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Financial World US Stock News: In the early morning of March 21, Beijing time, US stocks closed up mixed on Monday, with the Nasdaq slightly rising 0.01% and hitting a record high in the intraday session, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.20%. Investors are digesting the speeches of several senior Fed officials, looking for clues about the future prospects of interest rate policy after the Fed raises interest rates last week. Chicago Fed Chairman Evans said the Fed could raise interest rates four times this year.

Dow Jones closed down 8.76 points, or 0.04%, to 20,905.86 points; the Nasdaq rose 0.53 points, or 0.01%, to 5,901.53 points; the S&P 500 fell 4.78 points, or 0.20%, to 2,373.47 points.

Chinese concept stocks closed up and down on Monday, with Alibaba (US BABA) rising 1.57% to close at $107.27, JD (US SE) rising 0.48% to close at $31.71, Baidu (US SE) rising 0.28% to close at $176.13; the three stocks rose more than 30% to close at $176.13; 3%, of which Yirendai rose 6.22% to close at $24.77, Lanxun (US CCIH) rose 5.88% to close at $1.74, and New Oriental rose 3.88% to close at $57.24; the two stocks fell more than 4%, of which Century Internet fell 4.97% to close at $5.54, and Cheetah Mobile Company (US CMCM) fell 5.28% to close at $12.38.

USD fell and the UK announced the launch of Brexit to boost gold closed up in three days ||Financial Website||###||March 21, 2017 04:18

Financial World US Stock News: In the early morning of March 21, Beijing time, according to the US financial website MarketWatch, gold futures prices closed up on Monday, setting a high closing price in two and a half weeks, continuing the upward trend since the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, and rising for the third consecutive trading day because the US dollar fell against the euro when the UK was preparing to launch the formal departure from the EU process, thus supporting the gold price.

New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures price for April delivery rose $3.80 to close at $1,234 per ounce, or 0.3%. According to statistics from financial information provider FactSet, this set a record for gold futures’ highest closing price since March 1. In overall trading last week, gold prices rose by about 2.4%; FactSet data showed that this hit the largest single-week increase in gold prices since the week ended February 3.

Last week the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, in line with broad market expectations. However, the Fed's post-meeting policy statement and the bank's expectations for future interest rate hikes are seen as leaning towards a "dove" stance. The Fed's interest rate hike could undermine the attractiveness of gold to investors because gold is a non-interest-paying asset. Meanwhile, the Fed's interest rate hikes tend to drive the dollar up, and in general, rising dollar exchange rates will cause the prices of dollar-denominated commodity futures such as gold to fall because investors holding other currencies will have higher costs to buy these commodities.

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) dollar index, which tracks the exchange rate movement of the US dollar against six major international currencies, rose 0.1% at the close of the gold futures market, but had previously hit its lowest level since February. The dollar fell against the euro on the same day as the British government said that the country's Prime Minister Theresa May will trigger Article 50 of the EU treaty on March 29 to initiate procedures for formal departure from the EU.

In other metal trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, silver futures price for May delivery rose 0.1% to close at $17.438 per ounce. Copper futures for May delivery fell 0.9% to close at $2.667 per pound. Platinum futures for April delivery rose 1% to close at $972.40 per ounce. Palladium prices for June delivery rose 0.8% to close at $781.65 per ounce.

Crude oil drilling data climbed and put pressure on crude oil closed slightly ||Financial World Website||###||March 21, 2017 04:20

Financial World US Stock News: Crude oil futures prices closed down on Monday, setting the lowest closing price in nearly a week, as the number of active crude oil drilling platforms in the United States has rekindled the market's concerns about the growth of US crude oil production. In addition, some analysts are concerned that changes in the G20 policy statements may have an impact on global trade.

New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas light crude oil futures for April delivery fell 56 cents to close at $48.22 a barrel, down 1.2%, and the contract will expire after Tuesday's close. The price of North Sea Brent crude oil futures for delivery on the London ICE European Futures Exchange also fell 14 cents to close at $51.62 per barrel, a drop of 0.3%. Last week, West Texas light crude oil futures prices rose by about 0.6%, and Brent oil prices also rose by 0.8%, both achieving their first single-week gains in three weeks.

Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM, pointed out that West Texas light crude oil futures prices "are likely to experience a sharp decline because the growth in U.S. drilling activity has deepened market concerns about oversupply." He also added: "Investor sentiment in the crude oil market remains negative, and optimism about the effectiveness of OPEC (OPEC) production cut agreement is weakening, prompting short sellers to further attack oil prices."

oil field service provider Baker Hughes (html) released a report last Friday that the number of active crude oil drilling platforms in the United States increased by 14 to 631 last week, an increase for the ninth consecutive week. This also means the number of active crude oil drilling platforms has hit its highest level since September 2015, according to Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures. At the same time, the G20 removed the wording of opposing protectionist policies in its policy statement at the request of U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, which is also one of the reasons for the pressure on crude oil prices.

In other energy transactions on the New York Mercantile Exchange, RBOB gasoline futures for delivery in April rose 0.8% to close at $1.611 per gallon; heating oil futures for delivery in April rose 0.4% to close at $1.514 per gallon; natural gas futures for delivery in April closed up 3.2% to close at $3.041 per million UK thermal units.

"No need to rush to raise interest rates" He is currently the most dovish voting committee of the Federal Reserve|| Wall Street News ||###|| March 21, 2017 03:02

Minneapolis Fed Chairman Neel Kashkari may be the most dovish official of the Federal Reserve. At the FOMC meeting last week, he voted his only objection to the rate hike. He said today there is no need to rush to raise interest rates. In contrast, other Fed officials are more hawkish. Chicago Fed Chairman Evans said today that the Fed may raise interest rates twice, three times or even four times this year.

Kashkari said in an interview with foreign media: "We do not have a high inflation threat right away." He pointed out that the lack of inflationary pressure allows the Fed to patiently raise interest rates. "I would be surprised if core inflation hits 2% this year," he said.

In March this year, the FOMC decided to raise interest rates, and Kashkari voted the only objection. This may have made him the most dovish Fed official. When other officials say there are two more rate hikes this year if unemployment remains low and inflation is close to 2%.

Kashkari said: "The current data remains basically stable, so I want to ask, why are you anxious to raise interest rates? When the data is really enough to support interest rate hikes, we can withdraw from the easing policy at that time."

2017 is the first time Kashkari has the FOMC voting rights.

Kashkari's statement is in sharp contrast with Chicago Fed Chairman Charles Evans.

US Chicago Fed Chairman Charles Evans pointed out in his speech on Monday that the economy is in a good trend and it is entirely possible to raise interest rates three times this year.

In an interview with Fox Business News, Evans believes that the Fed's current confidence in a rebound in inflation has increased, and the number of interest rate hikes in 2017 can be more or less than three times, depending on the economic outlook. In his speech, Evans further pointed out that his main concern is still inflation, and fiscal policy is expected to push up the inflation rate significantly.

In terms of the labor market, Evans believes it is very strong and the economic growth this year is enough to lower the unemployment rate a little further. Despite moderate improvement in salary, growth has not met its expectations.

Evans also believes that there is room for inflation to rise to the target or even exceed the target. Compared to a few months ago, the financial environment is also more suitable.

The Federal Reserve should next focus on the balance sheet||Financial World Website||###||March 20, 2017 22:49

Financial World US Stock News: Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said in an interview with CNBC that the Federal Reserve is pushing the Federal Reserve to process the balance sheet earlier, rather than later.

Salaries have begun to rise but have not risen to worrying levels of inflation. We have room to continue to wait and make the labor market further improve.Economic expectations have not been changed to include the impact of Trump's potential fiscal policy measures.

Kashkari said, "The people feel good, they are optimistic, but they are waiting and watching." What actions will the White House and Congress take, saying he is waiting and watching at the moment.

Kashkari has the right to vote in FOMC this year. Last week, he argued that the Fed kept interest rates unchanged.

Federal Evans: May raise interest rates four times this year ||Financial Website||###||March 20, 2017 22:26

Federal US Stock News: Chicago Fed Governor Charles Evans said on Monday that if the improvement of the US economy continues, the Fed may raise interest rates three times in 2017, but if the inflation rate exceeds 2%, or just reaches the 2% target the Fed hopes to reach, then the Fed may raise interest rates four times this year.

In an interview with Fox Business News, Evans said that U.S. GDP is expected to grow by 2.25% this year, partly because the tight employment situation has caused compensation growth to be inconsistent with expected speed.

Evans was a 2017 interest rate policy voting committee member.

The Fed announced a rate hike last week and hinted that Fed members expect to raise interest rates twice this year.

Evans said that despite the Fed's interest rate hike action worth paying attention to, U.S. financing conditions have become more relaxed and stocks are rising.

Evans said the U.S. economy is in a very good situation and if anything, inflation is the main concern. He said: "We are more confident about rising inflation; the three interest rate hikes in 2017 are entirely possible; the number of interest rate hikes in 2017 can be more or less than three times, depending on the economic outlook."

He believes that fiscal policy may significantly push up the inflation rate; the economic growth rate this year is enough to lower the unemployment rate a little further. He said: "Wages have improved moderately, and wage growth is lower than I expected; inflation has room for improvement to 2.0%, or even higher;"

Evans also believes that the financial environment in the United States is slightly looser than it was a few months ago; the growth target of 4.0% is a bit too much for the US economy.

Federal officials made intensive speeches this week What signals will they send? ||Wall Street News||###||March 20, 2017 17:06

After a long "silence period", the market will welcome speeches from at least 9 senior Federal Reserve officials this week, including Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen .

Starting from March 21, Beijing time, these nine senior Federal Reserve officials will deliver 11 speeches this week. Yellen's speech will start at 20:00 on Thursday, the 24th, and Dudley, who enjoys permanent voting rights, will deliver speeches on the 21st and 24th respectively. You can pay attention to his views on the banking industry.

Wall Street News mentioned earlier that Evans, who will speak on Tuesday, is dovish and is expected to raise interest rates further, but may give a warning.

Among Fed officials who spoke on Wednesday, Mester and George are cautious hawks, and their speeches are economical, and their speeches may reverse the impact of Evans on the dollar.

Kaplan, who spoke on Friday, is also a more cautious hawk, and may still maintain his own point of view in his speech.

Considering that the US data is relatively light this week, the speeches of Federal Reserve officials may become an important factor influencing the trend of the US dollar. Kathy Lien, chief foreign exchange analyst at BK Asset Management, wrote an article earlier that Fed officials may take advantage of the opportunity to speak to remind market interest rates will still rise.

After the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, Kashkari, the first official to speak out, said that the next rate hike should be postponed before the balance sheet reduction plan is in place, and said that the Fed is better than being too loose than being too tight.

It is worth noting that Kashkari will also speak this week, and he voted against the rate hike in the March interest rate meeting.

Weidmann: Loose monetary policy is still suitable, but the ECB should consider gradually withdrawing||Wall Street News||###||March 21, 2017 03:44

Jens Weidmann, the ECB Management Committee and President of the Federal Bank of Germany, said on Monday that continuing loose monetary policy is still suitable. Given the serious consequences of the financial crisis in 2007-08, the market should remain patient and not rush to achieve its preset economic goals immediately.

But he also said that in the context of a clear recovery in inflation, the ECB should begin to consider sending a more "balanced" signal. He believes that the ECB should "consider when it should gradually withdraw from excessively loose monetary policy and make the information conveyed by the central bank more symmetrical."

The Federal Reserve also added the statement of "symmetric inflation target" to the statement of the FOMC meeting in March, which was interpreted by the outside world as dovish remarks that acquiesced the inflation rate exceeding the 2% target. Weidmann, known as the "king of hawks", belongs to the monetary policy conservative camp. His remarks reveal that he is alert to the ECB's attention to inflation's imminent target.

Euro-USD exchange rate fell 0.2% after midday on Monday, falling below the previous closing level to 1.073, but gradually recovered the lost ground.

Germany's 10-year government bond yield rose 1 basis point to 0.44%.

Previously, Wall Street News reported that Ewald Nowotny, a member of the European Central Bank's Management Committee from Austria , said in an interview with the German Business Daily that the European Central Bank may be about to raise interest rates, but may get rid of monetary easing in a different way than the Federal Reserve.

Nowotny also believes that after Draghi stepped down in 2019, his possible successor will be selected between Weidmann and French central bank governor Fran ois Villeroy de Galhau, but Weidmann's victory may be even bigger, suggesting that the ECB will accelerate its monetary easing policy.

The Trump administration is consuming the most precious things in the United States||Wall Street News||###||March 21, 2017 03:33

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers made fierce criticism of the Trump administration on Sunday, warning that the White House is consuming one of the most precious assets in the United States - credibility.

Sumers said on Sunday at the "China Development High-Level Forum 2017" held at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing: "I think the core of the effective operation of the government is to formulate policies based on facts and deal with problems based on analysis. Therefore, I am very worried about the tendency of selective facts and certain assertions that are not supported by reality."

He also said: "I think that over time, that will cause great harm to the credibility of the United States. In many aspects of governing, credibility is money."

Talking about the G20 communiqué: The real problem is not the wording

Sumers also talked about the G20 Central Bank and Treasury Secretary Communiqué just issued over the weekend. This communiqué violates the G20's practice of "opposing trade protectionism" and promising "free trade" over the past decade, and replaces it with the content of "we will strengthen the contribution of trade to the economy, strive to reduce excessive imbalances in global trade, promote more inclusion and fairness while pursuing economic growth, and reduce inequality." This is seen as Trump's representative victory.

In response to this, Summers commented: "I certainly don't encourage these contents. This is certainly not a favorable development. I think the real problem is not the wording in the communiqué, but what will happen in the future."

He said that if the world accepts protectionism, it "could cause considerable harm." But if there is no trend of increasing tariffs, the information conveyed by the G20 communiqué will not have any significant impact.

talks about China: Capital outflow and real estate market

In addition to the United States, Summers also talks about China. He is most concerned about the world's second-largest economy: capital outflows and the real estate market: "Chinese policy makers are accumulating pressure on debt accumulation, real estate, financial markets, and capital outflows." He believes that these challenges facing China "point to areas where growth is likely to slow."

Sumers said that the Chinese government, which manages the economy, is not complacent, but he warned that maintaining economic growth will force the Chinese government to "do more and more in long-term sustainability." The result will be that economic growth in the next one or two years will be an early overdraw for the longer term future.

For large-scale investments throughout the country to maintain housing prices and demand, Summers believes that this cannot continue indefinitely.

One of the outstanding challenges facing China is capital outflow. He said that the current total scale of capital outflows is historically relatively large.

As the Fed raises interest rates again, Summers believes that China's raising interest rates is likely to be a "more sustained approach". "I certainly don't want to criticize the central bank. But I do think that they are under pressure from what they seem to need to do to sustain demand, and that may be something they can never do. So, in a sense, their postponement of reforms is a concern."

Sumers served as Treasury Secretary in the Bill Clinton administration and as chairman of the National Economic Conference in the Obama administration.

G20 statement sparked rare controversy. China will play the standard bearer of free trade ||Financial World Website ||###||March 21, 2017 00:16

Financial World US Stock News: The first meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and (Hong Kong Stock 00001) central bank governors held in Germany this year saw a rare scene of fierce debate among countries over the joint statement. This is because the Trump administration, which advocates "America No. 1", has prevented the explicit entry of "opposition to protectionism." The statement was ultimately not written into the statement, and the international coordination mechanism was shaken. Under this situation, China began to try to replace the United States and play the role of the flag bearer of free trade. Japan is worried about friction with the United States and has taken a wait-and-see attitude.

does not agree with

"The Trump administration does not want to fight a trade war." U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin held a press conference in Berlin, Germany on the 16th day before the opening of the G20 meeting to seek understanding of the Trump administration's trade policy. However, the United States, the world's largest country, may no longer support free trade that promotes economic development after World War II, has caused strong concerns among countries.

President Trump immediately announced his withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) after taking office. In order to increase U.S. exports and create jobs, it requires the conclusion of trade agreements that are beneficial to its own countries. Trade rivals who have unfair situations will be levied at all times to impose punitive high tariffs.

"must compete with protectionism." Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso did not forget to remind Mnuchin during his first talks on the 17th. Aso explained to reporters that he had "no refuted", but he probably did not recognize it. The U.S. Treasury Department's documents issued after the meeting did not even disclose whether there had been any discussions on trade.

Change direction

Briefly with the UK's departure from the EU and the far-right parties gaining power in France and Trump's popularity in the US presidential election. G20 stated in the statement of the Treasury Secretary and the Central Bank Governors' Meeting that "confrontation with protectionism" has become the norm. But this time it was strongly opposed by the Trump administration.

According to relevant sources, the United States said it "cannot agree with anti-trade protectionism based on the current unfair free trade" and demanded a change of the statement. Germany, the president of the conference, proposed alternative solutions such as "strengthening fair and openness and bringing prosperity to the international trade system", but coordination with the United States was extremely difficult.

Japan's original position was "It is better to write anti-trade protectionism into the statement", but it easily changed direction and changed to an attitude that was not limited to expression. The Japanese side seems to believe that in order to smoothly survive the talks between Japan and the United States' finance ministers, which are considered "the key to this trip" (words by diplomatic related personnel), confrontation with the United States on trade issues is not a good idea.

Asho emphasized in the first day's discussion: "It must be based on free and fair trade rules." He used the term "fairness" that Trump liked. Regarding the agreement reached by the Japanese and American finance ministers on "avoiding competitive currencies depreciation", Japanese escorts said they "had a sigh of relief."

criticism of Japan

Chinese President Xi Jinping held a telephone talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the 16th before the G20 meeting, saying that China will promote the construction of an open world economy, which seems to be targeting the United States. China has clearly seen the current situation of the G20 after the Trump administration came to power as an excellent opportunity to increase its influence in the international economic field.

Japan will launch a "high-level economic dialogue" with the Trump administration in April. It is expected that the US will require Japan to lift agricultural product tariffs and open the automobile market.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) review meeting on Japan's trade policy released a report this month saying that Japan's "agricultural product tariffs are high" and demanded a reduction.On this point alone, if a wrong response is taken in economic dialogue, Japan may be criticized by the international community as a country with a negative attitude towards trade liberalization.

The Fed's interest rate hike drives global interest rates to shift, and the world economy enters "remedial growth" ||People's Daily Overseas Edition ||###|| March 20, 2017 23:12

The starting point for global interest rate shift

According to the BBC, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced on the 15th that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% to 1%. This is the third rate hike of the Federal Reserve since the financial crisis, which is in line with general market expectations.

As CNN reported, the Fed rate hike shows that the U.S. economy no longer needs to get so much help from the Fed and consumers, and companies are able to pay more interest.

Federal Chairman Yellen said at a press conference that the interest rate hike decision reflects the steady progress of the US economy towards full employment and 2% inflation target. She said waiting too long to raise interest rates could force the Fed to speed up the pace of interest rate hikes thereafter, which could trigger volatility in financial markets and threaten economic growth.

In December 2008, in order to save the collapsed real estate market, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 0%. Rate hikes were not raised twice until the end of 2015 and the end of 2016. However, Yellen said that the Fed will accelerate the pace of rate hikes this year. Federal Reserve officials expect the Fed to raise interest rates twice in 2017.

Fitch said that the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points indicates that the normalization of US monetary policy has entered a new stage. The Fed's recent interest rate hike may be the starting point for the global interest rate shift.

" Wall Street Journal " commented that the special era of monetary policy stimulating the economy is about to end. As the first central bank to make policy changes, the Federal Reserve recently launched its third interest rate hike since the financial crisis, and it is expected that the federal funds rate will rise to 1.375% by the end of this year.

"Since Yellen succeeded as chairman of the Federal Reserve, the United States has gradually withdrawn from quantitative easing and entered the stage of interest rate hikes. At the end of 2015, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time after the financial crisis. From then on, the monetary policies of the United States and Europe and Japan have differentiated. The United States ended quantitative easing, monetary policy began to tighten, and Europe and Japan still implemented loose monetary policies." Chen Fengying, a researcher at the World Economics Institute of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, said in an interview with our newspaper.

However, signs of gradually withdrawing stimulus measures have emerged. Entering 2017, economists and analysts generally believe that given the improvement of global economic conditions compared to a year ago, the direction of low interest rates and loose monetary policy among major central banks is changing. The European Central Bank's recent policy meeting decided to remain unchanged. The central bank's governor Draghi said there is no urgent need for further action. The European Central Bank may no longer need a new round of stimulus measures to support the economy. The emergency pressure caused by the risk of deflation has disappeared.

In addition, Reuters analysis also pointed out that the Bank of Japan will maintain its monetary policy in the near future, and it is waiting for more data showing an increase in inflation. However, most of the analysts interviewed by Reuters expect the Bank of Japan's next step to begin withdrawing stimulus measures.

The world economy began to recover

"This year, almost all major countries and regions have achieved positive growth, and trade and investment are also positive growth. The world economy is really recovering." Chen Fengying said, "I think that in 2016, the world economy bottomed out. In 2017, it began to recover. When the world's economic growth was the fastest, the annual growth rate reached 5.1%. After the major adjustment of the financial crisis in 2008, the history of high growth was temporarily over. Next, the world economy returned to normal, and the growth rate would fluctuate around 3.5%."

According to the forecast released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January this year, the global economic growth rate will reach 3.4% this year and rise to 3.6% next year, both higher than the growth rate of 3.1% last year. The recent IMF index shows that global economic growth is expected to accelerate. The growth prospects of developed economies have improved, among which the United States will further improve due to the launch of more expansionary fiscal policies. Driven by the economic growth of China and India, emerging economies will contribute more than 3/4 to global economic growth this year.

The development of the US economy is naturally eye-catching. "Usually, after the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, gold and stock markets will fall in response. But this time it's different. This time gold soared, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose by 120 points that day. This shows that the US economy is really improving. "Chen Fengying said.

data shows that the United States has increased jobs for 77 consecutive months, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.7%. The quarterly economic forecast released by the Federal Reserve shows that the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.1% this year, the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% by the end of this year, and the inflation rate is expected to be 1.9%.

The euro zone economy has also begun to recover. ECB Executive Committee member Peter Prett recently pointed out in a speech that according to the European Central Bank The Union Statistics Bureau roughly estimates that the real GDP of the euro zone has continued to grow for 15 consecutive quarters, growing by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2016. The economic prosperity index has reached its highest value in almost six years, and the unemployment rate has dropped back to single digits.

The performance of emerging economies has not disappointed the world. The 2017 Annual Report on the Development of Emerging Economies pointed out that in 2016, thanks to the slow rebound in commodity prices and economic policy adjustments and The results of reform have been gradually released, and the sharp decline in economic growth in emerging economies has been curbed, and the overall development trend is showing a slow-moving and stable development trend. From a country perspective, as the economies of economies such as Russia, , Brazil, , etc. have emerged from recession, the economy has been Growth rate bottomed out and rebounded.

According to data released by the International Monetary Fund, it is expected that the GDP growth rate of E11 (11 emerging countries, referring to 11 emerging economies in the G20, namely Argentina , Brazil, China, India, Indonesia , South Korea, Mexico , Russia, Saudi Arabia , South Africa and Turkey) will be about 4.4%.

risks are still not to be underestimated

"The world economy has entered a repairing growth, but it still faces high risks. "Chen Fengying said.

The medium-term "Economic Outlook Report" released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently issued a reminder that although the global economy is recovering moderately and confidence is recovering, the world still faces multiple risks. The rise of populism, the increase in policy uncertainty, social turmoil, the differentiation of monetary policy and the lack of fiscal policies are dragging down the global economy. The uncertainty of future policies and the sudden political risks in many countries The rise will also pose a threat to the global economy.

A recent report from the International Monetary Fund also pointed out that the uncertainty faced by the global economy has increased. The negative impact of economic integration and technological innovation on employment and income distribution in developed economies is causing more concerns and has led to an intensified inclination of developed economies. The protectionist policies it may adopt will disrupt the global trade order and damage economic growth.

As for the US economy, Chen Fengying believes that there are still many uncertainties. She said: "First of all, the Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeds 21,000 points, and the US stock market bubble is too big. The stock market should reflect the situation of the real economy. Although the US economy is recovering, it is very slow, with an average annual growth of only about 2.1%. Secondly, hikes in interest rates mean higher debt repayment costs. Currently, nearly $20 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds have exceeded its GDP. After the rate hike, the pressure on the U.S. government will rise. In addition, after Trump takes office, the exchange rate and trade frictions between the United States and other countries, especially trade surplus countries such as Germany, China and Japan, will increase. After the interest rate hike, these frictions and contradictions will become prominent. ”

The International Monetary Fund also warned that with the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the pace of investment funds flowing into the United States, which is expected to achieve high returns, will accelerate. The report is worried that emerging market countries that have lost the backing of investment funds "will face difficulties."

However, the impact on emerging economies may not be so big anymore. Chen Fengying said: "Historically, the US interest rate hike cycle has triggered global or regional financial crises many times. However, this time it is different. This time it took a long time from the news to the real interest rate hike. Every country is facing a great enemy. The market is already adjusting, and risks have been gradually absorbed. Moreover, emerging economies have begun to join forces to keep warm. It turned out that money, strength and voice are all in the West, and now emerging economies have grasped a certain degree of initiative. Therefore, the situation is not that pessimistic."

If the global economic recovery continues, this is the only condition ||Wall Street News||###||March 21, 2017 03:34

Morgan Stanley believes that the current recovery cycle of the US economy is not because of the strong momentum of economic growth, but because of the low interest rates of the Federal Reserve. For the global economy, if the current recovery "party" is to continue, the central bank can maintain a low-growth and low-inflation environment with low interest rates.

But the current long positions are overcrowded and have not fundamentally changed, leaving oil prices with more room to fall. WTI crude oil futures also fell nearly 10% in seven days after falling below the key integer mark of $50 per barrel for the first time in March 9, and are still hovering around $48 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures have almost lost $51 per barrel.

Therefore, many mainstream analysts believe that the production cut agreement can be continued again in the second half of the year. Deutsche Bank even believes that the production cut agreement will continue until the end of 2018. Citigroup also has confidence in the positive impact of the production cut agreement on alleviating inventory accumulation. Previously, OPEC Oil's monthly report predicted that the production cut agreement would have a positive impact on global crude oil stocks until 90 days after its implementation.

It's time to bullish oil prices and oil company stocks? ||Financial World Website||###||March 20, 2017 16:55

Financial World US Stock News: I think the recent decline in international oil prices is a good thing. We can take advantage of this opportunity to buy crude oil assets. But we need to first look at the reasons for the recent decline in crude oil prices?

Now many investors ignore the most important thing, that is, there are many people betting on rising oil prices, and the scale of betting is even larger than before crude oil prices fell below support. However, in a very short period of time before the oil price broke, the bet on the rise of oil prices was very large. When the oil price suddenly fell and broke, investors trampled and fled, further forming the downward action energy of oil prices.

It is obvious that the above factors are not the focus. Saudi Arabia has previously asked other OPEC member states to take production cuts to support international crude oil prices. The trigger for the decline in international crude oil prices is that Saudi Arabia will signal that it will withdraw from its production cut plan. It is obvious that the crude oil market is afraid that OPEC member states will suddenly suspend production cuts. More importantly, data previously released by the U.S. Energy Agency showed an extraordinary increase in domestic crude oil inventories.

In the latest report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that Saudi Arabia is actually carrying out oil production cuts and the storage cost of imported crude oil is also very high, which we just discovered recently. Surprisingly, crude oil inventory has increased significantly, but eventually, the international crude oil market will balance with seasonal changes.

What we really worry about in the end is that OPEC member countries will no longer extend the production cut plan, after all, the current domestic crude oil inventory in the United States is on the track of normalization. But the U.S. shale oil production is still worrying.

Although OPEC's recent report said that the current rate of crude oil demand rising is much higher than the rate of increase in crude oil production, it can be bullish on crude oil prices. But investors are still worried that the rapid increase in U.S. crude oil production will exacerbate the oversupply of the crude oil market. At present, the crude oil market still has an oversupply situation, and this situation is turning to balance at a very fast pace. But it is possible that in the second quarter of 2017, a supply and demand imbalance in the crude oil market is likely to occur. The extension of the OPEC production cut agreement time may exacerbate the imbalance in the crude oil market.

Our current view is that OPEC member countries will definitely extend the duration of their crude oil production cut plans.

Therefore, we are also bullish on crude oil prices and stock prices of crude oil-related companies. ExxonMobil , Chevron, BP and other stocks are worthy of everyone's attention.

Institutions recommend five dividend growth stocks: can improve investment returns ||Financial World Website ||###||March 21, 2017 01:32

Financial World US Stock News: US investment research company Zacks recently published an article on its website, recommending five dividend growth stocks, saying that they will improve investors' investment returns.

The following is the full text of this article:

Although risk-returns have weakened the attractiveness of dividend investment, stocks that can consistently raise dividends are still very popular among investors.

focuses on dividend growth stocks

dividend growth stocks can be said to be the best of both worlds - it can not only provide opportunities for capital appreciation, but also bring investors rising income in a market fluctuating environment. This is because these stocks belong to mature companies, which are less susceptible to major market fluctuations than other companies, and can ignore the market trend and regularly provide investors with high dividends or major returns.

In addition, these companies also have sustainable business models, competitive advantages, long-term profit records, growth cash flow, good quality, strong balance sheet and other part of value stocks. All these excellent fundamental factors mean that dividend growth stocks are very high-quality and promising investments for long-term investors. In addition, if a company has a history of strong dividend growth, it means that the company is likely to further increase its dividend in the future, which makes it healthy and safe.

Although these stocks have a long history of outperforming the market or outperforming any other dividend stock, it does not necessarily mean that they will bring the highest returns to investors.

The result is that adding some other screening criteria when selecting dividend growth stocks can bring investors a winning strategy:

——Five-year history dividend growth rate is higher than zero: this standard can select stocks with a stable dividend growth history;

——Five-year history sales growth rate is higher than zero: this standard can select stocks with a stable revenue growth history;

——Five-year history earnings per share growth rate is higher than zero: this standard can select stocks with a stable profit growth history;

——The expected earnings per share growth rate in the next three to five years is higher than zero: this standard represents the expected growth rate of a company's future profit. Increased profits should help the company continue to pay dividends;

- The ratio of stock price to cash flow is lower than the industry average: If the ratio of stock price to cash flow is lower than the industry average, it means that the company's stock is undervalued in its industry. For investors, this means they only have to pay less money to buy stocks of a company with better cash flow performance.

– Price increases over the past 52 weeks are higher than the S&P 500: This standard ensures that a company's share price has accumulated more than the same period in the past year.

—"Zacks Rating" is Level 1 or Level 2: Generally speaking, stocks with "Zack 1 Rating" (equivalent to "Strong Buy" Rating) or "Zack 2 Rating" (equivalent to "Buy" Rating) can be better than peers under various market environments.

—“VGM score” is at level B or above: In our VGM scoring system, “V” represents “Value” (value), “G” represents “Growth”, “M” represents “Momentum” (kinetic energy), and the overall score is a weighted combination of these three scoring factors. This rating allows investors to eliminate negative factors in stocks and select the winners. If a stock has a VGM score of B or above and has a "Zack 1 Rating" or "Zack 2 Rating", then it can provide the best upside potential.

After screening using the above criteria, we selected a total of 22 stocks, five of which are listed below:

1.EnerSys (ENS)

This company based in , Pennsylvania, is a global leader in industrial use energy storage solutions. For the current fiscal year ended March 2017, analysts raised their earnings per share expectations for the company by 10 cents over the past three months, with an expected growth rate of 19.21%. The company has a "Zack 2 rating" with a VGM rating of A.

2.Broadcom (AVGO)

This company based in Singapore is mainly engaged in the design, development and provision of a range of equipment based on synthetic digital and mixed signal complementary metal oxide semiconductors worldwide. For the current fiscal year ending October 2017, analysts raised their earnings per share expectations for the company by 72 cents over the past 90 days, with an expected growth rate of 23.97%. The company has a "Zack 1 Rating" and its VGM rating is B.

3.Pool Corporation (POOL)

This Louisiana-based company distributes swimming pool materials, equipment and related leisure products in the North America, Europe, South America and Australia markets. For the current fiscal year, analysts raised their earnings per share expectations for the company by 28 cents over the past 90 days, with an expected growth rate of 17.44%. The company has a "Zack 1 Rating" and its VGM rating is B.

4. The Allstate Corporation (ALL)

This Illinois-based company is engaged in property liability insurance and life insurance business in the U.S. and Canadian markets. For the current fiscal year, analysts raised their earnings per share expectations for the company by 11 cents over the past 90 days, with an expected growth rate of 28.07%. The company has a "Zack 2 rating" with a VGM rating of A.

5.Tallgrass Energy Partners, LP (TEP)

This Kansas-based company owns, operates, acquires and develops midstream energy assets in the North American market. For fiscal 2017, analysts raised their earnings per share expectations for the company by 47 cents over the past 90 days, with an expected growth rate of 32.91%. The company has a "Zack 2 rating" with a VGM rating of B.