At the Shanghai Cooperation Summit held by Uzbekistan , cooperation between China and Russia on the fields of energy and security has been further deepened. The two sides have reached an agreement on the opening of the Siberian Power 2 natural gas pipeline. The project will break ground in 2024 and is expected to be delivered in 2029, which means that it will be 7 years before the official opening and operation of the "Siberian Power 2" natural gas pipeline.
So it is necessary to analyze whether there are any variables in this matter in seven years. In other words, Russia plans to use this pipeline to replace Beixi No. 2, which is already in a state of air suspension, whether it is a win-win situation or a cake.
First of all, we need to understand the causes and consequences of the Siberian Power 2 natural gas pipeline. In fact, the agreement on this pipeline is passed not a sudden agreement, but will be successfully passed after a long period of bargaining and the impact of the situation.
Because of this natural gas pipeline, there are more than one buyer in Far East , and there are also Japan. Japan is not a tropical country. In winter, like Europe, it has to face the problem of resisting the cold and keeping energy reserves. In Japan's plan, he has always wanted to detour Russia directly from the Mongolian natural gas pipeline to the far east and send it to Japan's mainland via the seabed to solve the problem of insufficient natural gas supply in Japan.
In China's idea, this pipeline is the most ideal to send to China through Mongolia. If there are more Japan on the line, then there will be variables in energy security in the future. After all, if you pass through one country more, you will have more concerns. Therefore, in the laying of this natural gas pipeline, China and Japan have always been a competitive relationship.
According to common sense, China and Russia have close ties, and it should be a foregone conclusion to reach an agreement between China and Russia. In fact, Russia maintains its businessman approach and is always waiting to be sold, that is, it depends on which China and Japan bid higher and then make a choice.
This selection process is very long. Over the years, China's comprehensive strength has risen to the second place in the world, and the demand for natural gas has increased dramatically. In the pursuit of failure, Japan reached an agreement with European and American countries to choose more expensive maritime transportation routes. What is more worthy of attention is the sudden outbreak of external factors, that is, the Russian-Ukrainian war, which further intensified the contradiction between Russia and the EU and EU countries, and the two sides launched a fierce battle in the energy field. For EU countries, Russia's defense has begun since the Soviet Union, and its thinking consciousness has been deeply rooted and will not be changed easily. The reason is that Russia's huge nuclear weapons reserves, and the other is the difference in religious beliefs. The deeper point is that Northwest European countries do not want to see such a country with super military strength around them, which makes them unable to sleep.
So in the face of Russia's suspension of operation of Nord Stream 2 and imposed energy sanctions on European countries, EU countries have no compromise and endured the cold and had to compete with Russia to the end. Under such an opportunity, the agreement between China and Russia on the Siberia force 2 natural gas pipeline will be smoothly reached.
The so-called variable refers to the attitude of Russia. Will the pipeline construction be on hold as the situation of the Russian-Ukraine war changes, or the relationship with European countries improves, and its pipeline construction is on hold? After all, data shows that the gas transmission volume of Beixi No. 2 is 55 billion cubic meters, while the gas transmission volume of Siberia Power 2 is 50 billion cubic meters. Can Russia have the ability to enable the operation of two pipelines at the same time. Although these concerns are reasonable, they ignore a basic fact, that is, the international political pattern cannot be changed overnight. The grudge between Russia and Western countries will never end with the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war. If Russia wants to have an important place in the future international pattern, cooperation with China's energy is imperative, even unprecedented. After all, the energy field is one of Russia's pillar industries. Only when maintaining in-depth cooperation with China will the Russian economy be more confident.
Secondly, energy security is very important for China. Its own natural gas resources can be used as a strategic reserve to deepen cooperation with overseas energy fields. Because the Taiwan Strait issue is still pending, if Western countries cut off the Malacca Strait in the future, China's oil and gas transportation channels from Middle East will inevitably be blocked. At that time, Siberian Power 2 and even more models of natural gas pipelines will play a big role.
So in the long run, the Siberian Power 2 natural gas pipeline will be opened in the future, which is definitely not an Painting , but a win-win situation for cooperation between China and Russia!
