We all know that A shares is a cyclical market with long bears and short bulls, which means that we are in a bear market decline cycle for a large amount of time, while only a small part of the time is in a bull market up cycle.
Judging from the data, the stock market trends of countries around the world over the past 10 years are quite gratifying, while A-shares are slightly deficient:
Indian stock market: 300% rise in 10 years
US stock market: 10 years 186% rise in 10
German stock market: 10 years 140% rise in 10
Thailand stock market: 10 years 185% rise in 10
Japanese stock market: 10 years 118% rise in 10
China stock market: 10 years 0.3%
Among them, 64% of the time is in a bull market cycle, while 36% of the time is in a bear market cycle;
The Japanese stock market is in a bull market cycle for 65% of the time, while 35% of the time is in a bear market cycle;
The German stock market is in a bull market cycle for 68% of the time, while 32% of the time is in a bear market cycle;
The Brazil stock market is in a bull market cycle for 64% of the time, while 36% of the time is in a bear market cycle;
The British stock market is in a bull market cycle for 71% of the time, while 29% of the time is in a bear market cycle;
The A-share market is in a bull market cycle for 42% of the time, and the remaining 58% of the time is in a bear market cycle. It is also worth mentioning that in the bull market cycle, there is actually a long time for to fluctuate and wash the market , which is the so-called early stage of the bull market. If this time is also included, A-shares may only have risen 30% of the time, while the remaining 70% of the time is spent in fluctuations and declines.
So, if you want to get good returns in A-share investment, you have to abandon the bear market and fluctuating market washing cycles, because in these cycles, it is difficult to make money and have more falls and less rises. Only in the bull market upward cycle can the winning odds and returns of buying be greater.
But for excellent investors, they prefer to make plans at the end of the bear market and the early stages of the bull market, because only by doing this can you get huge returns! ! ! This is something that cannot be achieved by buying operations in a bull market! !
The reasons are as follows:
1, Cheap chips
You should know that at the end of the bear market, it is basically a market with oversold, wrong killing, and a panic atmosphere, so at this time, sentiment defeats rationality. Most stocks will be amplified by the panic atmosphere in the bear market and the positive news will be narrowed.
and investors will find that after constantly buying undervalued and wrongly killed high-quality stocks, the stock price did not rise due to the improvement of performance. Therefore, most investors will begin to doubt whether their stitching and judgment are wrong, and even question whether they will enter a lower "collapse"!
This is the "panic opportunity" caused by market sentiment!
is like, in a bull market, , fell from 10 yuan to 6 yuan, which may be called an opportunity; in a bear market, the same stock fell from 10 yuan to 6 yuan, which many people think is a risk.
There are also such examples in reality. Everyone knows that the old man has always told him not to drink overnight water, but strangely, the same glass of water can be drunk from morning to afternoon? Is the logic very well-behaved? It takes 8 hours to put water from 10 pm to 6 pm, but it takes 8 hours to put water from 8 pm to 4 pm. Why can't the former drink the latter be enough? ?
So, once you enter the end of the bear market, you will find that most of the stock prices are low and the valuations are relatively low, but there are very few people who dare to buy. At this time, emotions will overcome thinking, and panic will dominate reason and make you feel anxious.
2, no one competes
At the end of the bear market, not many people will compete with you for these high-quality but cheap chips. Because the characteristic of the end of the bear market is that it is known that it is very cheap and underestimated, but it has no money to buy it.
For the A-share market, it is still a retail market with retail investors accounting for the main market value and institutional market value. Therefore, when most retail investors dare not buy, or even have no money to buy, the chips in the market will actually cause a situation of oversupply, resulting in constant downward pressure.
At this time, as long as you have enough funds, you can calmly pay for the bottom of the market at a low level, time and batches, because there will be no supply shortage caused by underestimation!
3. Time is long enough
. The oscillation wash time in the bottom area of the bear market is very long. There are actually several reasons:
First, that institutions and main forces need to have enough time to resolve the early trapped chips;
Second, that institutions and main forces need to have enough time to slowly fluctuate and wash the market, cut leeks, and even get most of the relatively low chips.
Therefore, at the end of the bear market, it will not be as simple as staying for only 1-2 months, or even 3-5 months. Often, the bottom area of the large-level bear market will stay for at least half a year, and 1-2 years is the best wash cycle.
This means that underestimated and cheap price areas will not be fleeting. In a real bottom area, the time for undervalued, high-quality chips to stay is very long, enough to spend a few months or even a year looking for the best buying point.
So, if you are anxious, you can’t eat meat tofu. If you have funds to layout in the bottom area of the bear market, you can adopt a batch layout method. You can use weekly or monthly as units. You don’t need to buy it every day, and you should not spend more money near the same price every day. Because, you have enough time to wait for a lower price to appear and a better opportunity will come. At the end of the bear market, it is capital, but what is lacking is not good prices, good stocks, and good layout opportunities.
4. There is enough space
Why do you have to buy at the end of the bear market? Because there is enough space! ! This space refers to the growth space of individual stocks with a bear and bull span! ! Show you a piece of data and you will understand what I mean!
1) From 2005 to 6124 points in 2007, there were 1,288 stocks with an increase of more than 100%, accounting for 88% of the 1,471 listed companies!
2) From 2005 to 6124 points in 2007, there were 949 stocks with an increase of more than 300%! It accounted for 65% of the 1,471 listed companies at that time!
3) From 2005 to 6124 points in 2007, there were 670 stocks with an increase of more than 500%! It accounted for 46% of the 1,471 listed companies at that time!
4) From 2005 to 6124 points in 2007, there were 323 stocks with an increase of more than 1,000%! It accounted for 22% of the 1,471 listed companies at that time!
5) In December 2012, , the GEM html started at 2585 points, and by 2015, the Shanghai Stock Exchange ended at 5178 points, and the number of stocks with an increase of more than 100% reached 2,437, accounting for 89% of the 2,744 listed companies! It is 1% higher than 88% in 2007!
6) The ChiNext started at 585 points in December 2012, and by the end of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2015, the number of stocks with an increase of more than 300% reached 1,106, accounting for 40% of the 2,744 listed companies!
7) The ChiNext started at 585 points in December 2012, and by the end of the Shanghai Stock Exchange at 5178 points in 2015, 422 stocks with an increase of more than 500%, accounting for 15% of the 2,744 listed companies!
8) The ChiNext started at 585 points in December 2012, and by the end of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2015, the number of stocks with an increase of more than 1,000% reached 96, accounting for 3.5% of the 2,744 listed companies!
Yes, you read that right. In every round of large-level bear bull span, the increase of individual stocks is so amazing, just like a 2-3-fold increase is basically the "starting price". You can get such individual stocks by buying with your eyes closed.
But if you want to get such profits, you must know how to lay out in the bottom area of the bear market. The reason is very simple. If you buy a stock at the end of the bear market and get a 100% profit in the bull market, the earlier you make a layout, the higher the probability of this, and the later the lower the probability.
If you only start buying after a bull market starts 1/3, then it is a pity that the probability of your 100% profit will drop from 88% to 58%, and the probability of getting 200%, 300%, or even more than 500% will also decrease by 1/3;
If you are even more unfortunate, you only start buying after a bull market starts 1/2, then the probability of your 100% profit will drop from 88% to 44%, and the probability of getting 200%, 300%, or even more than 500% will also decrease by 1/2;
and so on.
So, the later you enter the market, the smaller your profit margin and the greater your chances of taking over.This is why most excellent investors, most of the bull spoons who can make a lot of money, like to lay out in the bottom area of the bear market. This is an extremely high probability, extremely small risk, and an extremely favorable layout environment.
5. Bear and bull rules
The stock market is regular. Bull markets are blowing bubbles, and bubbles are squeezed in bear markets; bubbles will sooner or later be blown, and the bubbles will eventually be squeezed out and repeating.
stocks also have regularities. If there is no performance support, it will fall when it rises, it will only happen sooner or later. Similarly, if there is performance support, it will definitely rise when it falls, it will only be a matter of time!
So, no matter what the market is, you can win the final victory by identifying the stocks you can surely hold on to.
A stock may only have a 10% rise, and the remaining 90% of the days are either adjusting or falling. If you hold this stock 90% of the time, but sell it before the last 10% arrives because of the "long torture", it can only be a kind of sadness.
Finding rules, respecting rules, and implementing rules are the magic weapon to win!
Conclusion:
There are three types of people who cannot make a lot of money in the stock market:
First, that is, people who have no funds before entering the bottom area of the bear market;
Second, people who dare not make bold plans or even place heavy bets in the bottom area of the bear market;
Second, people who dare not make bold plans or even place heavy bets in the bottom area of the bear market;
The third is to give up the chips in the bottom area of the bear market and see the people who make small profits in front of you;
If you are one of these three people, congratulations, making big money in the stock market is not a chance for you. The bear market is to give others a chance, and the bull market is time to make others rich, and you are just one of the passers-by, and even someone else's "stepping stone"!
