According to the latest oil price trends, international oil prices are currently maintaining a rebound trend. The futures prices of WTI and Brent crude oil both rose by more than 1.0%, and there is a possibility of continuing to break through upward. Therefore, if the current trend of oil price rebound upward, it is expected that the next round of domestic refined oil price adjustment may be stranded. As the crude oil change rate referenced for price adjustment in recent working days continues to shrink, the cumulative reduction of oil price forecasts continues to narrow, which is due to the rebound and rise of international crude oil futures prices in the overnight market. However, international oil prices are currently rebounding, which means that with a few working days left in this round of pricing statistics cycle, the decline in the comprehensive crude oil variety change rate will continue to shrink, so the oil price forecast may be in a stranded state.
Of course, there are many factors that support the rebound of international oil prices: First, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) that most people are concerned about announced expectations for the new production cuts at the meeting on October 5. As international oil prices fell to early-year levels this week, markets are increasingly worried that rising interest rates will trigger a global recession, thus limiting fuel demand. There are signs that OPEC+ may implement production cuts at next week's meeting to avoid further declines in oil prices, and according to relevant sources, Russia is considering proposing to cut production capacity by 1 million barrels. There is no doubt that if the capacity is really reduced by 1 million barrels, then international oil prices are likely to rise rapidly next week. Similarly, my country's forecast decline in refined oil prices will narrow significantly, and it is very likely that it will get closer and closer to the stranding.
Second, another factor in the rebound in international oil prices is that it benefits from the weakening of the US dollar, making the dollar-denominated commodity cheaper for other currency holders. provides a rare breathing space for risk assets and market risk preferences rebound. Third, against the backdrop of the US imposing new sanctions on Iran , U.S. crude oil inventories were lowered last week. In other words, U.S. fuel inventory data showed a decline exceeding expectations, but consumer demand rebounded, thus supporting the rebound in international oil prices.
Specifically, the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that as of the week ending September 23, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 215,000 barrels to 430,700 barrels, an expected increase of 443,000 barrels, an increase of 1.142,000 barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.422,000 barrels, an expected increase of 709,000 barrels, an increase of 1.569,000 barrels; refined oil inventories decreased by 2.892,000 barrels, a record of the largest decline since the week of April 8, 2022, an expected decrease of 69,000 barrels, an increase of 1.231,000 barrels; crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma increased by 69,000 barrels, an increase of 343,000 barrels. U.S. strategic oil reserves (SPR) inventories fell by 4.575 million barrels to 422.6 million barrels last week, the lowest since the week of July 27, 1984, the 55th consecutive week of decline. In addition, U.S. domestic crude oil production fell by 100,000 barrels to 12 million barrels per day last week.
Obviously, with the decline in crude oil inventories announced by the United States and the sharp pullback of the US dollar recently, coupled with the expected OPEC+ to begin discussions on implementing production cuts at the meeting on October 5, so multiple positive news temporarily suppressed the concerns of the economic recession and curbing crude oil demand, and promoted the rebound of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices. The cumulative increase in recent trading days has been large, adding some popularity to the market and boosting investors' mentality.
Secondly, because international oil prices are an important weather vane for the price adjustment of refined oil in my country. Usually, international oil prices rebound and rebound, then the relevant indicators of domestic oil price prediction will also be reflected. For example, with the rebound of international crude oil futures in recent years, the crude oil change rate of price adjustment reference has been reduced from -3.92% to -3.12%. The cumulative decline in oil price forecast narrowed to around 130 yuan/ton, which is significantly reduced from the decline in the previous few working days. If international oil prices continue to rebound in the later period, then the decline in my country's refined oil price forecast is close to a stranded state, and the so-called downgrade may be difficult to achieve.
So, overall, international oil prices have maintained a rebound, with the latest increase of more than 1%. Since the market expects OPEC+ to announce production cuts in early October, this is a major positive news for oil prices, it is estimated that the next round of refined oil price adjustment may be stranded.
