The 18th round of domestic refined oil price adjustment has just ended, the price of gasoline and diesel has been reduced by about 0.22 yuan to 0.26 yuan per liter. No. 92, 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel have achieved the "seventh decline" this year. The cost of car owners filling a box of gasoline has been significantly lowered. my country's oil prices have entered a new stage. No. 95 gasoline has fully returned to the "8 yuan era", and No. 0 diesel prices have re-entered the "7 yuan era". Of course, the reduction in oil prices has been beneficial to many aspects, including actively promoting the reduction of operating costs of the real economy and reducing the cost of daily driving.
As the domestic oil price adjustment has just ended, the next round of refined oil pricing statistics cycle has begun. According to data, the crude oil change rate on the first working day was -2.65%, which means that the predicted decline in oil prices exceeded the 100 yuan/ton mark, specifically 115 yuan/ton, which is much higher than the price adjustment red line and is fully in line with the standards of lowering. Therefore, oil prices are still in a downward state. According to the current oil price forecast, for the next round of oil price adjustment, when the decline exceeds 100 yuan/ton on the first working day, the next round of price adjustment may achieve a decline, which may achieve the "eighth decline" this year.
In addition, since the new round of pricing statistics cycle has just begun, and the specific price adjustment window opens at 24:00 on October 10, therefore, it is currently a long time to adjust oil prices, and fluctuations and changes during the period are normal. Therefore, the current oil price forecast reduction is for reference only, but from the expected decline of oil prices exceeding 100 yuan/ton, it can be seen that the market's concerns about oil demand still exist, the prospect of global economic growth is not optimistic, and negative factors still occupy the upper hand, so the beginning of this round of pricing statistics cycle continues to decline.
Secondly, it is converted into liters. The current expected reduction in oil prices is 0.07 yuan/liter-0.09 yuan/liter. According to ordinary private cars, car owners spend 3.5 yuan to 4.5 yuan less to fill a box of 50L gasoline, and the overall operation is in a reasonable range. This is only the reference data for the first working day of this round of pricing cycle. Therefore, it plays a role for reference only, but it also further shows that bears have the upper hand, and the next round of oil price adjustment may decline, and the overall downward trend continues.
In the overseas market, the high inflation of makes it possible for major economies dominated by the United States to raise interest rates, which will further push up the trend of the US dollar and then suppress the price of commodities futures, mainly crude oil. At the same time, European developed economies have started a cycle of "radical interest rate hikes" or even "violent interest rate hikes", which has led to a heated market panic, accelerated the sale of crude oil futures, and pushed international oil prices to fall sharply.
On September 21, international oil prices continued to fall, Brent crude oil futures prices fell below the $90/barrel mark, and the market's high concerns about weak demand were prominent. Specifically, as of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1 to close at $82.94 per barrel, a drop of 1.19%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures delivered in November fell by $0.79 to close at $89.83 per barrel, a drop of 0.87%. The negative impact of concerns about the global recession on oil prices may exceed the positive impact of lower crude oil supply than expected, and negative impact has gained the upper hand in the bulls and bears game.
In other words, The United States' determination to curb high inflation will inevitably restrict economic growth. The current slowdown in the US economic growth rate has become a fact. With the expectation of the Federal Reserve to continue hiking interest rates in , the growth rate of overseas market economy may be difficult to improve. Correspondingly, the supply side is also in a tight state.
To sum up, according to the latest news, there is currently a strong concern for the global recession in , and the market's concerns about oil demand continue to spread. Combined with the changes in domestic refined oil prices, the next round of oil price adjustment may decline, because the crude oil change rate on the first working day is -2.65%, and the oil price drop exceeds 100 yuan/ton, which is obviously in line with the lowered standards.
