On the contrary, there are many positive factors among the endogenous factors, but they cannot be exerted and can only fall under the negative impact of the peripheral.
This year is a very high risk year. Since hit bottom in April, rebounded, the external factors are mainly the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. This is unavoidable in the era of globalization. Endural factors also have an adverse side, mainly because the epidemic continues to recur. Although the economy recovers very quickly, under the unfavorable situation of the epidemic, the stock market has recurred. Coupled with the negative external shocks, there are three consecutive months of declines. At the earliest, we have to wait after October 1, which may be significantly improved at that time. A-shares may have a counterattack. There will be 5 trading days before that, it will be impossible to reverse.
