Author: Wulou
The U.S. Senate Foreign Affairs Committee passed the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 with a 17:5 vote on September 14. The bill is regarded as a supplement to the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 (TRA), intended to reconstruct the US policy toward Taiwan over 40 years, such as expanding the provision of "defensive" weapons to Taiwan as provided to Taiwan to provide weapons to "deterror" mainland China; giving Taiwan a "mainly non- NATO allies" (MNNA); requiring the State Council and the Ministry of Defense to accelerate arms sales to Taiwan; providing Taiwan with US$6.5 billion in military aid directly to Taiwan for the first time, including training for the Taiwan military. Other similar terms of support from Taiwan violate the three joint communiqués of China and the United States, and in essence continue to emptiate the "one China policy" adhered to by the United States, from "strategic ambiguity" to "strategic clarity". If the bill is finally passed by Congress and signed into law by the president, it will completely change the United States' policy toward China over the past 40 years.
On September 14, Mao Ning, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that the bill seriously violates the US commitments to China on the Taiwan issue, violates the one-China principle of and the three Sino-US joint communiqués, interferes in China's internal affairs, violates international law and basic norms of international relations, and sends serious wrong signals to the separatist forces of "Taiwan independence". China firmly opposes this and has made solemn representations to the US. She emphasized that the one-China principle is the political foundation of Sino-US relations and the core connotation of the three Sino-US joint communiqués. If the case continues to be reviewed and promoted or even passed, it will greatly shake the political foundation of Sino-US relations and will have extremely serious consequences for Sino-US relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. "China will take all necessary measures to resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity depending on the progress and final result of the case."
The "bill" was jointly proposed by Senate Foreign Committee Chairman, Democratic Senator Bob Menendez from New Jersey , and Republican federal senator Graham (Lindsey Graham) from South Carolina. Both of them led a delegation to visit Taiwan in the first half of this year, and accelerated the promotion of the "Taiwan Policy Law" after the US House of Representatives Speaker Speaker Pelosi ( Nancy Pelosi ) visited Taiwan in August. Their purpose is very clear, which is to continue to use Taiwan to kidnap US policy toward China through legislation and accelerate strategic confrontation with China. White House National Security Advisor Sullivan (Jake Sullivan) expressed concerns about the content of the bill, and he also consulted with Democrats of the committee many times, hoping to modify the sensitive content and reduce the provocative meaning of the bill.
▲On April 14, U.S. Senator Graham led a delegation to visit Taiwan.
U.S. lawmakers' promotion of new bills involving Taiwan is related to the current U.S. Congress showing a tough consensus on China. Against the backdrop of the Biden administration's launch of comprehensive strategic competition and confrontation with China, while , the White House, and Congress are constraining each other, they are also working together to strengthen the efforts to play the Taiwan card. This is also the practice of the right-wing forces during the Trump administration. To truly understand the background of the "Taiwan Policy Law", we must start with the United States' "Relations with Taiwan Law" and the "Six Commitments".
On March 28 and 29, 1979, less than three months after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the US Congress passed the "Relations with Taiwan Act". A week later, then-Democratic President of the United States, Carter signed the bill. Under the bill, the United States sells the necessary amount of arms for defense to Taiwan. On August 17, 1982, China and the United States negotiated and signed the third joint communiqué , namely the " August 17 Communist ". However, in order to reduce the impact on Taiwan, then-US President Ronald Reagan made a verbal "six guarantees" commitment to Taiwan, and the Taiwanese authorities announced it to the public on August 18 of that year. These "six guarantees" were ultimately not implemented as effective legal texts as communiqués or laws.
The "Relations with Taiwan Law" and the "Six Guarantees" run contrary to the three joint communiqués of China and the United States. In essence, it is to put the domestic law of the United States above international obligations and is illegal and invalid. But in the United States, they are included in the United States' "one-China policy". From Clinton , Bush to Obama , they all emphasized the law in public and reiterated the "six guarantees" to Taiwan. Among them, during his visit to China in 2009, President Obama missed the "six guarantees" when he expressed his one-China policy in public, which aroused dissatisfaction with China's hawks and the Taiwanese authorities in the United States. The White House then urgently issued an "six guarantees" to make up for emergency public relations.
During the Obama administration, the mainstream US policy toward Taiwan was challenged by both liberals and conservatives. The liberals demanded a reconsideration of the US policy toward Taiwan, abandon the "Relations with Taiwan Law" and the "six guarantees" for Taiwan, and the academic community also showed a "abuse of Taiwan". According to WikiLeaks' content released, even the then-US Secretary of State Hillary was open to this argument. On November 11, 2011, Sullivan, who was then an assistant to Hillary, forwarded an article to Hillary via email on "Abandoning Taiwan and saving the American economy." The article believes that the biggest threat to US national security is debt. The Obama administration can consider ending US arms sales to Taiwan and abolishing the US-Taiwan defense agreement in exchange for the mainland to give up US $1.14 trillion in debt to China. Hillary replied at the time, "This is a clever idea, let's discuss it." After the content of this email was exposed, it aroused dissatisfaction among the pro-Taiwanese factions in the United States.
had different ideas from the liberals at that time, while American conservatives demanded further enhancement of US-Taiwan relations. In July 2016, the House and Senate under the control of the Republican Party successively passed the "Co-Resolution 88" and "Co-Resolution 38" to express the "six guarantees" in writing, characterizing it with the "Taiwan Relations Law" as an important cornerstone of US-Taiwan relations, and requiring the President and the State Council to publicly recognize this. However, this joint resolution only expresses the position of the Congress, does not require the president's signature, and does not have legal efficiency, but it reflects the political consensus between the two parties in the US Congress. During the same period, , the U.S. Republican Party, , incorporated the "six guarantees" into the Republican Party Constitution.
took Trump's defeat of Hillary as a feng shui. After the US right wing took power, it changed the Sino-US competitive and cooperative relationship and upgraded it to a strategic game with China. Especially on the Taiwan issue, the United States' right-wing forces have increased their efforts to support Taiwan. During the transition period of power, Trump even answered a call from Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen. Under the countercurrent of populism and anti-globalization, American liberals have also begun to reflect on China's policies over the past 40 years, and have begun to align with conservatives on China's policies, increasing their suppression of China in the fields of trade, finance and technology. It was also during this period that the US Congress passed the Taiwan Exchange Act, the Taiwan AIA International Protection and Strengthening Initiative Act of 2019 and the Taiwan Guarantee Act, and the Taiwan Guarantee Act, which was finally signed into law by Trump. Trump's signing of these laws is to some extent to show his toughness towards China by playing the Taiwan card during the election, so as to boost the election situation and lead to a spiral decline in Sino-US relations.
▲In March 2018, Trump, then President of the United States, signed the "Taiwan Travel Act", declaring that mutual visits between the United States and Taiwan are in line with US laws.
The current "Taiwan Policy Law" is a continuation of this Taiwan card and a political product of the two parties in the United States. However, the content is more radical than the Taiwan-related bill signed during the Trump period, and it is an infringement of China's sovereignty over Taiwan. But since it is a product of the two parties' political products, it still has a certain amount of room for maneuver. On the one hand, Congress has vigorously promoted similar Taiwan-related bills to constrain the executive's policies toward China; on the other hand, such bills have passed through the Congress, which is also the result of the Biden administration's tacit consent. Biden took office and continued the Trump-era policies, to some extent, in order to prevent being criticized by the Republican Party as weak towards China. On the Taiwan issue, the Republican Party has been pressuring Biden to take a more pro-Taiwan stance.In the first half of this year, Biden mentioned on many occasions that the US military would "co-visit" Taiwan and accused of US House Speaker Pelosi from Taiwan.
Taiwan issue is the most sensitive and core issue in Sino-US relations. In recent years, the United States has frequently introduced Taiwan-related bills in order to strengthen the United States' unilateral commitment to Taiwan, which will only further corrode the political foundation of Sino-US relations. What will eventually go by the "Taiwan Policy Law" depends on the power game between the US Congress and the White House. At present, the House of Representatives has not issued its own version, and the voting time of the whole Senate has not been determined.
Because the content of the "Taiwan Policy Law" is too provocative, the White House is still in contact with the Senate to adjust some of the contents. According to media reports, the White House believes that the "sovereignty symbolic" measures in the bill will not help ensure Taiwan's security. Some bipartisan members also expressed concerns when the Senate Foreign Commission passed the bill. Former Republican presidential candidate Romney (Mitt Romney), who is also a member of the committee, has doubts about some of the provisions, believing that it is unlikely to become law if voted in the current version, because the content is indeed extremely provocative.
The drafter of the bill hopes that Congress will pass the bill before the end of this Congress in January next year. If the bill is revised and passed through the two houses of Congress, the final version placed on Biden's table may be very different from the original version. Therefore, bill drafters are also considering including the main contents of the bill in the "French Year 2023 National Defense Authorization Act", the only major legislation that may be passed before the November midterm elections in the U.S. Congress.
What attitude and position will the Biden administration take next towards Congress, and what kind of exchange of interests will be made with Congress have not yet been determined. Biden's current top priority is still economic and inflation issues, and he does not want such bills to distract himself. If he continues to choose to adopt a tacit consent or surrender to Congress and allow the bill to pass through the barriers in Congress without any amendment, the influence of the US legislature on US foreign policy will reach its extreme, and Sino-US relations will only face greater risks and challenges.
