original first release | Jinjiao Finance
Author | Zelda
Edit | Jiaoye
sister-in-law shouted, Lithium king hit the limit.
Yesterday, Xu Xiang’s wife Ying Ying released the “Weekly Market Review”, naming days Qi Lithium Industry “the price has been overestimated.”
Ying Ying's personal public account
Today, Tianqi Lithium Industry hit the limit half an hour after opening, and directly opened the limit at the end of the trading session. The daily decline was 9.16%, closing at 134.45 yuan, and the market value evaporated by 20 billion.
At the same time, the entire lithium sector was dragged down by this, Shengxin Lithium Energy fell 8.91%, Rongjie Co., Ltd. fell 8.06%, and Ganfeng Lithium Industry fell 6.72%.
Lithium sector fell across the board
As the wife of the former "stock god", Ying Ying's words are so lethal. It's really just an unintentional move. Is Xu Xiang planning for a year after he was released from prison?
comments are reasonable?
When commenting on Tianqi Lithium Industry, Ying Ying used a professional term: Davis double-click.
Davis double-click was invented by investment master Davis. It is said that his family broke the curse of being rich for only three generations.
Simply put, when the performance of listed companies improves, earnings per share will naturally increase. At the same time, due to the improvement of performance, the market is willing to give a higher valuation, so the price-to-earnings ratio also increases.
and stock price = price-to-earnings ratio × earnings per share . At this time, both multipliers on the right of the formula rose, and the stock price rose sharply, which is Davis double-click.
Tianqi Lithium's previous trend does meet the description of Davis' double-click.
public information shows that Tianqi Lithium is the largest supplier of core materials for lithium battery new energy in China, and a leading enterprise with leading technology and strong comprehensive competitiveness in the domestic lithium industry, so it is also called "Lithium King".
2021 and the first quarter of this year, Tianqi Lithium Industry delivered outstanding results:
2021, operating income was 7.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 136.56%;
Operating income in the first quarter of 2022 was 5.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 481.41%. The revenue in the first quarter of this year has reached 68.6% of the whole year last year.
In 2021, Tianqi Lithium turned losses into profits, and its net profit attributable to shareholders increased from -1.834 billion to 2.079 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 213.37%;
profit situation further improved in the first quarter of this year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of the first quarter of this year 3.328 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1442.65%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the first quarter of this year was 1.6 times that of the whole year last year.
Tianqi Lithium Industry's performance is outstanding
After the annual report and first quarter report disclosure, Tianqi Lithium's valuation has been rising steadily, and the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) has rushed from 20.43x on May 5 to 38.66x on July 8 (the trading day before Ying Ying posted the article).
performance increased, and the price-to-earnings ratio increased, which is a typical Davis double-click.
2021 annual report and this year's first quarter report were released, Tianqi Lithium's stock price rose from 76.43 yuan to 148 yuan, with an increase of 93.64% in two months.
Tianqi Lithium Industry's stock price rose sharply
It can be seen that Ying Ying's judgment of Davis' double-click is relatively accurate. The more core question is: Has Tianqi Lithium Industry increased to overvalue?
From a historical perspective, Tianqi Lithium's stock price hit a record high on July 6, and is indeed near the high; the current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 35x, which has not yet reached a historical high.
Tianqi Lithium Industry's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was as high as 1000x
For the future of Tianqi Lithium Industry, unlike Ying Ying's "bearing", several new institutions have recently covered Tianqi Lithium for the first time, and gave research reports on "increasing holdings" and "strongly recommended" ratings.
Jinjiao Finance compiled the profit forecast of securities companies to Tianqi Lithium after the release of the 2021 annual report and the 2022 first quarter report on April 30.
Even on the day Ying Ying posted the article, Yangtze Securities also gave a profit forecast of 16.766 billion yuan attributable to the parent, a year-on-year increase of 706.5%.
Not long ago, at the end of June, Bohai Securities and East Asia Qianhai Securities had given profit forecasts with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 550%.
In addition, there are also major brokers such as Anxin Securities and Guosen Securities that have significantly increased their profit forecasts in recent months. The most exaggerated one is Guojin Securities . The profit forecast at the end of August last year was only 864 million yuan. The profit forecast updated on April 30 this year was 15.24 billion yuan, which increased the forecast by 17.64 times in just eight months.
comparison with peers. Among the five listed companies in Shenwan third-level industry (lithium) industry, Tianqi Lithium's price-to-earnings ratio is just in the middle, but compared with Ganfeng Lithium, which has a comparable size, Tianqi Lithium's price-to-earnings ratio is much higher.
calculated based on today's closing price, Ganfeng Lithium's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 24.64x, while Tianqi Lithium's is 35.12x.
However, Tianqi Lithium's valuation is higher than its peers, because of its outstanding performance growth.
In the first quarter of this year, Tianqi Lithium's revenue growth rate ranked first, more than twice that of Ganfeng Lithium, second in the growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders, and more than twice that of Ganfeng Lithium. Both ROE and gross profit margins are ranked second and significantly ahead of Ganfeng Lithium.
Based on the above comparison, it should be said that Ying Ying's judgment has a certain professional level, but it is not "a word of a promise", and it is not that simple.
In fact, since A shares 5 bottomed out and rebounded in April, the concept of new energy has led the rise for a long time, and the market has now had a long-term difference.
Therefore, there are also opinions that there are too many profit-making markets that people are thinking about falling. Ying Ying's words just gave a reason to go down the road.
How is the "Lady of the Stock God" made?
One sentence stops a company and collapses a sector. It is not Ying Ying who can have such influence, but the man behind Ying Ying is still in power.
Ying Ying's husband is Xu Xiang, the former "private equity leader". He started with a high school education of 30,000 yuan, and has a net worth of 25 billion yuan. The annual compound yield reaches an incredible 96%. He is called the "head of the hot money" by A-share investors.
In 1998, 20-year-old Xu Xiang had already shown the potential of "stock god". He made a profit of more than 3 million in stock trading in just 5 years, and made his mark in the famous Galaxy Securities Branch of Jiefang South Road in Ningbo.
At that time, Ying Ying, who was 2 years younger than Xu Xiang, had just arrived at this business department for a short time. After two years of knowing each other, they established a romantic relationship. On January 18, 2004, Xu Xiang and Ying Ying officially registered for marriage. At the wedding, Xu Xiang received a bronze statue with the engraved "Oriental Soros".
After marriage, Xu Xiang spent most of his time trading in the stock market. Ying Ying was still trading when she was about to give birth. When she heard her son coming, she danced to the computer. Ying Ying spent most of her time raising her children at home alone.
On November 1, 2015, Xu Xiang was directly taken away by the judicial department on the cross-sea bridge in Hangzhou Bay, Ningbo. The photos of him wearing a Hermes "white coat" instantly spread across the Internet.
Photo source: Internet
The true appearance of Ningbo Jiefang South Road suicide squad leader, hot money leader, and private equity leader appeared in public for the first time.
On January 22, 2017, Xu Xiang was sentenced to for manipulating the securities market and sentenced to for fixed-term imprisonment of 5 years and 6 months, with a fine of more than 20 billion yuan, setting the highest penalty for similar punishment in the Chinese securities trading market.
2019 In March, Ying Ying submitted a "Divorcement Indictment" to the People's Court of Huangpu District, Shanghai, declaring that his 15-year marriage with Xu Xiang has come to an end.
"God goes again, I want to divorce" . On the evening of the Chinese Valentine's Day in the same year, Ying Ying once again announced to the outside world on her personal WeChat official account that she wanted to divorce Xu Xiang, and asked the Qingdao court to identify the assets involved as soon as possible.
There is a view from the outside that Ying Ying's divorce appeal is a "technical divorce" and the purpose is to preserve the seized property. This statement was denied by Ying Ying.
She once revealed that all the property under Xu Xiang's name was frozen, and her family's life was very difficult. Even if the elderly were sick, there was no extra money to treat, and they could only rely on Xu Xiang's friends to help.
In November 2019, Ying Ying released the "Second Explanation on Divorce Cases", revealing that during the trial in Qingdao, Xu Xiang twice expressed his agreement to divorce and give up the custody of the child in court, and the divorce process lasted for 8 months and had no results. "The sky is on, I will continue to divorce!"
Since then, Ying Ying has posted information on her personal WeChat public accounts and Weibo many times, all focusing on "divorce", "asset identification", "equity freezing" and other content.
Until July 2021, Xu Xiang was officially released from prison after his sentence, and the marriage was not divorced.
After a year, things seem to have changed again.
On July 3, 2022, Ying Ying also "denied" relevant judges of Qingdao Intermediate People's Court on her personal official account and Weibo. On July 4 the next day, she published a "Weekly Market Review", and had previously published stock review content.
Ying Ying's personal public account
Yesterday, Ying Ying released the second "Weekly Market Review", naming Tianqi Lithium "price has been overvalued", which quickly attracted the attention of the capital market, and made people speculate whether Xu Xiang has "instructed".
According to the relevant penalty, Xu Xiang was cancelled from his fund qualifications. In the future, he could not manage funds as a fund manager. There is no explicit prohibition on buying and selling stocks in his personal identity. Some industry insiders also believe that it is not difficult to trade stocks through proxy holdings.
Comments are illegal?
After posting a comment, Ying Ying responded that she did not have the qualifications to invest in, and the weekly market comments she posted were personal hobbies; she did not buy or sell stocks, and did not participate in secondary market investment; she has no contact with Xu Xiang now. The listed company that was hammered to vomit blood and obviously could not accept this explanation.
According to the interview with "Daily Economic News", a secretary of the board of directors of a lithium company who did not want to be named expressed indignation:
"Today, retail investors are bleeding and cutting their flesh, institutions will compete for chips. What is the capital market ecology? A comment without investment advisory qualifications and irresponsible can make the market so move. What is the difference between this and the 'black mouth'? This is an obvious market manipulation!"
So, is Ying Ying's move considered a market manipulation? Is it illegal?
In fact, the law does not prohibit investors from expressing their personal opinions on individual stocks. Unless the comments are "ulterior motives", they may involve legal issues.
According to relevant regulations, engaging in investment forecasting, investment analysis, and investment advice related work needs to be approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. According to public information, Ying Ying is not engaged in related work at the moment, but instead has a regulatory "vacuum".
However, industry insiders believe that Ying Ying is not an ordinary person and has constituted the characteristic of a "public figure". Frequent stock reviews have a great impact on the market. It may be "suspected to engage in investment consulting-related business" and requires permission from the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
Currently, the corresponding person of the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that he has paid attention to the corresponding events.
What makes people even more curious is whether Ying Ying will continue to publish stock market comments after the huge waves in A-shares? Will Xu Xiang, who is behind it, return to the A-share market?
