Summary:
is consistent with yesterday's forecast. Today's spot market steel prices are mainly rising, and the overall operation is relatively strong. Recently, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation, deploy economic work in the second half of the year, release multiple positive signals, and boost market sentiment. However, considering the current poor terminal demand, steel prices may be adjusted and operated narrowly over the weekend.
Factors affecting steel prices:
1. The Central Political Bureau first proposed "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings". In the second half of the year, relief fund may be implemented
htmlOn July 28, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting. Regarding real estate, the meeting proposed to stabilize the real estate market, adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, implement policies based on the city, make full use of the policy toolbox, support rigid and improved housing needs, strengthen local government responsibilities, ensure and manage the delivery of buildings and stabilize people's livelihood.
analyst's opinion: In response to the previous "loan suspension" storm, in mid-July, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission proposed the "three guarantees" policy. Recently, "insurance and payment of buildings" has become a "hot word" policy from the central government to the local government, and stabilizing the real estate market will become the core of work in the second half of the year. In order to implement the policy of guaranteeing and paying for buildings, a national real estate relief fund policy may also be introduced in the near future. At the same time, the central government and various financial departments are expected to jointly introduce relevant policies in the second half of the year to promote the construction of real estate companies, ensure real estate delivery, and play an important role in driving the increase in upstream steel demand and promoting the development of the entire industrial chain. For the steel market, strengthening steel needs to be expected, which is beneficial to steel prices.
2. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: Guide and increase financial support for infrastructure construction projects
htmlOn July 25, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a 2022 mid-year work symposium and a symposium on discipline inspection and supervision work (TV telephone). The meeting required that the stability of the macro economy should be placed in a more prominent position, better play the role of countercyclical financial regulation, and fully implement a package of policy measures to stabilize the economy. Strengthen stabilizing enterprises and alleviating difficulties, and take the initiative to provide small and micro financial services. Carry out special rectification of random charges involving enterprises. Guide and increase financial support for infrastructure construction projects.
analyst's opinion: Financing issues have always been a key link that restricts the growth of infrastructure investment. According to the current requirements of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, we will guide the increase in financial support for infrastructure construction projects. In the next step, policy development banks will give full play to their low-cost and long-term advantages to match major projects with long financing recovery periods and low returns. Therefore, the investment in infrastructure projects is expected to accelerate, thereby driving the relevant demand for steel use, which is beneficial to steel prices in the medium and long term.
3, China Coal Industry Association and China Steel Industry Association carry out work exchanges
On July 27, 2022, Chairman of the China Coal Industry Association Liang Jiakun and He Wenbo, Secretary of the Party Committee and Executive President of the China Steel Industry Association, held work exchanges. During the exchange, the two sides agreed to hold a business exchange meeting next month to strengthen cooperation and exchanges between the two industries, strengthen supply and demand relations, and improve the level of cooperation, and jointly study how to establish a long-term stable supply and demand coordination model. Both sides agreed that coal and steel are both important basic industries that support the development of the national economy. In future work, we must further strengthen communication and contact, improve the working mechanism, and jointly make greater contributions to maintaining the stable operation of the coal-steel and coke industry chain and supply chain, and promoting the high-quality development of the industry.
Analysts' view: Affected by the sluggish real estate market this year, steel demand continued to be weak in the first half of the year, and the steel industry faced severe challenges, and coal enterprises, as the upstream of the steel industry, are also under pressure. This time, the China Coal Industry Association and the China Steel Industry Association held a work exchange, which is expected to improve the supply and demand relationship of steel raw materials such as coke, stabilize the market, and promote the stable operation of coal and steel prices.
Market price
Today's steel price rose
Zhonggang.com APP data shows:
Rebar 24 markets, 23 rose 20-100, no decline, 20 The average price of mmHRB400E is 4138 yuan/ton, and the average price is 62 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day; among the
1 hot coil 24 markets, 17 rose 20-100, without a decline, and the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled plate coil is 3978 yuan/ton, which is 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day; among the 22 markets of
medium and thick plate, 20 rose 10-60, without a decline, and the average price of 14-20mm ordinary medium and thick plate is 4258 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day.
According to data from China Steel Network Information Research Institute, a total of 26 steel mills have adjusted their prices today, of which:
has been raised by 21, accounting for 80.8%, with a price adjustment of 10-130 yuan/ton, with the highest increase of Licheng Taihang Rebar;
has been downgraded by no one;
has been stable, accounting for 19.2%.
According to the data of the China Steel Network APP: st period steel small increase 
Today's thread main futures rose 25 to close at 3996, an increase of 0.63%; the main hot coil main 28 to close at 3969, an increase of 0.71%; the main coke main 66.5 to close at 2822.0, an increase of 2.41%; the main coke main 68.5 to close at 2133.5, an increase of 3.32%; the main iron ore rose 14.0 to close at 782.0, an increase of 1.82%.
Steel price forecast
Macro, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting recently to release multiple positive signals and boost market sentiment. From the supply and demand perspective, blast furnace production reduction and gradual digestion of inventory, the expectation of supply-side shrinkage is enhanced, which is beneficial to steel prices; at the same time, the recovery of profits brought by the deep decline in finished steel has improved the enthusiasm of some steel companies to resume production. In addition, the coke inventory gap is large, and the demand for raw materials has increased recently, driving the rebound of raw material prices, which in turn has supported the prices of finished materials.
However, considering that the rise of spirals in this period is limited, the transaction volume slowed down compared with yesterday after the spot price increase. The current poor terminal demand is still the most direct factor affecting steel prices. It is expected that steel prices may adjust and operate in a narrow range over the weekend, and some will fall back.
