" Crude Oil Treasure " exploded, and countless investors were heavily in debt overnight.
Whether or not you participate in it, the futures investment market, a relatively unfamiliar term for ordinary people, will still wait for the day when they become the focus of society.
Although this spotlight is not glorious.
As an author of film and television entertainment, I am not proficient in the capital market, but there is still a related movie worth recommending to everyone.
provides a bystander's perspective, and tells you the rules of the game in the most easy-to-understand way of .
. After reading this article, you don’t have to worry about being fooled by the so-called brick with ulterior motives.
"Big Short" is produced by Paramount Pictures and is also one of the few good films in this company in recent years.
2016 Oscar Best Adapted Screenplay winner, Douban 8.5 points, a good movie that cannot be avoided by understanding the financial industry.
Before the story of the video begins, use a proverb to set the tone.
"You will naturally be more careful when you don't understand things; what you cause trouble is what you think you understand." Mark Twain.
In a simple and easy-to-understand phrase, it is called: drowning people can swim.
Of course, it does not include some mistakes caused by ignorance.
Before using this film to popularize the capital market, one keyword must be clearly stated - room local local securities . In the late 1970s, the Lewis of the Romon Brothers Company first proposed this concept to Wall Street .
This is a big environment where the real estate industry is booming, and 's stable value-added real estate is packaged into securities form to facilitate transactions.
Because most real estate is purchased by the owners with loans, under the constraints of mortgages and contracts, the possibility of real estate becoming negative assets is low, and there is corresponding guarantee.
So in the short term, this bond model will be crazyly sought after by the capital market.
brought into this "Crude Oil Treasure" incident, the world's demand for crude oil consumption is a basic support similar to real estate securities.
People do not believe that the oil that is valuable will fall into negative assets, just as the bankers in the film do not believe that real estate will become negative assets.
By the way, don't think that real estate securitization is far away from us.
Everyone must have heard of the core idea of housing not speculation in recent years. However, in fact, my country is one of the countries with the fastest securitization process of real estate .
packages real estate as an investment product, but emphasizes that housing is not speculated, which is a kind of black humor.
Our story officially began. In 2008, a financial tsunami hit the United States. The source was the loan crisis caused by the securitization of real estate.
When everyone is pursuing profit-seeking benefits from real estate securities, investor Michael Barry keenly discovered the problem three years in advance.
All economic industries are in a downward trend, but real estate is the only one that is up against the trend and .
Everyone thinks this is a reasonable situation, and low risk is the characteristic of real estate securities.
But he just wanted to see what the real situation of the loan market is. It doesn't matter if you check
, guess what.
Real estate securities have changed from a benign loan ratio of at least 65% of to a garbage filled with inferior loans.
Because each transaction can give the dealer a 2% commission, they make this cake infinitely bigger.
. These higher risk loans are called subprime loans . This is how subprime loan crisis comes from.
So Barry had a crazy idea, short real estate .
means betting against capital real estate will decline. If there is a decline, then Barry can make a profit from it.
is essentially a game similar to gambling , but it has been packaged by capital.
Ka Real Estate Securities is really too popular, and there is no product targeting it to decline, which means that there is no market maker opening at all.
So before realizing his idea, Barry had to do the first thing he had to do was persuade the bank to launch the product he needed , and then buy him himself.
When Barry came to the bank and expressed his thoughts, even the staff of the financial company persuaded Barry not to make such dangerous attempts.
And Barry's lines shocked them directly, and he asked: If real estate really falls, how can I make sure you have enough money to pay me. Is
very domineering? Wall Street will naturally not reject a lunatic like Barry.
So they claimed to be their best players and accepted Barry's proposal.
rule is that if the securities rise, Barry pays the insurance fee, and if the securities fall, the bet is established, and the financial company pays the compensation according to the decline.
Financial company decided to make $5 million in front of this fool, but Barry's small goal is to buy him 100 million first, and .
Then Barry came to another bank and invested 200 million in the same way.
one after another, Barry ran all over the circle, crazy spent $1.3 billion to short real estate securities.
thinks Barry is a lunatic, so naturally he is not just a financial company that sells his products.
His company's customers also felt that this person had a problem with his brain, so they asked to withdraw their investment and run away from the market. However, the stubborn Barry refused to refund.
This crazy game must be played with him.
On the other end, Mark Baum is a straight-minded securities boss.
This is a very conscientious alien financial person . He will point out all dirty means in the financial circle without mercy.
And Mark completely distrusts anyone and things in the financial world.
Why does Mark hate hypocritical capitalists so much?
Because of his brother, he fell into the capital trap, and jumped from the rooftop to .
That day, he accidentally learned that Barry had shorted real estate. He roughly checked the data, and it seemed that he was a bit troublesome.
So they specially invited Jared Wennet, who brought the news to him, to the company, and the genius obtained the precise result through the meticulous calculations of the Chinese actuary under his Chinese actuary.
When the mortgage overdues by exceeds 8% , real estate securities will be completely lost, and then the opportunity to get rich will come.
But if the credit status of real estate securities is so bad, why no one noticed it?
Because the financial community has invented a confusing product called CDO (guaranteed debt voucher) .
All single products that cannot be sold in are packaged and reorganized in to form a brand new product to avoid the exposure of its bad situation.
simply means to package all seemingly valuable financial products in a secondary manner, and then use the fictional value to lure unknown people to invest and promote product flow.
To put it bluntly, you have other people’s IOU in your hand, which may be at risk of being irrecoverable.
But you still use these IOUs as valuable exchanges for funds from others, so you should understand it very well.
What's scary is that this game is transitive.
Every CDO product can also be packaged and listed again with its own rise and fall while the content remains unchanged.
So a CDO product can be packaged into another , thereby increasing the volume of the entire market geometrically. The mode of
is called synthesis CDO.
may bring the concept of finance to make this behavior seem unfathomable, but in fact the essence is the same as many leveraged real estate speculation games in my country today.
uses loans and the value of the property itself to mortgage part of the funds in exchange for ownership of the property.
and then stimulate the market through reselling. When house prices rise, can exchange the down payment amount for the entire property .
Under such crazy operations, no one will consider the residential attributes of the real estate itself , and only care about constantly trading to gain benefits.
When more and more speculators use loan leverage, the physical real estate market is actually the same as the problem that the real estate securities market ultimately faces. .
To confirm whether the facts are really so unbearable, Mark's team conducted a field investigation.
The conclusion they came to is incredible. The actual situation in the real estate industry is that there are many cases of abandoning houses and loans being cut off from , and even crocodiles settled in the swimming pool of villas.
They found a real estate agent and found that all houses in the second-hand housing market were selling urgently.
The salesperson who handles the loan said that the number of mortgages has increased several times in the past few years, and they will also help unqualified mortgagees to handle the loan smoothly.
mortgagee only sees the benefits, while does not understand the risks in at all.
Speaking of loans, let me introduce to you LPR (loan market quotation interest rate) , which is a major interest calculation model currently implemented.
is actually the remaining one in the capital market. This kind of loan model with floating interest rates does have its own benefits when rebates are rebates in the early stage.
, once the lender of chooses to raise interest rates, it will cause a catastrophe to the mortgagee and may even become the first needle to burst the bubble.
And Barry doesn't even need to investigate. His view is more direct. The housing prices in have risen five times, but there is no change in per capita income , and the market is speculated.
is a bit familiar? Maybe we can compare how much housing prices in their respective surrounding areas have risen in the past ten years.
Interestingly, it seems that it is going to stop using properties as risk collateral recently .
You can taste it, you can taste it carefully.
This is like the process of killing others, and repeating on yourself .
has done all this, and the rest is waiting for the capitalist world to collapse .
But it is not that easy in reality. There is bank that provides a bottom line for real estate securities, and rating agencies are also helping .
This mess like dry firewood is just a waste of fire.
At this time, two unknown newcomers, Charlie, Jimmy and their partners, deduced that if the market collapses, subprime loans will inevitably affect the value of the advanced loans, so they invested in short securities with high credit ratings.
So the snowflakes fell, causing an avalanche.
Before the end of the world, the bank took advantage of the stalls that the public still knew about and sold a large number of CDO products it owned.
But they have no idea what they are going to face, and all external forces cannot stop the disaster from happening.
For every 1% drop in employment rate, 40,000 people in the United States may lose their lives.
Even financial companies represented by people who short real estate are facing shocks, and the crisis in the global capital market is coming.
Currently, there are many homeless people sleeping on the streets in the United States, but you may not believe that they have many who used to work on Wall Street .
Finally, the 2008 financial crisis evaporated the US 5 trillion US dollars of assets.
These money consists of Volkswagen's pension, real estate, pension, deposits and securities investment .
directly caused 8 million people to lose their jobs , of which 6 million people were homeless , and this is just data from the United States.
However, shortly after that, Wall Street launched a product called "customized hierarchical opportunity investment".
In fact, some people analyzed that this is simply because the CDO changed its name.
Capital never spits out bones when it comes to eating people.
Of course, there are many wonderful stories in the middle of this video, you can find the video and watch it yourself.
Maybe we didn't feel affected in 2008, but look at how familiar this story is.
And this is just the impact of capital games, what we are facing now is the global economic shrinkage caused by the epidemic .
When we were still using "Crude Oil Treasure" as a joke, countless people really broke all because of this mistake.
Of course, there will still be a winner in this game, and there will always be a winner.
but what happens to losers?
Here is a random movie recommendation, which will take you to see different film and television information, and tell you about entertainment popular science that you don’t know, just click to follow~
