After experiencing a sharp decline in the first half of the year, U.S. stocks ushered in a sharp rebound in July. Although JPMorgan Chase's "dead bulls" were bullish against the trend, saying that the United States will avoid recession and that U.S. stocks will rebound in the second half of the year; however, major banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are warning investors to remain cautious and pay attention to the risks of economic recession.
On Thursday, August 4, Wall Street investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Bernstein once again warned that the macroeconomic data of continued to deteriorate and corporate performance expectations were significantly lowered. The recent strong rebound of US stocks may be just a flash in the pan and will not continue.
Analysts represented by Goldman Sachs strategist Cecilia Mariotti said:
market positions may further increase in the short term, but there is no obvious sign that there is a positive change in the macroeconomic momentum. A brief strong rebound may actually increase the risk of a market falling again, rather than heralding the end of a bear market.
According to Goldman Sachs strategists, as investors flock to the stock market again in recent weeks, market positions have improved from the negative levels in June, and volatility in asset allocation may drive stocks up in the short term. However, it believes that if does not have a fundamental reversal upward trend, the technical rebound will only be another bear market rebound, and the decline will be even faster than the rise.
Ultimately, Goldman Sachs "doesn't believe we have crossed the real trough" and said that "the future trend may rely more on macroeconomic data."
Similarly, Bernstein holds the same view, with its strategists Sarah McCarthy and Mark Diver saying in a note Thursday that the cycle of lowering earnings expectations has just begun as equity funds flow out.
Although investors stopped buying stocks in the second quarter, stock funds have not seen a reversal of the "huge" outflow of up to $200 billion in the first quarter. We expect the stock market to fall again in the short term.
00 US stocks rose sharply in July, and major stock indexes recorded the largest single-month increase since 2020 this month, especially after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points. Investors are beginning to be optimistic that corporate performance has proven they can withstand soaring inflation and bleak consumption outlooks, while weaker economic data has led investors to increase bets on the Fed's turn to dovish stance.
However, as Wall Street News pointed out earlier, senior Fed officials have successively come forward to "spray cold water" to the market. There are many dovish officials among them, emphasizing that the market has misunderstandings about the Fed's statement and there is still a long way to go before inflation reaches the long-term goal of 2%.
BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, has clearly warned the market that
The market may have some misunderstandings about the Fed's policy prospects, and the sharp rise of US stocks last week may also be too optimistic. We do not expect the Fed to show a dovish stance in the near future, and investors still need to prepare for the US stock roller coaster in the coming months.
In addition, Envestnet co-chief investment director Dana D'Auria also said on Thursday that the market overestimated the possibility of the Fed turning to a dovish stance, and the recent rise in stocks represents a eased rebound and the stock market may not have bottomed out.
The stock market rebound after the Fed's July interest rate meeting was "a bit too much", and the market overestimated the possibility that the Fed would turn to a dovish stance. The Fed has room to continue hikes because the job market remains strong, which "greats the green light" for the Fed to continue to fight inflation.
The current price may still be a buying opportunity for long-term investors, and it is recommended that people tend to be investing in a broad market rather than focusing their positions on any particular company, especially the high-risk parts of the economic system.
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This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment goals, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article meet their specific circumstances. The market is risky, so you need to be cautious when investing. Please make independent judgments and decisions.
The recent strong rebound of US stocks is just a flash in the pan? 
