If the UK voted to leave the EU, it would be a devastating blow to the pound. 29 of the 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that if the pound leaves the EU, the pound will fall to 1.35 or even lower in the next week, and the pound last fell to 1.35 in 1985. There are 23 economists expect the pound to remain weak within the three months after the referendum, and even seven economists expect the pound to fall below 1.20 after the referendum, and one economist expects the pound to rise above 1.40, a level higher than the nearly nine-year low of 1.3882 that hit Wednesday intraday. Bloomberg economists expect the pound to fall after the referendum
Since 2016, the pound has fallen by more than 2% against the G10 currency, as the prospect of the UK economic recovery is worrying and Brexit concerns pose an obstacle to the Bank of England's interest rate hike. British Prime Minister Cameron announced last Saturday that the pound's decline accelerated, and politicians to business leaders have expressed their views on this. The situation worsened by the mayor of London's announcement that he would support Brexit. Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at the Bank of Netherlands, said that if the pound leaves the EU, it will severely hit the pound exchange rate, and the pound is expected to fall below 1.20 after the referendum. The pound will also be hit by slowing economic growth and delayed expectations of interest rate hikes, while capital outflows and financing the current account deficit will also be under pressure. Nick Kounis is one of the economists interviewed above. The pound is becoming a political football (referring to a debated political issue). Those who left the EU in the UK quoted a warning from Goldman Sachs: The withdrawal of the pound from the EU may cause the pound to plummet by 20%. The mayor of London publicly expressed support for Brexit on Monday (February 22), with the pound hitting its biggest single-day decline since 2010. In the UK, Johnson is one of the most attractive politicians who compete with Cameron. Bank of England Governor Carney said on Tuesday (February 23) that the recent decline in pound is attributed to a Brexit referendum and there is absolutely no interest in implementing negative interest rates. Ebury chief risk officer Diaz-Alvarez said that if the UK votes to withdraw from the EU, the Bank of England will deal with the situation by cutting interest rates, and interest rates will be reduced to zero from the current record low of 0.5%. The Bank of England will take this action shortly after the vote. Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank in London, said that if exiting the EU becomes a fact, the pound will plummet immediately, but it may also recover some of the previous lost ground. The pound is expected to be in the 1.25-1.30 range within a week after the vote, and the exchange rate will rise to the 1.35-1.40 range in three months. At 21:00 Beijing time, the pound pound was 1.3910/12 against the US dollar.
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