Reporter | Baifan
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When freight rates in the container shipping field plummeted, the tanker sector was completely opposite. On September 21, the shipping sector performed outstandingly against the trend, with China Merchants Nanyang Oil Corporation and China COSCO Shipping reaching the daily limit, and China Merchants Shipping following the rise. On the 22nd, affected by the news of rising freight rates for capes and super flexible ships, the A shares port shipping sector continued to strengthen, and China Merchants Nanyang Oil Corporation once again hit the daily limit.
Some media statistics show that since the beginning of this year, the stock prices of three shipping stocks, COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Nanyang Oil and China Merchants Steel, have increased by more than 100%. COSCO Shipping, known as "Sea Shipping Maple", has increased by more than 200%. The company's market value has also increased from 23.1 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 90.5 billion yuan.
The tanker sector rose against the trend was affected by multiple factors. According to analysis by many securities analysis institutions, due to the impact of the European energy crisis and winter is the traditional peak season for oil transportation, the current prosperity of the tanker transportation industry continues to rise, and freight rates are also constantly rising.
An analysis report by China Merchants Bank International shows that after the embargo on Russian oil, Europe must import crude oil from other regions, and the global crude oil transportation distance will be extended. In terms of supply, tanker production cycle is long, and tanker supply will be difficult to respond to demand changes in a short period of time. Freight rates for ultra-large tankers (VLCCs) have recently risen to a two-year high, and the continued rise in freight rates are beneficial to tankers operators.
COSCO Shipping Energy is a representative enterprise in the oil transportation sector. In response to investors' questions, COSCO Shipping said that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict at the end of February, Europe reduced its energy dependence on Russia and increased imports of crude oil and refined oil from Middle East , US Gulf , South America and other places, which directly stimulated the maritime demand in the Atlantic region, and the ship-type transportation capacity of Suez and Alfra directly benefited.
"Crude oil trade shows a pattern of 'West oil transportation in the east', while refined oil trade shows a pattern of 'East oil transportation in the west'. The lengthening of the transportation distance will effectively support transportation demand, thereby pushing up freight rates." COSCO Shipping said.
The company also said that tanker freight rates depend on the supply and demand structure of the capacity. Based on the current proportion of old capacity and new ship orders, if the ship dismantling situation meets expectations, it is expected that finished tankers will experience negative growth at the latest in 2024, and the growth of crude tanker capacity will also peak, and oil demand will continue to grow in the next few years.
Some industry insiders believe that the supply in the tanker transportation industry will continue until at least the end of the fourth quarter, and the probability of continued shortage of transportation capacity next year is also relatively high, which further extends the time dimension of tanker prosperity.
Regarding the current tight capacity supply in the tanker field, COSCO Shipping said that on the one hand, the combined combination of factors such as shipbuilding capacity, rising ship asset prices, and uncertainty in fuel technology have led to a low willingness to shipowners to build new ships. Currently, less than 5% of the order capacity will be all new production capacity delivered by the end of 2025. On the other hand, the upcoming environmental protection convention EEXI also puts great pressure on the tanker fleet in terms of carbon emission energy efficiency. The competitiveness of old ships has declined and may face an accelerated withdrawal.
