丨 This article is reproduced with authorization from Guangming Military (ID: GM-junshi)
With the arrival of the Biden administration, a series of policies toward Russia have been introduced one after another, and what Russia is extremely concerned about is the fate of the "Beixi-2" project. Although the Biden administration has stated that it will impose sanctions on ship companies related to "North Stream 2", Russia strongly opposes it, and Germany, as an ally of the United States, also has differences with the United States. What is the significance of the completion of "Beixi-2" and what is its prospect?
"North Stream-2" project is of great significance to Russia
"North Stream-2" project is a cooperation project between Russia Gazprom and five European companies. Its purpose is to build a natural gas pipeline directly to Germany through the Baltic Sea. This natural gas pipeline can transport 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year, and for the first time, it will directly connect the Russian natural gas pipeline network to the European pipeline network without going through third-party countries, greatly reducing the cost of transporting natural gas in Russia. At the same time, Russia is also a major exporter of traditional energy, so Russia also has an extremely strong desire to export natural gas, thereby promoting the development of its own economy.
In fact, Russia exports natural gas not only to promote economic development, but also has political considerations. If the resource transportation line in Germany is built, it will be equivalent to using energy to open the door to Europe, and European countries' dependence on Russian natural gas will be further deepened. As a result, Russia has another bargaining chip in its influence on Europe.
Since the Nord Stream-2 project starts from St. Petersburg, Russia, directly connects to Graveswald in northeastern Germany. The line crosses the Baltic Sea without passing through the European continent, Russia has also reduced a transit fee. The "North Stream-2" natural gas pipeline is opened, and the amount of gas transported to Europe through Ukraine will be greatly reduced. If the natural gas pipeline transiting to Ukraine is not used, Ukraine will lose US$10 billion every year, and Russia will also take this opportunity to suppress Ukraine. Once Russian natural gas no longer transits to Ukraine, Ukraine will lose more than its income, but also lose the ability to threaten negotiations with Russia. The natural gas required by Ukraine is also basically imported from Russia, so Ukraine may be subject to Russia. As an important pawn in the confrontation between the United States and Russia, Ukraine will also gain the advantage of confrontation with the United States.
As the opponent of the United States, Russia has always had a stalemate with the United States in the military field, and the Russian economic field is one of the few things that the United States can do to it. After the Ukrainian crisis, Russia fell into economic blockade and political isolation by the United States and others, and the completion of the "North Stream 2" may enable Russia to break through the United States' "siege and interception". On the one hand, Russia will effectively respond to the US economic blockade, alleviate Russia's economic situation, and open up a new situation for Russia's economic development; on the other hand, Russia will carry out "natural gas pipeline" diplomacy in politics, breaking Russia's political situation again, and Russia and Europe are expected to enter a "abnormal period." From these aspects, Russia seems to be heading for another "spring" under the sanctions of the United States.
"North Stream-2" project has been unpredictable
In history, Germany has always been an important force in Europe and even the world. After Germany, carrying a heavy historical burden, was unified, it still relied on the EU in foreign policy, but the EU not only encountered internal divisions, but also continued to bear the constraints of the United States. German Chancellor Angela Merkel seems to have realized that Germany’s dream of a great power cannot be placed on the EU, nor can it expect to gain support from the United States. Germany must take its own path.
In recent years, Germany's economic development has been in the leading position in Europe and has played a certain leading role in various European affairs. At present, Germany has a growing voice in the EU. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany and France have promoted the construction of the EU credit system, promoted the integration of European military, and accelerated the independent research and development of weapons and equipment. From July 1, 2020, Germany began to serve as the rotating presidency of the EU for six months, and put forward the slogan of "making Europe stronger again."
Merkel is very clear that if Germany succumbs to the United States in the Nord Stream 2 project and accepts natural gas from the United States, then Germany and the European Union will be gradually controlled by the United States and become pawns for the United States to fight against Russia. Under this strategic intention, and the main source of German natural gas is Russia, Germany and Russia have begun to cooperate in the construction of the "North Stream 2" natural gas project.
In response to this, the United States firmly opposed it. Former President Trump fired all its energy and threatened Germany with various means, demanding that Germany stop the Nord Stream 2 project. On June 22, 2020, it announced that about 9,500 American soldiers would be withdrawn from Germany. In this way, the US troops stationed in Germany have reduced to 25,000; in addition, the United States also said that Germany provided financial assistance to the "autonomous army" occupying Seattle, with funds reaching 9 million euros. The United States expressed strong dissatisfaction with Germany's behavior. After the Biden administration came to power, it has increased sanctions on the "North Stream-2". In fact, every US government is trying hard to oppose the emergence of "North Stream-2".
However, Merkel was unmoved and insisted on building the Nord Stream-2, and said that it may impose counter-sanctions: "If this situation continues, Germany must consider taking serious measures to protect itself. For example, impose punitive tariffs on US natural gas." At the same time, Germany is considering pushing the EU to take joint action to oppose the US sanctions on the Russian-led energy project "North Stream-2".
Recently, German Chancellor Angela Merkel also made it clear that it will not link the Russian gas pipeline project "North Stream-2" to the sentence of Russian opposition Navani, and Germany's attitude towards the "North Stream-2" project will not change. Merkel stressed that he would continue to maintain dialogue with Russia and promote the construction of the "North Stream-2" project. Germany also said that it would not stop the "North Stream-2" project due to the Navalli incident. However, in the face of heavy pressure from the United States, the "North Stream-2" project is still uncertain.
"North Stream-2" project may be successfully completed in the future
At present, the debate over the "North Stream-2" natural gas pipeline has caused the administration of new US President Biden to sway between seeking to continue to put pressure on Russia and establish closer ties with Germany. According to the US " Wall Street Journal ", in a report on the "North Stream-2" project submitted to the US Congress, the US State Department neither proposed new sanctions against Russian companies nor proposed sanctions on certain German or other European companies participating in pipeline projects. The Wall Street Journal analyzed that this move is equivalent to acquiescing the project to continue to advance. Many members of the two parties in Congress are dissatisfied with this and they ask the Biden administration to further clarify their position.
In addition, although the Biden administration announced sanctions on Lucky and its company KVT-Rus in late January, in the latest report to Congress, the US State Department only mentioned that Lucky pipe-laying ship and KVT-Rus violated U.S. sanctions, did not mention any punitive measures, nor did it mention any new sanctions. Sadigev, vice chairman of the board of directors of Gazprom, which leads the "North Stream-2" project, said on February 19 that the project has been under implementation since the resumption of work in December last year, and they believe that the project can be completed. The completion of the "North Stream-2" project is not only conducive to promoting the development of Russia's economy, but also conducive to Russia's use of this to suppress Ukraine and gain the advantage of confrontation with the United States. Since the "North Stream-2" project also has a very far-reaching impact on Germany's development, Germany will not be linked to the Navalli incident, thus stopping the project. And now the United States' attitude towards the project has also begun to become undecisive. Perhaps, the "Beixi-2" project may be successfully completed in the future.
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