There is no doubt that Russia's military operations against Ukraine , which began on February 24 local time, shocked the entire Western world, and also made Taiwan independence elements frightened: If the United States dares to abandon Ukraine, then will Taiwan, which is also not a member of NATO , also be abandoned?
But interestingly, at this time, someone in Japan put forward a completely different view: The Russian-Ukrainian War is a great thing for Taiwan!
According to reports, the person who raised this magical view was Akio Yada, director of the Taipei Branch of the Japanese Sankei Shimbun.
Akio Yaadai first pointed out: Putin dared to be so bold on the Ukraine issue, and one of the important encouragement factors is the United States: the United States actually knew Putin’s intentions very early, but it gave up the option of military intervention early, and even publicly confronted Putin by Biden himself - "Under no circumstances can the United States send troops into Ukraine." Whether this approach is a careful consideration or a low-level mistake by the United States, it is still unclear whether it is a deliberate decision by the United States, but Akio Yamato clearly told Taiwan that this approach will indeed have an encouragement effect on mainland China, and mainland China will also engage in a wave of "cognitive" war, that is, spreading remarks such as " Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow ", "The US military will not come", and trying to "undermine the unity within Taiwan, create confrontation, and affect the local elections at the end of the year."
But Akio Yaadai then gave Taiwan independence elements a "peace of mind" and declared confidently: , but this does not mean that this is a bad thing for Taiwan. On the contrary, Taiwan's value in the eyes of the Western world will increase as a result -
After the lessons of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States and the entire West will reflect on their failures on the Ukraine issue, rethink their strategies for dealing with China-Russia cooperation relations, and then cherish the remaining Taiwan more and will work harder to "defend Taiwan" to restrain mainland China.
Ukraine is over, so will Taiwan benefit from it? Akio Yatani has more than the one who has similar optimistic ideas.
For example, Taiwan's United Daily News wrote an article claiming that the military power comparison between the mainland and Taiwan is highly similar to that between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, this Ukrainian war is an extremely precious war preview for Taiwan. :
This allows the Taiwanese authorities to observe how a modern war that they may face works at a close distance. It can urge the Taiwan defense department to review its defensive power defects in advance, and make Taiwan prepare for confrontation in advance in all aspects. In addition, the bonus of the natural barrier of Taiwan Strait , Taiwan's winning rate is actually not low in this possible war.
In addition, the article also puts forward a view similar to Akio Yaadai:
After losing Ukraine, the US authorities are destined to be more careful and cherish Taiwan. After all, Biden's original intention of giving up Ukraine was to give priority to defending the interests of the Asia-Pacific region. After Ukraine, the United States finally has enough strength and energy to deal with China.
And the Ukrainian crisis can also become a kind of rehearsal for the US authorities to deal with the Taiwan issue, which can make the United States clear about China's ideas for dealing with the Taiwan issue in the future - there is no doubt that this war is also an inspiration for the mainland, and the mainland is destined to follow Russia's approach when resolving the Taiwan issue.
But will things really be as optimistic as the Japanese and Taiwanese think? This actually involves the key question mentioned before: Now that Ukraine is like this, is this Biden's strategic plan or a simple low-level mistake?
Yes, Biden did say at the beginning of his tenure that China is the "big strategic threat" of the United States. The Asia-Pacific region is a region where the United States must concentrate its efforts to defend first. Therefore, Taiwan is destined to be a strategic outpost that the United States must defend. If Taiwan is thrown away, it means that the United States' strategy of containment of China will be completely failed, the United States' Asia-Pacific strategic assets will suffer major losses, the United States' reputation among allies will suffer major setbacks, the United States' global strategic situation will from offense to defense, and the United States' decline will truly begin.
But the problem is that at the beginning of his career, Biden also said this: Fixing the North Atlantic Cross-strait relations is an important task of this administration, and the United States must become a leader in the democratic world again.
Biden
Only when we know the existence of this sentence can we understand the United States’ calculations for the Ukrainian crisis: What the Biden administration wants to repair is not the friendship between the United States and Europe, but the dominance of the United States in European affairs —In addition to Russia, which is ready to move, EU with France and Germany as its core also hopes to drive the United States out of Europe at all times.
Therefore, in Biden's view, provoking the Ukrainian crisis is undoubtedly a good way to suppress Russia and the EU at the same time:
Forced Russia to attack Ukraine can not only completely smear Russia and cut off the possibility of cooperation between Russia and the EU; it can also make "fear of Russia" return to the hearts of small European countries, so that they can realize the importance of US military power; it can also prove that the EU is unable to fight against Russia alone, thus allowing the entire Europe to gather around the United States again.
But a discerning person can see immediately that if Biden really wants to concentrate on defending the Asia-Pacific, then he should be completely quiet in Europe. Even if he wants to repair cross-strait relations in the North Atlantic, he should be making a fuss in China and other aspects, rather than taking action in Europe, leaving hidden dangers to the strategy of "moving the strategic center of gravity eastward".
U.S. and Russia confront
Facts prove that Biden's greed that wants all kinds of interests really cost him a heavy price:
Biden may think that Putin will leave it alone after making a big fuss, or at most he will be done by acknowledging the independence of the two states in the east of Ukraine. But unexpectedly, Putin dared to launch a full-scale armed offensive against Ukraine with the ultimate goal of establishing a pro-Russian regime.
This downward pressure came to the United States:
Putin clearly put on the stance that he wanted to kill all opponents, but the United States could not show the same domineering momentum at all - the United States' original intention was to concentrate its strength in the Asia-Pacific region, and it is impossible for it to re-invest strength in the European battlefield.
But since the United States clearly has an attitude of being unable to respond, those small Eastern European countries that were launched in the face of Putin's tyranny have to start considering such a pragmatic issue: Since the United States clearly says it is unable to defend Eastern Europe, then should we also start to consider pleasing between the United States and Russia than to defect to the United States and seeking one-sidedly?
There is no doubt that it is Taiwan that plays the role of these small Eastern European countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
Taiwan issue
So we can confirm the fact from the Taiwan independence elements:
No matter how Biden planned it at the beginning, Putin's decisive actions have proved that the United States and the entire Western world today are a group of weak people who only have their own small profits in their eyes. They have no qualifications to bargain with China and Russia, and they have no courage to fight for such marginal interests as Taiwan.
Of course, these Taiwan independence elements can be said to be that today's Taiwan is the core of the United States' strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific region, and the United States cannot lose it.But what we want to point out is that the premise for this statement is that the United States is still huge enough and has sufficient interests in the Asia-Pacific region to protect. But As the United States continues to weaken, when the United States has fewer and fewer interests in the Asia-Pacific region, or its global interests are challenged to varying degrees, making the United States unable to take care of itself, is Taiwan's position in the eyes of the United States still that important?
The decline of the United States
Interestingly, compared to Akio Yamato, who is afraid of the world, this article in Taiwan's United Daily News talked about Taiwan's "favorable factors", but it was not unaware of how naive his thoughts were. At the end of the article, he pointed out that for the Taiwanese authorities, the greatest educational significance of this Ukrainian war is not at the military level, but at the political level: the cowardice of the United States and the entire West is the biggest inducement for Putin to dare to take action. Therefore, no matter how Taiwan strengthens its defense, as long as the United States cannot make up its determination to defend Taiwan by armed means - even if it is just not willing to defend Taiwan explicitly after the crisis escalates - this will cause the situation to quickly slide towards the unfavorable side of Taiwan and even become the main driving force behind the outbreak of the war.
So for the DPP authorities, it is better to quickly recognize your weak position than to continue to pin your hopes of Taiwan independence on the deterrence of the United States, "Learn to use superb political skills and find out the way for the two sides of the Taiwan Strait to coexist is the best way for Taiwan to survive."
But can the DPP authorities really listen to such insights nowadays? We are highly skeptical of this.
