According to the price adjustment schedule of my country's refined oil, it can be seen that the next round of oil price adjustment time is 24:00 on October 10, which will usher in the 19th round of refined oil price adjustments this year. Judging from the current oil price forecast changes, it is expected that this round of price adjustment will continue to decline, because the prospect of the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused concerns about energy supply, and there is expectation of rebound expectations for international oil prices. The main indicators of price adjustment have rebounded one after another, which has prompted a significant narrowing of the forecast decline in oil prices. It is expected that it is very likely to enter a stranded state after a period of time.
Take the second working day of this round of pricing cycle as an example. The reference crude oil change rate is -1.94%, which is significantly reduced from the previous working day, which means that the latest forecast for oil prices is down by 100 yuan/ton, and the specific drop is 85 yuan/ton, which is getting closer and closer to the price adjustment red line. If you experience another wave of rebound and rebound, then the oil price forecast will fall into a standstill. To be converted into liter prices, the expected reduction in oil prices is 0.05 yuan/liter-0.07 yuan/liter. Car owners spend about 2-3 yuan less than a box of 50L gasoline. This is also a specific manifestation of the significant narrowing of the oil price decline. Since the latest forecast for oil prices has fallen below 100 yuan/ton, does that mean that the next round of refined oil price adjustments has fallen slim?
First of all, although the market's expectations of tightening oil supply and concerns about economic growth and oil demand continue to compete, according to the latest market trends, the prospect of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused an increase in concerns about energy supply, which has a driving effect on oil prices. International crude oil futures prices ushered in an overnight market. For example, international crude oil rose slightly on the 22nd, and Brent crude oil re-established at US$90 per barrel, adding a touch of popularity to the market. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $0.55 to close at $83.49 per barrel, an increase of 0.66%. London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in November rose $0.63 to close at $90.46 a barrel, an increase of 0.70%.
In addition, OPEC+ will not allow international crude oil to fluctuate downward. According to relevant authoritative analysts, if international oil prices continue to lower, then there is a high possibility of OPEC+ to significantly reduce production. This is beyond doubt. After all, the current oil price has made OPEC+ very unhappy. If oil prices continue to lower in the later period, oil-producing countries will inevitably intervene. At the same time, the recent market expectations of tightening oil supply have heated up, so international oil prices may usher in a rebound. Affected by this, the forecast decline in domestic refined oil prices continues to shrink, and the next round of refined oil price adjustment may be slim.
Secondly, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused concerns that Russia's energy flows may be affected. In addition, Western energy sanctions on Russia may be more radical, or Russia may further use Russian energy as a weapon. However, geopolitical tensions have always been an important factor driving oil prices to rise, and the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is no exception, which is a positive factor for oil prices. Of course, economic uncertainty is likely to limit any oil price increase to the $95 to $100 per barrel, leaving oil prices in sideways trading mode in the near- and medium-term. But then again, the geopolitical impact of Ukraine conflict will continue to be positive for oil prices, while OPEC+'s production will be seriously below the output target, and oil prices may rise in the near future, and WTI and Brent crude oil may rebound significantly.
To sum up, due to the concerns caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the latest forecast for domestic oil prices has fallen below 100 yuan/ton, a significant reduction from the previous working day. Moreover, the geopolitical impact will continue to be a positive driving force for oil prices. Therefore, it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will fall slimly, and it may be difficult to achieve a trend of continuing to lower.
